Big Ten expert picks: 2025-26 preview, projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players
The Big Ten is poised to be the best conference in all of college basketball this year, and here's the data to prove it.
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17 min read
Retention is the name of the game in the Big Ten. The league returns 14 of the top-30 scorers from a year ago. No other high-major league returns more than seven. This year's Big Ten looks extremely similar to last year's SEC, where double-digit rosters appear stacked on paper.
It speaks to the investment in basketball, and we saw that in the coaching carousel as well. Iowa plucked Ben McCollum, one of the hottest names in the cycle. Indiana stole West Virginia's Darian DeVries. Buzz Williams opted to leave Texas A&M for Maryland. Minnesota had a gift fall into its lap with Niko Medved, a former Gophers manager back in the day, still being available.
The starpower at the top of the league is obvious with four true National Championship contenders emerging, but the Big Ten could feasibly make a run at putting 14 teams into the NCAA Tournament, just like the SEC did a year ago.
2025-26 CBS Sports preseason individual awards: Purdue's Braden Smith earns Player of the Year honors
Matt Norlander
A glorious bloodbath awaits.
CBS Sports Big 10 Preseason Player of the Year
Braden Smith | Purdue | G
Braden Smith is the ultimate conductor for a Purdue offense that should hit some sky-high notes in 2025-26. Smith makes everyone's life easier with his feel, vision and manipulation of defenses. The reigning Big Ten Player of the Year has an answer for every defensive coverage, and Smith has gotten better and better every season. He splashes treys. His midrange pull-ups are automatic. His baseline fadeaways are unguardable. He's a free safety defensively who generates takeaways. He's the Chris Paul of college basketball.
Smith could lasso Bobby Hurley's all-time assist record and cement himself as one of the best point guards in college basketball history if he could lead the Boilermakers to the title.
CBS Sports Big 10 Preseason Freshman of the Year
Kayden Mingo | Penn State | G
Mingo is the highest-rated recruit that Penn State has inked in the modern era. In the spreadsheets, the 6-3, 195-pound lead guard is projected for the largest usage rate of any rookie in the Big Ten, but he also looks like a terrific culture fit for a Mike Rhoades-led club. Mingo is a hard-nosed point of attack defender who can do a little bit of everything offensively as a three-level scorer and nifty playmaker. It'll be strange to see Rhoades stalking the sideline without his long-time point guard, Ace Baldwin, wreaking havoc, but Mingo could be an upgrade sooner rather than later.
Four more players to watch
Yaxel Lendeborg | F | Michigan: Lendeborg was the top-rated transfer in the portal, and he changes the complexion of Michigan's club as a pass-dribble-shoot forward, who could've easily been in the NBA already. He's a big guard, and Dusty May will optimize his shot diet. Expect way more 3-pointers, a ton of rebounds, plenty of push-aheads in transition and a boatload of production.
Trey Kaufman-Renn | F | Purdue: Braden Smith gets his well-deserved pub, but Kaufman-Renn demands some respect, too. The 6-foot-9 forward has soft hands and plays with both power and finesse. His little floaters, runners and push shots in the paint are unstoppable, and he's a sneaky-great decision-maker as well. Statistically, Kaufman-Renn is on the same wavelength as former Gonzaga star Drew Timme; he just gets half the love. Kaufman-Renn's rise into an All-American may make redshirting cool again.
Nate Bittle | C | Oregon: Bittle could very well be the best center in America. The senior was one of the elite post-up scorers, and he marries that low-post dominance with a feathery face-up game. Oh, and he shot 40% from downtown in Big Ten play. Bittle is tough on the glass, protects the rim at a high level, moves his feet on the perimeter and can make good reads, too. He's the total package at the 5-spot.
John Blackwell | G | Wisconsin: Being the head of the snake in Wisconsin's offense is a special gift. It's Blackwell's turn to follow the template AJ Storr and John Tonje set. Blackwell stuffed the stat sheet with 15.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists last season, but he's primed to do even more damage in 2025-26. He's one of the strongest pound-for-pound guards in the Big Ten, and Wisconsin's cavalry of shooters should invert the floor for Blackwell to bury small guards into the stanchion. Too big, too strong, too fast, too good.
Big Ten predicted order of finish
1. Purdue
Breakdown: Purdue's objective is to be the No. 1 offense in America. With Smith and Kaufman-Renn running the show, it's fully in the cards because Purdue gets the shot it wants on every trip. The Smith-to-Kaufman-Renn connection scored a sizzling 236 points last year, per CBB Analytics. You can't stop it. You can only hope and pray the ball doesn't go in, this time.
But defense and rebounding can turn Purdue from good to special. A healthy version of 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen and the addition of South Dakota State transfer big man Oscar Cluff totally change the complexion of this frontcourt. Kaufman-Renn doesn't have to be Purdue's rim protector anymore, and Purdue's backcourt is littered with high-level options. Fletcher Loyer, dubbed 'Big Game Fletch', is one of the elite catch-and-shoot assassins. CJ Cox and Gicarri Harris will be better in Year 2. Israeli freshman Omer Mayer will help this club, too.
Matt Painter is on the verge of a special campaign.
2. Michigan
Breakdown: Michigan's frontline is intimidating and should be the biggest plus for this club. Yaxel Lendeborg has a do-it-all skillset, Morez Johnson devours rebounds and 7-3 center Aday Mara was one of the most productive per-minute players in the Big Ten last year. Don't be surprised if Dusty May flirts with playing all three bigs together to smash opponents to smithereens. May so clearly wants to dominate the rim battle on both ends, thump opponents on the glass and unleash Elliot Cadeau, Lendeborg and Johnson in transition.
This could be the best defensive team in the Big Ten, and it might need to be because there are questions about how this halfcourt offense coalesces. Cadeau looks like a real upgrade at point guard, but some shooting concerns could emerge and force Michigan not to play its optimal defensive lineup.
3. UCLA
Breakdown: UCLA's point guard play was not good enough, but Donovan Dent will transform that room in a flash. His burst is … different. The Bruins were able to retain Skyy Clark, Eric Dailey Jr. and Tyler Bilodeau, and Cronin should reap the rewards of the Year 2 transfer surge. UCLA's Big Four of Dent-Clark-Dailey-Bilodeau can go to war against anybody, but the center platoon of Xavier Booker and San Diego transfer Steven Jamerson II will loom large. If UCLA's bigs don't rebound at the level Cronin demands, this defense can't be quite as electric.
But there's a ton to like about the Bruins. Two point guards on the floor at the same time? Yessir. Shooting options everywhere? Mhhmm. Extra transition points? Coming right up. Still a nasty point of attack defense that will take the ball away? You know it.
It's Cronin Ball at its finest, only with an All-American at point guard. This is going to work.
4. Illinois
Breakdown: Purdue looks like the best offensive team in the Big Ten, but Illinois and the Balkan Boys is a close second. The Ivisic twins (Tomislav and Zvonimir) are arguably the two best-shooting centers in all of college basketball. Illinois could realistically get close to 100 3-pointers from its 5-man spot, and that opens up a potpourri of options.
Brad Underwood wants to get back to playing faster, and he's got the personnel to do it with Kylan Boswell, Andrej Stojakovic, Keaton Wagler and Serbian veteran Mihailo Petrovic. A lightning-strike transition offense with a slow, methodical matchup-hunting halfcourt offense gives Illinois real variety. Freshman big man David Mirkovic is a mauler at the 4 who can pass, dribble and shoot. Stojakovic scored 17.9 points a night in the ACC with no floor-spacing centers. He could make a killing in this scheme, and Boswell can be one of the top two-way guards in the Big Ten.
Illinois' ball movement and scheme versatility offensively should lead to much-improved shot selection. Plus, Underwood is bullish that a new defensive coordinator hire (Camryn Crocker from Colgate) will add just enough changeups to help a huge team get more stops.
5. Oregon
Breakdown: Continuity at point guard and center can be a cheat code, especially when it's All-Big Ten talents like Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle. With shot-hungry role players headed out the door, Shelstad and Bittle should waltz into enormous stat lines. This feels like the year for Kwame 'KJ' Evans Jr. to break free and solidify himself as one of the best players on this club. The 6-9 forward is a terrific defender, and Oregon was at its absolute best (+36.2 net rating, 99th percentile nationally) when Shelstad, Bittle and Evans were on the floor together last year.
If the role players are hits, Oregon is a contender. Texas transfer Devon Pryor is a freakshow athlete, who will buff up this wing defense. Elon transfer TK Simpkins just needs to be a solid secondary scorer, and the Ducks will be in business. Dana Altman also has accumulated real depth in the frontline with Ege Demir and Sean Stewart.
This team can absolutely do damage because it has a dude at lead guard and an absolute monster at center.
6. Michigan State
Breakdown: Defense has to be the calling card for these Spartans. Jeremy Fears Jr. can certainly make a run at Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and Tom Izzo has a stable of sturdy big fellas, namely Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Cam Ward, to enforce MSU's calling cards as glass-cleaners. As per usual, if you let Michigan State run, you're in danger. Junior wing Coen Carr is maybe the best athlete in all of college basketball. No rim is safe when he's on the floor, and he's another weapon defensively.
The downside with Michigan State is a halfcourt offense that doesn't project to have a ton of juice. The guard depth is just not the same after Tre Holloman, Jase Richardson and Jaden Akins all departed. Samford transfer Trey Fort can fill it up, but can he defend at the required level? Izzo is banking on an emergence from sophomore Kur Teng or even freshman Jordan Scott, who has impressed in preseason workouts. A season-ending patellar injury to prized FAU transfer Kaleb Glenn is a major bummer that will have real-deal ramifications on this depth chart. The margin for error is thin, but a blanketing defense, excellent rebounding and a turbo transition attack can take you a heck of a long way.
7. Wisconsin
Breakdown: Wisconsin's offense lost sterling offensive coordinator Kirk Penney, but those lessons learned are here to stay. The Badgers' offense has the pieces to shred, yet again. Nick Boyd is a lightning-quick veteran lead guard, John Blackwell is a flat-out stud and Wisconsin's frontcourt combination of Austin Rapp and Nolan Winter can both stretch the floor and drill 3-pointers. Wisconsin will have loads of shooting on the floor at all times, and Virginia transfer Andrew Rohde gives Greg Gard yet another guard who can pass, dribble and shoot at an efficient level.
Wisconsin isn't quite as deep, but the Badgers' player-development program has made a living for years, spawning useful role players out of relative anonymity. It needs to do it again in 2025-26 to round out the rotation. Defense ultimately controls Wisconsin's ceiling as a Big Ten championship contender. Winter has to be a two-way star and a real-deal anchor defensively for the Badgers to go on a deep run.
8. Iowa
Breakdown: A wizard point guard like Bennett Stirtz and an excellent coach in Ben McCollum give Iowa a chance to compete every night. This mind-meld between coach and point guard is a floor-raising combination, and Iowa has a dynamic movement shooter in Brendan Hausen, multiple excellent cutters and a sharp secondary playmaker in Alvaro Folgueiras to add a bit more variety to the Stirtz Show.
McCollum will have to get creative defensively because this roster doesn't have a proven traditional center and could be a little light in its britches for the Big Ten brutes. Oh, and Iowa is going to play faster than you think. Be a friend, tell a friend.
9. USC
Breakdown: USC is going to be improved in Year 2 under Eric Musselman because the interior defense will jump from a major weakness to a significant strength. Jacob Cofie, Amarion Dickerson and 7-5 center Gabe Dynes were significant portal adds to buff up that defense.
Oh, and it paid the big bucks for Rodney Rice and Chad Baker-Mazara, who are proven high-major flamethrowers.
A preseason knee injury to five-star freshman Alijah Arenas is a major bummer, but it's opened the door for UNC Asheville transfer Jordan Marsh to get more burn at point guard. Marsh's willingness to handle the creator role should allow Rice and Baker-Mazara to be a bit more comfortable as off-ball scorers.
USC has some, uh, volatility in its profile, but the talent is so obvious and the depth is real. The defense will be very, very stiff. Like top-30 in the country. I'm assured of that. The offense may not look pretty some nights, but Musselman has enough bites at the apple on this roster to find a combination that's good enough to get the Trojans back to the Big Dance.
10. Ohio State
Breakdown: Purdue and Ohio State were the only high-major teams to return their three best players. Bruce Thornton offers 17 points a night on elite efficiency. John 'Juni' Mobley Jr. may very well be the best shooter in the entire league, and Devin Royal is a mismatch-hunting problem. The Buckeyes' offense just has to hum, especially after the sharp addition of Santa Clara 7-foot transfer Christoph Tilly. The big fella has an impressive combination of size, shooting and feel as a connector.
But Ohio State's personnel defensively isn't anything to write home about. When Ohio State needed a stop last year, it couldn't get one. Opponents racked up an absurd 135.3 offensive rating against Ohio State in clutch time, per CBB Analytics. That was the worst in the Big Ten. Freshman forward A'mare Bynum is a capable interior defender and needs to be ready to go. If Ohio State's defense can stay inside the top-50 nationally, it will make the Big Dance and ease the scrutiny on Jake Diebler.
11. Indiana
Breakdown: Indiana's combination of skill and shooting jumps off the tape. Tucker DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson are professional net-shredders, and toolsy 6-10 big man Reed Bailey has the handle, vision and slippery drives that draw comparisons to former Michigan star Danny Wolf. Indiana is primed to take a ton of treys in 2025-26, which will feel like paradise after four years of finishing last or second-to-last in the Big Ten in 3-point rate under Mike Woodson.
Keep an eye on the point guard play. Troy transfer Tayton Conerway and DePaul transfer Conor Enright need to ace their roles. Indiana desperately needs its zoom-zoom guards to pressure the rim consistently and create those open 3-pointers. Darian DeVries also needs 'em to be nasty point-of-attack defenders because the interior defense is going to be a major cause for concern. When Indiana's 3-pointers are dropping, the Hoosiers could beat anyone in the league. But a shaky rim defense could lead to some rocky moments. Florida transfer big man Sam Alexis needs to be an asset.
12. Washington
Breakdown: Washington is all-in on making a serious surge in Year 2 under Danny Sprinkle. There are legitimately 12 or 13 guys on this roster who could get minutes in a Big Ten game tomorrow. The fight for minutes and roles will be fierce.
It's hard to fully illustrate just how improved Washington's guard play will be after the influx of Wesley Yates III (baller), Desmond Claude (bucket, but you have to do it his way), Quimari Peterson (baller) and four-star freshman JJ Mandaquit (baller). It's a sharp mix of set-the-table guys, halfcourt isolation bucket-getters, floor-spacers and transition menaces in that group.
Yates should be Washington's best free agent addition, but only by a hair because German freshman Hannes Steinbach is going to be a flat-out stud. The 6-foot-11 big man has terrific hands and is a double-double machine. He earned my vote for Big Ten Freshman of the Year in this exercise.
The depth and optionality on this roster is so apparent. UW is an NCAA Tournament team in 2025-26.
13. Maryland
Breakdown: Maryland is going to hit you under new head coach Buzz Williams. The Terrapins' front-line trio of Elijah Saunders, Solomon Washington and Pharrel Payne is one of the most physical units in the league. Offensive rebounding and interior defense should be real strengths of this club, but guard play is the separator between good and great in this league. Can Williams, long a beacon of positivity, instill confidence back into Myles Rice? Isaiah Watts, Darius Adams and Diggy Coit can all round out this backcourt rotation, but the Terps can't go back to the Big Dance without Rice being a stud again.
This roster has strengths that travel in the Big Ten every night, but the Terps have been snake-bitten in the preseason, losing Kansas transfer wing Rakease Passmore to an Achilles injury and Washington to a multi-week ankle injury. Maryland has to get Washington back into the mix to reach the peak of its powers defensively. He's one of the elite wing defenders in all of college basketball.
14. Nebraska
Breakdown: A healthy Rienk Mast is a problem. The Nebraska big man just makes the Huskers go as a pick-and-pop weapon who can score inside and out and pass the ever-lovin' cover off the rock. Fred Hoiberg is one of the best offensive masterminds in college basketball, and he will have at least one dynamic shooter on the floor at all times with Pryce Sandfort or Connor Essegian. Nebraska also smartly loaded up on a cavalry of playable big men behind Mast, highlighted by Central Michigan transfer Ugnius Jarusevicius and returning junior Berke Buyuktuncel, who can be one of the best defenders in the league.
Ultimately, guard play could determine whether Nebraska is dancing. Jamarques Lawrence is primed to get the first crack at that ultra-important role.
15. Northwestern
Breakdown: Nick Martinelli and his unguardable "flipper" is back to defend his Big Ten scoring title. Good luck and best wishes trying to keep him under 20 a night. Chris Collins' supporting cast will look vastly different, but there's talent here. Jitterbug point guard Jayden Reid will bring some pizzazz, and sophomore KJ Windham is a massive breakout candidate. He just lives in the gym and certainly showed what he could do down the stretch as a freshman. Holy Cross transfer Max Green and top-100 freshman Tre Singleton are fascinating young bets who should stick in this rotation, too.
Cincinnati transfer Arrinten Page is shaping up to be a massive X-Factor. It's almost impossible for Northwestern's defense to stay afloat without Page offering real appeal as a physical specimen and terrifying rim protector.
16. Minnesota
Breakdown: Niko Medved has constructed a veteran-laden lineup stacked full of complementary skillsets. His layered, precise offense can be a big wing's paradise, especially if you can shoot. Enter Cade Tyson. The downtrodden North Carolina transfer looks every bit the part of a revival candidate in this scheme, and Minnesota has two guards (Isaac Asuma and Chansey Willis Jr.) who should mesh well together. There's shooting, playmaking and lots of wing depth on this roster, namely Bobby Durkin and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson.
The center trio of Robert Vaihola, Nehemiah Turner or Grayson Grove doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Medved has made a career doing more with less.
17. Rutgers
Breakdown: Defense has to be the name of the game for Steve Pikiell's group to find any success. Junior guard Jamichael Davis can heat up the ball. Emmanuel Ogbole is a massive interior defender. Dylan Grant leads a stable of big wings that Pikiell will have at his disposal. But it's hard to see this offense finding pathways to success on a nightly basis. Tariq Francis stepback 3-pointers? Darren Buchanan bully-ball drives? Harun Zrno is so clearly going to need to be a bucket-getter to survive in the Big Ten.
This roster just doesn't look up to par with its Big Ten counterparts.
Dylan Harper, you are missed.
18. Penn State
Breakdown: Prized freshman Kayden Mingo and returning guard Freddie Dilione V will be Penn State's top trigger-men all year, but Mike Rhoades needs some of his upside swings to connect in a major way to flirt with a NCAA Tournament bid. Freshman Turkish guard Melih Tunca offers shooting and playmaking appeal. Eli Rice is finally healthy and could add some floor-spacing pop with great positional size at 6-8.
But this roster took a massive hit after Yanic Konan Niederhauser vaulted into a first-round pick late in the pre-draft process. Penn State had serious capital tied up with the hopes of getting the 7-footer back to Happy Valley for Year 2, but it was not meant to be. The fallout is obvious. This frontcourt room is one of the least-proven, high-major units in the Big Ten. Croatian big man Ivan Juric or UIC transfer Sasa Ciani better be up to the challenge, or this interior defense could get pulverized.
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