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Sometimes a pitcher's performance changes, and you can't pinpoint exactly why. Maybe he's commanding his pitches better. Maybe he's repeating his delivery impeccably. Maybe the ball is just bouncing his way.
But other times, a change in performance is tied to a change in approach -- something deliberate that even the layman can observe. It's these changes that I find the most compelling, that I'm most inclined to believe have real staying power. And recently, I've observed them in these five pitchers.
Dylan Cease, Blue Jays
This one is counterintuitive because we've all been conditioned to think that more velocity yields better results. Or perhaps the better way to put it is that each pitcher is calibrated to the velocity he needs to succeed at the highest level -- which varies from case to case, of course -- and so any slippage in that velocity has the potential for disaster. Rarely does it go the other way, with a pitcher losing velocity and somehow improving, but that's how Dylan Cease's past seven turns have gone. Beginning with a one-hit shutout July 25 at Boston, the 30-year-old has a 1.57 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 12.1 K/9. This is despite him losing 1-2 mph on the majority of his arsenal and even more than that on his changeup.
Those velocity readings are averages, though, and don't tell the whole story. What's typically happened in these seven starts is that Cease has eased up on his fastball early, throwing it 93-94 mph to lull hitters into a false sense of security. He'll then reach back for his old velocity to overpower them the second and third time through the order. He hasn't spoken to the phenomenon, which means I can only infer what he's thinking, but it seems more like a choice than happenstance given the consistency of the approach and brilliance of the results. The Blue Jays have also worked to expand Cease's arsenal this season, varying his looks in a way that might further justify him using the lite version of his fastball early on. Whatever the case, it's put this perpetually enigmatic pitcher at the forefront of the AL Cy Young race.
Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates
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The ground ball rates pretty much tell the story for Braxton Ashcraft this year. He had a 2.77 ERA in April and May with a 47 percent ground ball rate. He then had a 6.04 ERA in June and July with a 38 percent ground ball rate. And now he wraps up August with a 2.13 ERA to go along with a 56 percent ground ball rate. Just when it seemed like the dam was about to burst, perhaps in response to an escalating and unfamiliar workload, Ashcraft found a way to plug the leak. He's thrown more sinkers, putting its usage around 30 percent in his past four starts compared to about 15 percent previously. The tradeoff has been fewer strikeouts -- just 6.1 K/9 over that four-start stretch, and with only a 9 percent swinging strike rate -- but if it's allowing him to limit damage and work deep into games again, it's a tradeoff you'll gladly accept.
Noah Cameron, Royals
Noah Cameron has had the greatest about-face of any pitcher this season. On July 19, he had a 5.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In seven starts since, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.72 WHIP, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say that four of those starts rank among the best that any pitcher has delivered all season. Cameron's K/9 rate has gone down during the dominant seven-start stint, but that's understandable given that he's facing fewer hitters. More significant is that his swinging-strike rate has gone up two points.
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The turnaround began at precisely the time he started calling his own pitches. Whether it was the act itself, which he says allows him to throw with more conviction, or the resulting change in pitch selection is hard to say, but there's no denying the correlation. One choice he's made for himself is to throw his four-seamer 15-20 percent of the time rather than 25-30 percent, which seems like the right call given that it has a .297 xBA and just a 17 percent whiff rate. Perhaps that's the key to the turnaround. Obviously, Cameron won't continue to perform like he has over his past seven starts, but given that he had a 2.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as a rookie last year, his turnaround is one to take seriously.
Andrew Painter, Phillies
Andrew Painter had the look of a pitching savant when he put together a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 13.5 K/9 across three levels in 2022 and was poised to win a job on the major league roster at age 19. But Tommy John surgery knocked him off that perch and left him with a second-rate fastball that yielded a 5.26 ERA in the minors last year.
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His time with the big club earlier this year didn't go much better, getting him sent back to the minors to sort things out, and while his numbers there didn't do much to inspire confidence, he's clearly been different since his return to the majors, putting together a 3.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 in seven starts. He's also had a new offspeed pitch, swapping out his old splitter for a circle changeup, which he now throws roughly a quarter of the time. It's not only become his best offering, yielding just an .097 batting average, but has also improved the effectiveness of his fastball, which has gone from having less than a 15 percent whiff rate to more like a 25 percent whiff rate.
Tyler Mahle, Braves
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With Tyler Mahle's move to the Braves at the trade deadline came a change in approach. The cutter that he once leaned on roughly 20 percent of the time has been increasingly scarce, down to only 6 percent usage in his latest start Sunday against the Rockies. And seeing as it's a pitch that's yielded a .309 batting average with only a 16 percent whiff rate this season, that's a positive development. In his five starts with the Braves, leaning heavily on his fastball and splitter, Mahle has put together a 1.48 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 9.6 K/9, making him startable even against quality opponents like the Phillies, who he's facing this week.
