Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: One brutal start may not be reason enough to give up on Chase Burns

How bad was Chase Burns' start Monday night against the Red Sox? Well, he didn't get out of the first inning and was tagged for five earned runs (seven total) on five hits and a couple of walks while recording just one out, so … It was really, really bad!

It was just the ninth start of the season where a pitcher failed to get out of the first inning while allowing at least five runs, which, to be honest, is more than I expected this season. But, with Burns so early in his career, I wanted to see if there were other examples of rookie pitchers who struggled this badly in a start and still went on to have success as a rookie, so I fired up Baseball-Reference.com's Stathead tool to look. 

Here's where I set the parameters: Less than one inning pitched, at least five runs allowed as a starter in a pitcher's first 10 career appearances over the past decade. And you know what: There are a few pretty good pitchers who struggled through at least one start like this this early in their careers. Just last year, in fact, Yoshinobu Yamamoto gave up five runs in his very first MLB start, and that has somehow not kept him from enjoying a very successful career so far. Jose Berrios also had a similar start as a rookie, as did Eury Perez, and it didn't wreck either of their careers. 

That's not an especially long list of pitchers who have had a start this bad early in their careers and went on to have successful careers (or, in Perez's case, look on their way to one), of course. I recognize that. It's rare for any pitcher to struggle this badly at any point in their career. But I bring up Yamomoto, Berrios, and Perez to highlight that, as discouraging and frustrating as this game was from Burns, it doesn't necessarily mean he can't be a good pitcher. And it doesn't really change how I view him moving forward.

As bad as Burns was, he averaged 99.3 mph on his four-seamer, and his slider still had plenty of bite. The command was, I think it goes without saying, awful, as he left a bunch of sliders up in the zone and caught too much of the plate with his four-seamer, too. Your command has to be terrible to have a start this bad, and there's good reason to believe Burns was tipping his pitches – his glove placement and leg raise were slightly different when he threw his four-seamer compared to his slider, and against major-league hitters, that might be enough to ruin your night. 

The stuff is still terrific, and I'm still willing to bet on Burns figuring things out and becoming an impact arm for Fantasy. Am I less convinced of that than I was a few hours ago? Sure, you'd have to be, especially in the near term. But let's not forget that stretch from Jesus Luzardo about a month ago, where he gave up 20 runs in just 5.2 innings of work and totally wrecked his season-long ratios; in four starts since then, he has a 2.78 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of work.

So, let your faith in Burns be shaken by this start. But don't give up on him. He's still one of the most talented young arms in baseball, and one start doesn't change that. One start, even one as bad as this one, will never define a pitcher. Whatever went wrong for Burns Monday night, I have faith he'll get it sorted out, and in the long run, this will go down as just a footnote in a successful career. 

Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: 

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Austin Hays, OF, Reds (48%) – He just keeps on hitting. This time, it was a homer, a triple, and three RBI in a 2 for 4 game against the Red Sox Monday that pushes his season-long OPS back over .900. Is Hays that good? Not necessarily,  but his underlying stats are the best they've ever been, and he calls one of the best hitters' parks in baseball home for half of his games, so I just don't see much point in being skeptical. Hays is going to hit something like .260 with at least a 25-homer pace the rest of the way, and the biggest thing holding him back is just health right now. But while he's out there, I think Hays might just be a top-36 outfielder. 

Gary Sanchez, C, Orioles (26%) – I didn't expect to get to this point, but I think Sanchez might be more or less a must-add player in two-catcher leagues if you need help at the position. He went 2 for 5 with three RBI Monday and now has multiple hits in three of his past four games, and he's now hitting .370/.431/.674 since returning from the IL in mid-June. With Adley Rutschman on the IL for at least a few more weeks, Sanchez is in line to play pretty much every day (often at DH), and he's showing a lot of upside right now. He'll slow down at some point, but if you don't have a difference maker at catcher, I think it's fine to play the hot hand with Sanchez while it lasts. 

Ryne Nelson, SP, Diamondbacks (64%) – That fastball is something else. He throws it hard, but not exceptionally so – at 95.5 mph on average, he's right around the 70th percentile among major-league pitchers these days. But he throws it from a super-high arm slot after a funky, slow-then-fast delivery that really seems to give opposing hitters fits. He generated 13 of his 15 swinging strikes Monday with the four-seamer, and he did that despite throwing it 70% of the time. Nelson is pretty much the most fastball-heavy pitcher in baseball these days – among 80 pitchers with at least 200 innings since the start of last season, none have thrown their fastball more often than Nelson's 57.4% rate – and you would think hitters would catch up to it at some point. But he's down to a 3.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past calendar year, so it hasn't been an issue yet. It's a weird approach, but he's made it work for him with one outlier pitch, and I think it makes sense to just keep riding him until hitters figure it out. 

Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles (38%) – Rogers' fastball was positively Nelsonian tonight, generating a genuinely absurd 14 whiffs on 27 swings. This one is tougher to make sense of. Rogers' four-seamer was a pretty good pitch back in 2021, when he was average 94.5 mph with it and playing it off a genuinely great changeup; on Monday, he averaged 93.1 with it and had just two whiffs with his changeup, which continues to look like a much diminished version of its former self. Rogers' success Monday was probably more about the state of the Rangers' offense than anything Rogers is doing, but credit where it's due, as he has a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in four MLB starts so far this season. It has come with 18 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings, which is hardly exciting, but he's getting the job done and clearly has a spot in the rotation for as long as he can keep it. Rogers is pretty far down the list of interesting pitchers I'm looking to add these days, but he's been effective enough lately that I'm willing to add him in some deeper leagues to see if my hunch is wrong. It doesn't hurt that his start next week looks like it'll come against a beatable Marlins lineup. 

Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles (30%) – Okay, this one is totally speculative. But the Orioles are going to add their third catcher to the IL after Chadwick Tromp left with a back injury, and at some point, they've got to give Basallo a look, right? Sanchez is holding things down right now, but he's already been spending time at DH, and Basallo has plenty of experience at first base, so I don't think this is a situation where he'd get called up and struggle to find playing time. And Basallo has been dominant at Triple-A, especially lately, hitting .318/.452/.667 in June with more walks than strikeouts. Ideally, the Orioles would probably like to get Basallo a bit more seasoning. But it sure looks like he can help them right now, and there's a need for it, so let's add him just in case.