pablo-lopez.jpg

Pablo Lopez has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder, and it's not going to be a short-term injury. The Twins announced Wednesday night that Lopez is going to miss 8-12 weeks as a result of the injury, with the earliest he could even begin a throwing program being four weeks from now, with no updates on his status expected until then.

It's a big blow for Lopez, who was finally avoiding the slow starts that have become a recurring issue for him in recent years. The earliest we'll see him at this point is likely late July in a best-case scenario, with a late August return on the table. And it's a big blow for Fantasy players, who suddenly have an ace-shaped hole in their lineup. Here are some replacement options to look for on the waiver wire if you lost Lopez, beginning with the likeliest name to replace him in the Twins rotation:

Here's who else we're looking to add from Wednesday's action:  

Pablo Lopez replacement targets

  • David Festa, SP, Twins (12%) – Festa was scratched from his scheduled start at Triple-A St. Paul Wednesday, a seeming sign that he'll be the replacement for Lopez, and he should get a long runway here. Festa had a 1.39 ERA and 26.8% strikeout rate in three starts back in April, but gave up a lot of hard contact and didn't finish five innings in any of his starts. So, he's certainly not a perfect pitcher by any means, and Rocco Baldelli's conservative approach to handling his young pitchers could continue to hold him back. But there's real upside, and he's seemingly about to get a long runway, making him a viable replacement for Lopez, if not a perfect one. 
  • Eury Perez, Marlins (75%) – With Perez slated to make his return from Tommy John surgery Monday of next week, he should absolutely be 100% rostered at this point. That's not to say he's guaranteed to be dominant – just look at his teammate Sandy Alcantara or erstwhile Braves ace Spencer Strider's struggles for proof – but you just don't find this kind of upside available on the wire. The last time we saw Perez on the mound, he was a 20-year-old wunderkind who struck out 29% of opposing batters en route to a 3.15 ERA. Even after missing all of last season, he has only just turned 22. He could struggle, but the stuff has looked great on his rehab assignment, and his new-look curveball has the potential to miss even more bats than his old one. Perez's age and stuff give him true ace potential, and he might represent your only real chance to actually replace Lopez. 
  • Zebby Matthews, Twins (48%) – Matthews' spot in the Twins rotation seems a lot more secure now, too, though he has the same issue Festa does, as we saw Wednesday: He pitched well, limiting the Athletics to one run over five innings, but was pulled after just 77 pitches. He has failed to pitch into the sixth inning in three of his four starts to date, though with a 5.21 ERA, it's hard to fault Baldelli too much for that. But Matthews has shown some promise, striking out 25 batters to eight walks in 19 innings of work. The extra velocity has mostly stuck around, leading to more missed bats, and if he can just lock in a bit, there's real upside here. 
  • Edward Cabrera, Marlins 31% – I've mostly been unwilling to buy in on Cabrera, but The Athletics' Eno Sarris had a note that piqued my interest Tuesday. He noted that Cabrera has lowered his arm slot, started throwing his sinker more than his four-seamer, and has had the best command of his career over the past five starts. It might be nothing. A hot streak from a notably mercurial starter. But Cabrera's always had high-level stuff, and if he can have even just normal bad control instead of some of the worst in the majors, the upside here is clear. You've gotta take some swings if you're going to have any hope of replacing Lopez, and Cabrera could be a big swing. He finished May with 28 strikeouts to eight walks in 27 innings while putting up a 2.00 ERA, so let's see what he can do moving forward. 
  • Shane Bieber, Guardians (58%) – If you can be a little patient, Bieber is working his way back from his own elbow surgery and could carry some upside of his own. He's set to make a minor-league rehab start Friday at Double and seems like he's probably a few weeks away from returning to the majors himself. It's been a few years since Bieber was a Fantasy ace, but he gave us a tantalizing glimpse of that upside in two starts last season as he struck out 20 in his first 12 innings before blowing out his elbow. If he shows anything like that kind of upside in the minors, he's going to be a lot more rostered than this pretty soon.

Let's get to the rest of what you need to know about from Wednesday's action, and we'll start with some extended thoughts on one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to figure out right now: