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Fantasy Baseball players can too often be all about "what have you done for me lately," but at this point in the season, that's the way you should be playing it. In the long run, a player's long-term track record matters a lot more for predicting what they're going to do in the future than what they've done recently, but that assumes a player's talent level is static. 

And we know that isn't the case. Players go through hot streaks where they play over their heads, and they go through cold spells where they just can't get it right. And while sometimes, that's just random – sometimes, players really are just at the whim of chance and luck – we know sometimes guys just aren't right. And Aaron Nola just doesn't look right right now.

Nola struggled yet again Wednesday against the Brewers, giving up six earned runs over five innings of work. It was his fourth start since coming back from the IL, and the third time he has failed to record even a quality start in that time; even worse than that, it's the second time he's allowed six runs in those four starts. 

And, unlike with, say, Eury Perez, who is struggling similarly right now, this isn't new for Nola. He's been broken pretty much all season, even before he landed on the IL. His fastball velocity has been down from the start, and he hasn't ended a start with an ERA below 4.50 at any point this season. The lowest he got was a 4.61 mark at the start of May after a six-inning, shutout outing; he's given up 31 runs in 28 innings since. 

Nola still has that excellent knuckle curve, and he's still generating decent whiff numbers with it. But even that pitch is getting rocked, with a .346 expected wOBA against it – last season, it was .263. And that's his best pitch right now, with his four-seamer getting crushed to the tune of a .392 xwOBA while generating a whiff on just 15.5% of swings. The sinker is getting better results on balls in play, but it's simply too hittable to be a reliable pitch, especially against lefties, who have a .900-plus OPS against him on the season.

I don't know if this is the end for Nola. He's 32, which obviously isn't young, but it isn't alarmingly old, either. But Nola has always been an "old" pitcher; even when he was young, he didn't blow upper-90s heaters past hitters. He got by on terrific command of his slower, bendier pitchers, while he tried to steal called strikes and generate weak contact with his fastballs. It's possible that, as he gets deeper into his 30s and his velocity continues to wane, he just won't have what it takes to pitch deep into his 30s the way the likes of teammate Zack Wheeler or Chris Sale have.

Or maybe Nola just isn't 100% healthy right now after missing a long time with a sprained ankle and a stress reaction in his rib. I'm open to the idea that he could have a bounce-back 2026 season, and I'll be willing to take some cheap fliers if he falls far enough down draft boards. But Nola hasn't looked like himself at any point this season, and I think you probably need to stop waiting for it to happen. He's doing more harm than good right now. 

A few more thoughts on a slumping star

Before we get to the rest of Wednesday's action, some quick thoughts on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has looked completely lost at the plate lately. So much so that the Cubs have sat him on the bench the past two days for a mental reset. For a good breakdown of how things have gone wrong for Crow-Armstrong, check out this piece from NorthSideBaseball.com, where Matthew Trueblood digs into some mechanical issues plaguing Crow-Armstrong during his sub-.500 OPS August. 

Crow-Armstrong obviously isn't this bad, but he wasn't as good as he was back in May and June either, so to a certain extent, we're seeing some regression to the mean here. But we're also seeing the limitations of his approach, and how thin the margin for error might be for him. Crow-Armstrong is a talented player with some real gifts – plus athleticism and a swing geared toward getting the most out of his pretty solid plus power – but his approach at the plate is a mess. It was a mess when things were going well for him, but with how often he swings at terrible pitches and how much he struggles against non-fastballs, this kind of slump was always within the range of possibilities.

And it's tanking his value for 2026. He's still going to finish with a 30-30 season – he needs two more homers, so I guess it isn't a guarantee – and his defense should insulate him from real playing time risk in the long run. But he's also struggling in a way we almost never see from top-25 picks, let alone first-rounders, which is what some were talking about Crow-Armstrong as at the height of the summer. I don't know if I'll be able to justify him as a top-25 pick if he doesn't really turn this slump around, especially with his OPS against lefties hovering around .600. 

He's still shown more upside than Michael Harris ever has, for example, but Crow-Armstrong also doesn't have the quality of contact skills Harris does – his average exit velocity this season is around 1 mph lower than Harris' career mark. And we've seen how ugly things can get for Harris when he isn't locked in. Crow-Armstrong is looking like he's going down that same path. Let's see if he can recover and at least be a top-50 pick next season. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action around MLB: 

Thursday's top waiver-wire targets

Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (47%) – I still believe! Matthews gets the strikeouts (27% rate on the season) and avoids walks (6.9%), so now he just needs to find a way to avoid getting hit quite as hard as he has been. To that end, he's started incorporating a sinker into his arsenal since the start of August and is starting to see better results, with Wednesday's start lowering his ERA to 3.73 over his past six. He's still given up six homers in that stretch, but it's worth noting that three of them came in one start against the Yankees; three homers in five starts otherwise doesn't sound so bad, does it? Matthews still has a lot to prove, and he's tough to trust even with his recent success. But he is lined up for two starts next week against the Angels and Diamondbacks, and that might be enough to make him worth relying on. 

Ryan Bergert, SP, Royals (30%) – Bergert is getting an opportunity since his trade to the Royals, and he's definitely taking advantage of it, with a 2.43 ERA in his past six starts. He has gone six full innings just once in that time, so there are definitely still some limitations. But he's recorded 31 strikeouts to 11 walks in 33.1 innings, and I think there's room for even better than that with a couple of breaking balls that should generate plenty of whiffs – his sweeper entered Wednesday's start with a mediocre 24.7% whiff rate, but he got seven whiffs with it in this start, so maybe it's coming. And his fastball does a good job generating relatively harmless fly balls when he spots it right, so that's not necessarily a liability either. I don't think Bergert has ace upside, but he looks like a two-start option next week against the Guardians and Phillies. There's some risk there with the latter matchup, especially, but I think he can be pretty useful. 

Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers (19%) – This is a speculative one. Will Smith was pulled from Wednesday's game after taking a ball off his right hand, and while X-rays came back negative, it could still cost him some time, in which case, Rushing could finally get a bit of extended run. Rushing has been pretty underwhelming as a primary backup, but he's also still shown some interesting skills in his sporadic playing time. There's been too much swing and miss in his game so far, but he's generally making pretty good swing decisions (18% chase rate) and hitting the ball hard when he does make contact (90.5 mph average exit velocity, 11.8% barrel rate). And, obviously, he has a terrific minor-league track record, with a .931 OPS that suggests he should still have impact potential if he ever gets the opportunity. If Smith has to miss time, that opportunity could finally be here.