Alabama QB Ty Simpson leads college football's 25 most important boom-or-bust players of 2025

Which college football players are paramount to their team's success this season? Remove the obvious 2025 Heisman Trophy candidates from the conversation for a second and ponder this: Who filled crucial roles for elite teams whose endgame is a berth in the College Football Playoff?

You're not going to find all of these boom-or-bust players playing for teams at the top of our preseason bowl projections, but each is guaranteed to have a unique impact on how the campaign plays out in their respective conferences. 

CBS Sports reached out to a variety of team-specific and conference sources for perspectives on talented players whose stock hinges on execution, staying healthy and performing confidently this fall.

2025 College Football Playoff predictions, expert picks, most overrated and underrated teams

Chip Patterson

25. Darian Mensah, QB, Duke

Why is Mensah so important to Manny Diaz and Duke's efforts this season? The Blue Devils made -- at the time -- what was a record-setting investment in the former Tulane quarterback to continue the program's ascension that started last fall. He'll play a pair of top-15 opponents -- Illinois and Clemson -- and big performances against those teams could alter the complexion of the early-season playoff picture.

24. Isaiah World, OT, Oregon

When you're ranked as the 2025 transfer cycle's second-best player overall behind Nico Iamaleava, there's a certain level of heightened expectations that come with that. And World, who starred at Nevada last season, is tasked with protecting another boom-or-bust player in this list at Oregon. At his best, World could be the first tackle taken in the 2026 NFL Draft. If the Ducks take a step back as the reigning Big Ten champions and World has a so-so season up front, the stock could change dramatically.

23. Darrell Jackson Jr., DT, Florida State

There are a number of Seminoles teetering on the "star" or "bust" labels and Jackson is at the top of the list. One source close to Florida State said Jackson has "first defensive tackle off the board if he hits" potential at 6-feet-5, 337 pounds. He's an interior run-stopper coming off his most productive year. And now, the goal for Jackson is to become a multi-down threat in Florida State's rotation at the line of scrimmage. Jackson and the Seminoles get a great first against Alabama in the opener.

22. Jaydn Ott, RB, Oklahoma

Hampered by nagging injuries last season, Ott's 2024 numbers paled in comparison to his jaw-dropping production as a sophomore the previous campaign. The Sooners added Ott from the transfer portal after spring practice expecting to land a premiere baller out of the backfield and early returns have been positive in camp. Oklahoma has transitioned its offensive scheme to former Washington State OC Ben Arbuckle's expertise, along with the arrival of quarterback John Mateer. If Oklahoma can find balance, this could be one of the SEC's most-improved teams.

21. Nyck Harbor, WR, South Carolina

Will Harbor, a former five-star recruit, finally rise to stardom for the Gamecocks as a leader in the wideout room, or will this offense's by-committee approach be just enough to get by? Without a clear WR1 coming out of camp, Harbor has a chance to ascend in September after nixing track and field this offseason to fully focus on his football career. Given his size and talent level, Harbor has the measurables you'd want in a premiere option in the passing game. Consistency must be shown, however, to become a preferred target for LaNorris Sellers.

20. Rueben Owens II, RB, Texas A&M

The former five-star prospect is primed for a breakout season as a featured option in the Aggies backfield in what's expected to be a run-heavy attack with Marcel Reed and Le'Veon Moss handling the rest of the load. Injury concerns are a worry for Owens, who missed 11 games last fall.

"Owens could be almost as good as Moss this fall and make them maybe the strongest 1-2 punch at running back in the country, but he has yet to put it all together and is coming off a Lisfranc fracture," one Texas A&M source said.

19. Joey Aguilar, QB, Tennessee

Josh Heupel announced Aguilar as the Vols starting quarterback at the end of camp. Tennessee wouldn't have essentially traded Nico Iamaleava to UCLA for Aguilar had this staff not intended to bring the transfer in for immediate competition under center. Heupel praised Aguilar's work ethic and attention to detail in adjusting to a new scheme following Tennessee's first scrimmage. He was a two-year starter at Appalachian State, but performing at the highest level in the SEC is a different task entirely.

18. Chase Sowell, WR, Iowa State

The East Carolina transfer won't be asked to replicate the production hole left by 1,000-yard wideouts Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, but his role will expand for the first time in his career as a featured option for a nationally ranked team. Sowell averaged 19.9 yards per catch last fall and managed three touchdown receptions of at least 50 yards for the Pirates over a three-game stretch before shutting things down and making himself available on the open market. The Cyclones need a big-play threat in hopes of getting back to the Big 12 title game and Sowell hopes to squeeze into that role.

17. Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt

Have we already seen Pavia's best during last season's win over then-No. 1 Alabama? The Commodores hope not. After winning his battle with the NCAA for another year of eligibility, the SEC's loudest trash-talker will try and regain some of that magic he found last October when Vanderbilt was at the front of the national conversation. Pavia's numbers were pedestrian down the stretch during losses to South Carolina, LSU and Tennessee after pushing his team to a 6-3 start and a national ranking. Without him playing at an elite level, the Commodores could regress in 2025.

16. Nic Anderson, WR, LSU

Nearing full-go status after enduring a car accident in July in his return from an injury that cost him most of the 2024 season at Oklahoma, Anderson was signed to be one of the alphas in a deep wideout room for the Tigers. Two years ago, Anderson averaged 21 yards per catch for the Sooners with 10 touchdowns as their leading receiver. Getting back to the right mental space coming off the injury is vital in his development as a featured weapon for Garrett Nussmeier in Baton Rouge.

15. Mohamed Toure, LB, Miami

Toure played for Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman at Rutgers, so the Hurricanes coaches know what they're getting in a prized piece from the portal at the middle linebacker spot. That said, Toure's coming off his second ACL injury, so there are questions on whether he can return to his all-conference talent level and be a leader in the front seven. At full strength in 2023, Toure finished with 93 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 25 pressures. If Miami gets that version of the hard-hitting tackler, this defense will make noise in the ACC.

14. Jayden Maiava, QB, USC

A "textbook choice" from the Trojans as one team insider put it, USC needs Maiava to be a difference-maker offensively this season. The Trojans face four teams during Big Ten play currently ranked in the preseason top 20 and Maiava must show consistency from the pocket in big-time moments. He had 11 touchdown passes and six interceptions last fall over seven games after transferring from UNLV and Riley showed confidence this offseason by sticking with him as the frontman of his passing attack.

13. Malik Elzy, WR, Illinois

The understudy of former Fighting Illini playmaker Pat Bryant, Elzy turned heads during spring practice and his hot play has carried over to fall camp, per sources. With 16 returning starters back from a 10-win team, Illinois is expected to be a dark-horse Big Ten contender this fall. However, to take that next step as a program among the elites, Elzy is one of a handful of potential impact players needing to rise.

12. Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

It's a safe bet that Notre Dame's defense will be elite this fall, especially in the secondary with Leonard Moore and Christian Gray returning. In order for a return trip to the national championship game, the Fighting Irish are going to need production from the other side of the football as well. Breaking in a new quarterback will be much easier if Heisman candidate Jeremiyah Love gets some help from Price in terms of balancing the workload in the running game. Price had solid numbers last season with a 6.2 yards per carry average and seven touchdowns, but was largely a non-factor in Notre Dame's contests against ranked competition.

11. Fredrick Moore, WR, Michigan

After flashing in last season's bowl win over Alabama that energized his confidence level, Moore will start this fall along with Indiana transfer Donaven McCulley and Semaj Morgan for the Wolverines. Moore didn't enjoy the season most around Ann Arbor expected in 2024, but he wasn't the only reason Michigan's passing game flatlined. He's being counted on, per sources, as a go-to threat downfield with Sherrone Moore moving to a new starting quarterback.

10. Zuriah Fisher, EDGE, Penn State

A sixth-year senior who hasn't played since 2023, Fisher's played behind elite-level talent in Happy Valley, including Chop Robinson and Abdul Carter. Various medical setbacks have delayed his potential to break out, but in spot duty over his career (especially over 13 games in 2023), Fisher has been a productive pass rusher. He'll start opposite Dani Dennis-Sutton as focal points within Penn State's pass rush this season, but the defensive line depth is thin behind those two. James Franklin has described Fisher as a "hammer" up front and the second-ranked Nittany Lions need his best to ascend as national championship contenders.

9. Elo Modozie, EDGE, Georgia

The transfer from Army has drawn SEC Defensive Player of the Year buzz, so it's up to Modozie to determine if the hype is justified as a newcomer to the league. Four Georgia defenders have won the honor since 2002, but each of them played considerably more snaps per game than what's expected from Modozie, a likely situational fit on third down for the Bulldogs. At his best, Modozie could have a Jalon Walker-like impact chasing after quarterbacks. Modozie managed 34 tackles, eight TFLs and 6.5 sacks last season for the Black Knights.

"If he hits, he'll hit big," one SEC recruiting staffer told CBS Sports.

8. Adam Randall, RB, Clemson

The lone senior in the Tigers' backfield, Randall is a converted wide receiver at 6-2, 225 pounds and led his team in rushing during Clemson's playoff loss at Texas. With Phil Mafah now in the NFL, Randall is the likely heavy-carry option for the Tigers until freshman Gideon Davidson is ready for the full-time role. Davidson's the future of the program at the position, but Dabo Swinney has predicted that Randall will be one of college football's "great stories" this year. 

7. Eddrick Houston, DT, Ohio State

With only three returning starters off a unit that ranked No. 1 nationally in several statistical categories last fall, the Buckeyes need Houston to take the next step quickly as a feared interior run-stopper and offense wrecker in the Big Ten. He moved from defensive end to the interior as Ohio State's 3-technique midseason as a freshman and seemed better-suited in the middle of the Buckeyes' front. There's not much quality depth behind Houston given the talent losses at the position.

6. Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA

Here's a chance for the former Tennessee star to go prove he can lead a program -- essentially by himself -- out West. He's not facing return-to-the-playoffs pressure with the Bruins or even expectations of a top-tier Big Ten finish, but there are doubters following his messy exit from Tennessee and there's only one way the former five-star can silence those critics. Iamaleava's already shown "special" traits during camp and now, getting to bowl eligibility would be a major boost he could provide for Deshaun Foster and the program.

5. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Moore has huge shoes to fill, following the careers of Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel under OC Will Stein's tutelage with the Ducks. He's now had two offseasons to study this scheme after transferring from UCLA two years ago, but the parts around him are considerably different. Top wideout Evan Stewart will miss most of the season following a spring injury and Tulane transfer running back Makhi Hughes is the new starter in the backfield. Couple those with a bevy of fresh faces up front and we really don't know what to expect out of Oregon's attack. For Moore, getting the ball out quickly and accurately is paramount if the Ducks plan on repeating as Big Ten champions.

4. Brandon Baker, RT, Texas

A former five-star recruit, Baker is expected to hold the right tackle spot over as the Longhorns replace early NFL Draft exits Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cameron Williams on the edges of the offensive line. It's a huge ask for Baker in protecting Arch Manning and he's one of four new starters up front for the Longhorns, whose lone returning veteran is senior guard DJ Campbell.

3. Patrick Payton, EDGE, LSU

One NFL Draft talent evaluator told CBS Sports there are times Payton jumped out on film at Florida State as an "animal of sorts" in pass rush situations, but others, he evaporated and was barely seen. LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker expects the elite version of Payton this season as a leader within a portal-improved unit for the Tigers. Coupled with Florida transfer edge Jack Pyburn former TCU defensive tackle Sydir Mitchell and ex-South Florida star Bernard Gooden, LSU has the size and power to cause chaos for opposing SEC offenses. It begins with Payton making things happen on third down.

2. Devon Dampier, QB, Utah

At his best, Dampier's an unstoppable force on the ground as one of the nation's most prolific rushers at the quarterback position. He picked up 784 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns over his final six starts last season at New Mexico. Utah brought him over in the portal as part of a package deal with his former OC Jason Beck. Establishing confidence as a passer was a different story for Dampier, who had 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a completion rate of 57.9%. His acquisition was a calculated risk Utes coach Kyle Whittingham was willing to take.

"If he's good, Utah could make the CFP. If he can't (throw), the Utes may have another year like last season," one player personnel source within the Big 12 told CBS Sports.

1. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

The third time's a charm for Simpson, who has finally won a quarterback competition in Tuscaloosa. Playing behind Jalen Milroe the last couple of seasons, Simpson's now running the show for first-year OC Ryan Grubb, the second half of the braintrust with Kalen DeBoer that pushed Washington's offense to new heights with Michael Penix Jr. two years ago. DeBoer needs Simpson to hit. If not, it's five-star freshman Keelon Russell or fellow unproven option Austin Mack getting the keys to a hot rod that would be running out of gas at a critical junction during his early tenure.

One source close to Alabama's program said it's like "Deal or No Deal" with Simpson: "You don't know what you have in the envelope. It could be $1 million or $10."