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USATSI

If there has been one defining storyline over the past, let's say, month of the Fantasy Baseball season, it has been the emergence of a bunch of fascinating, talented, and impactful young pitchers. Or, at least we thought they were going to be impactful. This weekend? Not so much. Just check out this sampling of weekend pitching lines from some of the biggest names to emerge over the past few weeks: 

It wasn't all bad, of course. Jacob Misiorowski showed off his ace upside (more on him later), and Parker Messick continued his emergence from relative obscurity to emerge as a really useful option for the Guardians. And hopefully Nolan McLean and Luis Morales will continue to dominate this week – they've got the dreams of countless Fantasy players resting on them.

But this weekend was a good reminder that the bar for "this guy is interesting and worth taking a flier on" is a lot lower than "this guy is someone you can trust every time out." In truth, there are only a few dozen pitchers who actually fit the latter category, while there are legitimately 100 or more who might come across the waiver wire over the course of the season who qualify for the former. 

And all five of those guys definitely still count for the former. These are all young, talented pitchers with some standout skills – Waldrep's splitter, Schlittler and Tolle's fastballs, Tong's deceptive delivery, and Chandler's whole arsenal – but they are all still in the infancies of their careers. We think they will emerge as dependable Fantasy options, but if the pitcher position is defined by one thing, more than anything else, it is attrition. Two of these guys will be must-start pitchers in 2026, but at least two will probably get hurt, and the other will probably just fall apart without much explanation – remember Bobby Miller?

None of that is to say you shouldn't add the next hotshot pitching prospect who comes along. But it is to say that you should do so knowing they are lottery tickets. And the thing about the lottery is, you know, you probably aren't going to win every time. Or anything close. You play because the potential reward is enough to overcome some losses. That's the way to view these young pitchers, too. 

Nine more big takeaways from this weekend

Hunter Greene might need to be a top-12 SP in 2026

12 strikeouts in seven innings against a red-hot Mets lineup. His second 12-strikeout effort since coming back from the IL less than a month ago and his third of the season – making him one of just three pitchers to record at least three starts of 12 or more strikeouts this season. 

The strikeouts are great, of course, but it's not just about the strikeouts. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings since the start of last season, Greene is fifth in the majors in ERA and tied for seventh in WHIP. Despite pitching in one of the worst parks in baseball, Greene has basically been every bit as good as someone like Zack Wheeler or Chris Sale, and he's done it while averaging nearly six innings per start. On a per-inning basis, Greene is right at or near the top of that second tier of pitchers after Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes.

Of course, there's a reason we have to add innings qualifiers when talking about him. He only just reached 90 for this season after going on the IL twice with a recurring groin injury, and he's only at 240 over the past two seasons combined after missing time late last season with elbow soreness. He's managed to avoid any injuries with obvious long-term ramifications, but when you add in a shoulder strain back in 2022 plus Tommy John surgery from his time as a prospect, there are plenty of red flags in the profile. 

That goes with the territory when you are the hardest-throwing starter in the game, and for some Fantasy players, that might be enough to take Greene off their draft boards entirely. Every pitcher's arm is a ticking time bomb, it seems, and that is probably especially true for the guy who has thrown more 100 mph fastballs than any starter in baseball in just 16 starts. It might be unsustainable, and maybe it makes sense to treat Greene like Tyler Glasnow, someone you have to assume will miss at least some time every year. 

But even downgrading Greene could still make him a top-12 SP for 2026. Because all else being equal, he might be the fourth-best starter in baseball right now. I don't know if I'll rank Greene as a top-12 SP, but I won't really be able to argue if someone else does. 

Chris Sale might be the SP4

Two starts since coming off the IL, two nine-strikeout starts, to go with four in his last nine starts before going on the IL. Going back to the start of last season, only Skenes and Skubal have a lower ERA than Sale's 2.38 mark, only 12 have a lower WHIP, only Crochet has a better strikeout rate, and only Skubal and Crochet have a better K-BB%. 

Yeah, injuries. Okay, let's talk about them. Since his return from Tommy John surgery in late 2021, Sale has been on the IL five times in four seasons, which certainly isn't ideal. But how many of these injuries are actually concerning looking forward:

  • 9/10/2021 - placed on 10-day IL with COVID-19 positive test
  • 4/4/2022 - placed on 60-day IL with stress fracture in right rib cage
  • 7/22/2022 - placed on 15-day IL with fractured pinky finger on left hand
  • 08/13/2022 - transferred to 60-day IL with fractured right wrist 
  • 6/2/2023 - placed on 15-day IL with left shoulder inflammation
  • 6/21/2025 - placed on 15-day IL with fractured left ribcage

Let's also add that he missed starts at the end of last season with a back issue, and I count exactly two injuries I might be worried about moving forward: The back injury and the shoulder injury from 2023. Otherwise? He had a stress fracture in his rib during spring training in 2022. He suffered an unrelated rib injury earlier this season while making a diving play in the field. In 2022, he was hit by a line drive, leading to a fractured pinky, and then fractured his wrist in a bike accident while recovering from that. 

That's a lot of missed time, but as the past two seasons have clearly shown, there are no lingering effects from any of those injuries holding Sale back. And nearly all of them were just plain bad luck that could literally happen to any pitcher. The exceptions are the shoulder and back, which have had no recurring symptoms since. I just don't find any of that particularly moving as an argument against Sale. 

The best argument against him is his age, as Sale will be that he turns 37 a few days after Opening Day, and that's not nothing. And if you want to argue it's a tie breaker to take another pitcher ahead of him, I think that's reasonable … except I'm not sure who Sale is supposed to be tied with. Logan Gilbert has had his struggles this season after coming back from an elbow injury, which is more concerning than any of Sale's issues; Cristopher Sanchez has a relatively clean bill of health but has neither the multi-year track record nor strikeout upside we're typically looking for; Hunter Brown might have the best combination of safety and upside, but he's a lot closer to Sanchez's level of strikeouts than Sale's over the past two seasons.

The No. 4 SP spot is going to be wide open in 2026, but you should definitely keep your mind open to the possibility that Sale will be worthy of that spot. Mine is. 

Jacob Misiorowski didn't disappoint, at least

The vibes were shifting with Misiorowski, who hadn't pitched more than five innings in a start since coming back from the IL in mid-August. Then he went out Sunday and took the Pirates apart, striking out eight over seven one-run innings, his first time pitching past the sixth. There wasn't a big change in Misiorowski's approach in Sunday's start, though there were some tweaks – he threw more curveballs than sliders and more changeups than usual, and I think both changes are interesting – the curveball has a better whiff rate and results on balls in play than his slider (which plays more like a cutter most of the time), and the changeup has been very impressive in very limited usage. And Misiorowski didn't have to sacrifice control to lean on those pitches more, which is a good sign, given that that is his biggest issue on the rare occasions he does struggle. I don't think we're likely to see the slider relegated to his third pitch very often, but I do think giving hitters a different look isn't a bad idea, even for a guy with stuff as overpowering as Misiorowski's. 

Second-Half Julio is a real thing

No more grumbling next April if he gets off to a bad start, okay? Can you guys promise me that? Julio Rodriguez had five hits across three games this weekend, including two homers Saturday and then two doubles Sunday, with seven RBI combined across the two games. That comes off an August where he hit .321/.357/.587, and he now has a .932 OPS since the All-Star break with 16 homers and eight steals. For the season, he's up to 30 homers (two shy of his career high) and 25 steals (one more than last season), and he's almost certainly going to end up with 100 RBI and 100 runs for the season. And that .267 batting average is only going up. 

I know it's frustrating to use a first-round pick on a player only to watch them struggle to the tune of a .722 OPS by the end of June. I understand. But Rodriguez's underlying metrics have been strong all along, and we have a multi-year track record of him performing better in the second half. It's tough because there isn't always a guarantee that the second-half turnaround will come, but betting on a player as talented as Rodriguez (especially a 24-year-old) is usually a good idea. He's worked his way back into the first round for next season. 

Don't forget about Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez went 3 for 5 with a homer Saturday and closes out the weekend with an .815 OPS for the season. Which might not sound like much, except Alvarez had a .646 OPS when he came off the IL about two weeks ago. He has three homers, 10 walks, and only four strikeouts while hitting .425, 51 trips to the plate in that span, showing zero signs of being held back by the hand injury that robbed him over over three months. 

I'm gonna be pounding the table for Alvarez as a second-round pick for 2026. Just prepare yourselves for that right now. I know all about the injury history, but here's the thing: If the only argument against a player is "they can't stay healthy," then you only need one thing to go right to be really wrong about them. We have every reason to believe that Alvarez is one of the very best hitters in baseball, an absolute monster who might hit 50 homers and hit .320 in any given season. He's missed a lot of time with injuries, yes, but I don't think it's reasonable to hold this season's injury against him – the Astros misdiagnosed a fractured hand – and he has missed just a few days over the past two seasons with knee problems, which were the real issue for him earlier in his career. 

That's not to say the knee problems are in the rearview mirror entirely. But it is to say that, after two years of them being less of an issue, why should I hold a misdiagnosed hand fracture against him? I don't see much reason to. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto suffered an all-time bad beat

On Saturday, Yamamoto was one measly out short of a no-hitter, and he blew that one on his own with a homer allowed to Jackson Holliday. No sweat, though, the win is still coming, right? After all, he left the game with a 3-1 lead against an offense that hadn't managed anything all game, and the Dodgers have like nine different closer-caliber relievers in their bullpen to finish that one off and get Yamamoto his 12th win of the season, right? Nope! Blake Treinen and then Tanner Scott failed in quick succession to rob Yamamoto of the win. 

And that's a shame for Yamamoto, though it doesn't really take anything away from him. It's kind of incredible, though, how little hype Yamamoto seems to generate, both in Fantasy circles and in real-life discussions, seeing as he signed a then-record contract two years ago and has largely lived up to the lofty expectations he came over from Japan with. He missed a big chunk of his rookie season with a shoulder issue, but he's been healthy in 2026 and mostly dominant, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 29% strikeout rate and the peripherals to back it all up. You would prefer if he were a more projectable source of innings – he might just scrape past 170 by the end of the season, and that might be the ceiling in a six-man Dodgers rotation – but that's nitpicking. He's among probably five pitchers I'll consider for the No. 4 and 5 spots in my rankings for next season, and he'll be closer to five than 14, I bet. 

Hunter Goodman wants to be the No. 2 catcher

This has been a standout season for the catcher position, with no shortage of interesting breakouts to consider for 2026. But Goodman continues to make the case for why he belongs behind Cal Raleigh at the top of the position. He strung together three straight three-hit games this week and also homered Friday and Saturday, pushing him to the verge of a 30-homer season. And what's most remarkable about Goodman's season is the metronomic consistency: He has an .800 OPS or better in four of five full months, with May's .671 standing out as the lone exception. His underlying data doesn't fully back up his season – .369 wOBA vs. .333 xwOBA – but that matters a lot less for him than for most hitters, as Rockies hitters in the Statcast era have collectively outperformed their xwOBA by 15 points. If Goodman is just a .350-ish wOBA hitter, that would still be the seventh-best mark at the position. At this point, I'm leaning toward taking William Contreras' track record over Goodman, but Goodman looks like a top-100 pick for next season and might end up with 30-plus homers and 100 RBI. That's huge production for a catcher. 

You should probably just keep starting Brandon Woodruff 

Woodruff bounced back from three poor starts in a row with six shutout innings with eight strikeouts this weekend. It was against the Pirates, of course, which means it comes with a grain of salt, or perhaps a boulder. But here's the thing: He gets the Cardinals this week, and they've been the worst offense in baseball in the second half. I don't buy Woodruff as an ace – his fastball isn't quite what it used to be, and his new cutter is only helping so much – and I'm inclined to rank him outside of the top 30 starting pitchers for 2026, which may mean I just don't get a chance to draft him. But at least for this week and probably next week (vs. LAA, potentially a second start @STL), you're keeping him in your lineup. 

Do we have to get excited about Kevin Gausman again?

Gausman is putting together a heck of a second half, with a 2.59 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in his last nine starts after he twirled eight one-run innings against the Yankees this weekend. He generated eight swinging strikes with his splitter in that one, but the biggest change fueling his turnaround has been his control – Gausman has just a 4.5% walk rate in the second half, compared to a 7.5% rate before the break. We're seeing glimpses of his pre-2024 form, when he was a truly dominant starting pitcher, but I just have trouble buying into it – command can waver, especially for a splitter-heavy pitcher like Gausman, and I'm inclined to bet against this being something like the new norm. Start him the rest of the way, but I wouldn't be buying Gausman at face value if everyone starts believing in him as a potential ace again for 2026.