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USATSI

It would be unfair to say Jakob Marsee entered the season completely off prospect radars, but it's not that much of a stretch. When FanGraphs.com ranked the top 57 prospects in the Marlins system coming into the season, Marsee just barely cracked the top half of the list, ranking 27th. When BaseballProspectus.com ranked the top 500 prospects in baseball for Dynasty back in May, Marsee didn't even make the list. 

So, yeah, his 1.414 OPS in his first 13 MLB games comes as a bit of a shock, you could say. Of course, it would come as a shock even if Marsee were one of the most hyped prospects in baseball. Over the past decade, Pete Alonso and Davis Schneider are the only players with an OPS of at least 1.300 over their first 13 MLB games. Lower the bar to a 1.200 OPS in the first 13 games, and you get a few more names: Yordan Alvarez, James Outman, Austin Meadows, and Yermin Mercedes. 

You'll notice a couple of things there, of course. One is that this kind of early-career success is incredibly rare, with just those six names managing among 636 hitters who have made their MLB debut and had at least 45 plate appearances in a season over the past decade – about one out of 100. The second thing to notice is that this kind of hot start is by no means a guarantee of future success. Alvarez and Alonso are stars, sure, and Austin Meadows was a pretty good player before injuries derailed his career, but the other three haven't even established themselves as starting-caliber MLB players – Mercedes isn't even playing affiliated ball, four years after taking the league by storm. 

But I'll be honest: I don't feel super comfortable betting against Marsee at this point. That's not to say I think he's going to be an Alonso/Alvarez-level star, or anything close. But there's a lot to like about the way he's been playing this season, even before he made it to the majors.

We'll start with plate discipline, because that's what immediately stands out. He has nine walks and nine strikeouts in his first 48 plate appearances, and that's carried over from his time at Triple-A, where he had a 15.9% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate. Marsee's always had a good approach at the plate, but it's never a guarantee that will carry over against major-league pitching, but he has swung at just 10% of pitches out of the strike zone so far while making contact on 89% of his swings on pitches in the strike zone, elite marks for any sample size. 

But what might be most impressive about Marsee so far is the pop. He homered twice Wednesday and actually has a 93.2 mph average exit velocity so far, an elite mark. He won't sustain anything like that, but he might not be totally punch-less either – he had an 87.3 mph average exit velocity in his time at Triple-A, and while that's far from an elite mark, it's close enough to average to think he might not just be a total slap-hitter.

And Marsee seems to have the approach to maximize that average pop. He has hit 24% of his batted balls in the air to the pull side, and it was 22% at Triple-A. That's how Marsee managed 14 homers in 98 games despite middling power. 

And that's not even the most exciting thing about him: That would be the speed. Marsee was leading all Triple-A players with 47 steals before his promotion, coming off a 51-steal season. That and the plate discipline are the two skills that have always been there for Marsee, and with six steals (including one Wednesday), they've both carried over to his first few weeks in the majors. 

Now, none of that means Marsee is going to remain even an above-average hitter at the major-league level. I'd probably bet against it in the long run if I had to take a stand, which I suppose I do. But it's all to say that, while his early success is a surprise, it hasn't come from completely out of nowhere, and it might not be a total fluke. And the speed obviously gives Marsee some margin for error in Roto leagues, where he could still be a very useful Fantasy option in a Brice Turang kind of mold even when the bat regresses.

For now, I'll say Marsee needs to be rostered in any league that counts steals as its own category, and that's especially true in leagues that count on-base percentage rather than batting average. It's tougher to make the call in points leagues, which tend to have shallower rosters and tend to reward all-around excellence as a hitter. That's still an open question for Marsee, and I'd bet against him being a top-36 outfield for more than a few weeks at a time.

But it's not totally impossible with the skills he's shown so far. It's fair to say nobody really saw that coming before the season. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action around MLB: 

Thursday's top waiver-wire targets

Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs (17%) – With the last big service time-related deadline looming, we're going to see some prospects finally get the chance in the coming days, but Caissie actually doesn't count for that. The Cubs are calling him up for his MLB debut Thursday, ahead of the deadline that would guarantee he keeps rookie eligibility for 2026. Caissie was born in Ontario, not far from Toronto, and with the Cubs playing one more game in Toronto for this series, maybe they just wanted him to get his MLB debut in front of family.  However, with the Cubs outfield still full – the reason he hasn't been called up before this – this one feels like it's destined to be a short-term promotion for one of the game's top outfield prospects. Still, if Caissie is up for good and has an opportunity to play regularly, he would certainly be worth getting excited about, having hit .292/.393/.573 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A. He has big-time power potential and is worth adding just on the off chance this promotion is for good. 

Nolan McLean, SP, Mets (22%) – Now, McLean looks like he's in position for a real shot to stick around after the Mets moved Frankie Montas to the bullpen this week. McLean is enjoying a breakout season, with FanGraphs.com adding him to their list at No. 53 at the mid-season point, while BaseballProspectus.com had him at No. 34, noting his sweeper might be the "nastiest" in the minors. But he isn't just a one-pitch guy, as McLean boasts a six-pitch mix, including two distinct fastballs, plus a splitter, curveball, and slider in addition to the sweeper. McLean is a late breakout after being a two-way player, and he has a 2.45 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate in 113.2 innings this season. His walk rate has been a bit higher than you'd like, but McLean has thrived in spite of it, and now he's getting an opportunity with a great supporting cast. He could make an impact down the stretch. 

Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs (59%) – There was a point when it looked like Shaw's season might be more or less over from a Fantasy perspective. But the Cubs passed on upgrading the third base spot, and he's rewarded them with a big run to kick off the second half. After his homer-and-steal combo Wednesday, Shaw is now hitting .323 with eight homers and four steals, looking like the guy we expected him to be as a big-time prospect. He still isn't crushing the ball, but his 88.2 mph average exit velocity represents a huge improvement from where he was in the first half, and his rate of batted balls hit in the air to the pull side of the field is up to 29%, a huge mark that will allow him to make the most of his middling raw power if he can keep it up. At the very least, Shaw should be rostered in all categories leagues, but if you're getting poor performance from your third baseman, he's worth a look in points leagues as a hot hand play, too. 

Troy Melton, SP, Tigers (10%) – This was probably just a spot start for Melton, but we're reaching the point where the Tigers need to find a way for him to be a real part of the rotation. Coming off a 100-inning season, he sits at 97.1 after his five-inning start against the White Sox, so it doesn't seem like limiting his innings needs to be too much of a concern, and Melton is now down to a 2.82 ERA and 3.51 FIP in his first 22.1 MLB innings, with a 25.3% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there's an obvious candidate to move from the rotation here, so Melton is more like a stash candidate in deeper leagues. 

Evan Carter, OF, Rangers (40%) – Carter returned a day earlier than expected from his IL stint and looked no worse for wear Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with a double and his 13th stolen base. The steals have been a pleasant surprise for Carter, who has dealt with recurring back injuries that haven't slowed him down too much. He still isn't hitting like he did as a rookie, but the speed and on-base skills have been a nice bonus for a guy I still think might have some solid upside as a hitter if he can just get healthy.