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I always feel bad when a pitcher has a no-hitter, and our reaction as analysts is basically … "good for you!" No-hitters are momentous occasions, worth celebrating. But when you look back at the history of pitchers who have thrown no-hitters, you're not necessarily looking at a list of the best pitchers in baseball – over the past few years, we've had Dylan Cease and Blake Snell, sure, but also Michael Lorenzen and Domingo German and Reid Detmers, too. And when a pitcher of the latter category throws a no-hitter, you might never have a better chance to sell high on them than the next day. 

Gavin Williams isn't quite in that class, and he didn't quite throw a no-hitter Wednesday, ultimately coming two outs short before giving up a solo homer to Juan Soto in the ninth inning. But this might be your best opportunity ever to sell high on Williams. Right now.

Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of opportunities to sell right now. The trade deadline in MLB has passed, obviously, but it's passed in many Fantasy leagues, too. And, even if you do still technically have the opportunity to make a move, your list of interested suitors is going to be relatively short, with most teams knowing whether they have a chance to win the championship or not by this point in the season. With that in mind, let's take a look at why I'm calling Williams a sell-high candidate, and what you should expect from him moving forward if you can't find a buy.

And the case for that is actually pretty clear, even if you just look at his excellent start Wednesday. Yes, Williams took a no-hitter into the ninth, which is obviously very impressive, and he's now down to a 3.17 ERA for the season, thanks to a 2.36 ERA in 12 starts since the beginning of June. He's been terrific in that span, or at least, he's been getting terrific results.

But Williams still has some huge flaws. He walked four in Wednesday's start and still has a massive 11.6 walk rate since June 1 – that would be the second-highest mark in baseball for the season, ahead of just Williams' 12.6% overall mark, funnily enough. You can get away with a lot of walks if you get a lot of strikeouts and generate a lot of weak contact, but Williams generally doesn't do either at a particularly high level – his 20.9% strikeout rate since June 1 is below average, while his expected wOBA on contact is .373, a few points higher than the league average. 

Add it all up, and that's why Williams has a 4.15 xERA for the season. If that's not your preferred ERA estimator, well, I have bad news: The rest of them think he's deserved even worse. He has a 4.44 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, and a 4.15 SIERA, all of which suggest Williams is lucky to have his low-3.00s ERA right now. 

What complicates all of this is that Williams absolutely has the skills to pitch to a 3.00 ERA. He's got some bonkers stuff, led by a fastball with borderline elite velocity and extension – meaning he throws it hard and it gets on hitters in a hurry, and he has pretty good shape on the pitch as well. It all adds up to a fastball that should be excellent, and Williams has four other pitches he can call on, including a sweeper and curveball that generate plenty of whiffs. When he's on.

And therein lies the problem. Williams' command remains terrible, and he hasn't yet shown he can thrive with terrible command the way guys like Blake Snell and Dylan Cease can. He's shown he can get by, but his success over the past few months also looks like a pretty big mirage. I'd love to buy into it, and if he were generating swings and misses and strikeouts more consistently or avoiding free passes, I might even be able to.

But right now, he's not really doing any of those things at a good enough level. And now he's coming off a 126-pitch outing as he chased the no-hitter, 17 more than he's ever thrown in an MLB start. That doesn't necessarily mean Williams will get hurt, but it's an ominous sign for a pitcher who missed a bunch of time with an elbow injury. I'd imagine, at the very least, the Guardians will be a little more cautious with his pitch count the next time out, but there could be some knock-on effects from his attempt to chase history that could lead to some struggles.

But I mostly just expect Williams to struggle moving forward anyway. This was a great start, but it wasn't exactly the kind of start that should engender a ton of optimism about Williams moving forward. There's still plenty of upside here, but Williams is far from a finished product, and when every ERA estimator points in the same direction, with a number starting with a 4.00, I'm going to believe that. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action around MLB: 

Thursday's waiver-wire targets

Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals (3%) – Given how much Cavalli struggled at Triple-A, I needed to see something from him before I was interested in picking him up. Well, he showed us something in his first major-league start in nearly three years Wednesday. He got through just 4.1 innings on 88 pitches, so I don't want to make it seem like he was perfect, because he wasn't. But Cavalli was pretty impressive overall, striking out six and walking just one over the 4.1 shutout innings, and if you look under the hood, it looks even better. He averaged 97.3 mph with his fastball, up 1.8 mph from the last time we saw him, and he generated five swinging strikes on 17 swings against that pitch, a fine result. And he was even better with his curveball, which had eight whiffs on 16 swings, en route to a 19-strikeout game. It's just one game, and Cavalli has a lot working against him – his injury history, his struggles at Triple-A, his teammates' defensive skills – so I'm not saying you should rush out and add Cavalli in all leagues. But in deeper formats, he showed enough to be worth taking a flyer on just to see what the next start looks like. 

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles (29%) – Is he starting to figure it out? Well, we're not exactly seeing signs of superstardom from Mayo, but he is starting to look like he belongs, at least. He homered Wednesday off Ranger Suarez and is now sporting a .791 OPS over his past 30 games. It comes with an 88.2 mph average exit velocity and 11% barrel rate, so we still need to see more from him before anyone declares him a must-start Fantasy option. But given the pedigree and presumed upside, I think Mayo is a fine stash to see if he can close out the season well. It would be big for the Orioles if he could. 

Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins (45%) – I'll stop writing about Keaschall as soon as he gives me a reason to stop writing about him! But he went 2 for 5 with a pair of doubles and three RBI Wednesday, giving him four hits and six RBI in two games since coming off the IL. He has six extra base hits, five walks, and five steals in nine MLB games in addition to good minor-league production, and I kind of think we just need to add him everywhere and see what happens. 

Riley O'Brien, RP, Cardinals (2%) – When the Cardinals traded Ryan Helsley, it seemed like JoJo Romero was set up to step into the closer's role, especially after he got the first two post-Helsley saves. But Cardinals beat writers pushed back on that, and sure enough, O'Brien got the save chance against the Dodgers Wednesday. He worked around one walk to close out the four-out save, and while we don't have much of a sample size from him, O'Brien does have a 1.84 ERA this season, so maybe there's something there. In all likelihood, he's just part of a committee for a mediocre team, but if you're desperate for saves and missed out on all the fun of the last week, add O'Brien and see if he can emerge from the pack.