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The Mets figure to be big players in free agency this offseason (as they have been every offseason, lately), and they might have tipped their hand about which direction they are looking Sunday, trading long-time outfield stalwart Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers in exchange for second baseman Marcus Semien.

It's a big-name trade, but the impact for real life may revolve more around the fact that the Mets now have a wide open spot to chase after Kyle Tucker or another premier outfielder in free agency. For Fantasy Baseball, the impact might not be huge either, though it should make us a bit more open to the possibility of a bounceback season for Semien, at least. 

So that's where we'll start. Semien's Fantasy value seems to be in free fall. He finished as the No. 23 second baseman in Fantasy in 2025, and it wasn't just because he missed 35 games, his first time missing more than seven games in a season since 2017. Even when Semien was on the field, the play wasn't up to his usual standards. His strikeout rate creeped up to 17.4%, the highest it has been since 2021, and his overall line fell to .230/.305/.364, leading to the lowest wOBA of his career at .295, 11 points lower than his 2024 mark.

But if you crack under the hood, things don't look quite as dire. Semien's athletic traits seem intact, to start with. He remains a very valuable defender, for example, and his sprint speed was still in the 81st percentile in 2025, right in line with his 2024 mark. His bat speed is also basically unchanged, going from 68.7 mph to 68.3 to 68.4 in the three seasons BaseballSavant.com has been tracking it. 

In fact, Semien's damage on contact actually rebounded a bit last season. His xwOBA on contact was .341, up from .329 in 2024, and his average exit velocity moved in the same direction. The uptick in strikeout rate distracted from that, and likely stemmed from a slip in his contact skills. Given his age – Semien turned 35 midway through September – it doesn't make much sense to bet on a bounceback in that regard, even if his swing decisions and swing speed don't look much different than they did before.

But there are a couple of reasons to think this trade could lead to better days for Semien, or at least a more gentle final decline phase for his career. For one thing, Semien actually underperformed his expected stats in 2025, putting up that .295 wOBA with a .318 xwOBA; for his career, Semien has overperformed his expected wOBA by about 10 points. And he might be more likely to do so by getting out of Globe Life Field, where he had a .277 wOBA last season compared to a .311 mark on the road. Citi Field, the Mets' home, isn't necessarily a great place to hit, ranking 21st in park factor for hitters over the past three seasons; Globe Life Field ranks second-to-last ahead of only Seattle. 

You certainly shouldn't expect a vintage Semien season in 2026, or anything. He'll likely continue to be a big drain on your batting average even in a best-case scenario, and you're probably looking at a ceiling of 25 homers. But he could run more in New York to go along with a potential bounce back in overall hitting, making him a reasonable candidate for a top-12 ranking at a weak second base position. 

As for Nimmo, he was clearly the better hitter in 2025, and his ability to get on base is something the Rangers could really benefit from at the top of the lineup. However, despite being a few years younger than Semien, there are some bigger red flags in his athletic profile that make the possibility of a steep drop off in the coming years pretty scary. I'm not necessarily projecting that for 2025, and as a No. 3 outfielder, he remains a decent bet for Fantasy.  

But it's not like there's a ton of upside to get excited about here, and with a downgrade both in his home ballpark and lineup, it's fair to discount Nimmo a bit. He's still in that No. 3 outfielder range, but if you want to push him down to around 40th or so, I wouldn't complain to much – I would rather take the bet on Jakob Marsee, Jurickson Profar, or Mike Trout, to name just three outfielders currently being drafted behind Nimmo in very early ADP. 

Ultimately, it's a slight upgrade for Semien and a slight downgrade for Nimmo, but not an earth-shattering deal either way. The earth may start to tremble a bit if the Mets take advantage of the newfound hole in a corner outfield spot by chasing Tucker in free agency, as I suspect they now will.