Losses by the Bills and Raiders in Week 3 left just three undefeated teams in the NFL, and that's exactly where we stand heading into Week 7. The Chiefs were off in Week 5 but came back to easily handle the Chargers last week, while the Vikings took a 5-0 record into their Week 6 bye. The 49ers withstood a late charge by the Commanders on Monday night to become the league's only 6-0 team.
With all three teams in action in Week 7, possibilities range from all three getting to next week undefeated to all three taking their first loss on Sunday. Here, we'll break down the last undefeated team odds market at Caesars Sportsbook to determine which of the 49ers, Chiefs or Vikings makes for the best bet.
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Odds to be the last undefeated NFL team
- 49ers +100
- Vikings +200
- Chiefs +300
Odds are via Caesars Sportsbook and are subject to change. Dead heat rules apply, meaning that if more than one team ties, the odds for each team will be divided by the number of tied teams. For example, if the 49ers and Vikings finish in a tie, a $100 bet on the 49ers would return $100 instead of $200, while a $100 bet on the Vikings would return $150 instead of $300.
Week 7
The 49ers travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons, and they'll be trying to win the game without top receiver Mike Evans after he suffered an Achilles injury on Monday. Current consensus odds set the money line at around -175, with the Falcons at around +145 to hand San Francisco its first loss. The midpoint between those two money lines puts the market's true odds of a 49ers win at about 61%.
The Vikings come out of their bye hosting a Colts team that just lost at home to the previously winless Titans. Current consensus odds have the Vikings at around -290 and the Colts at around +230. The midpoint between those two money lines puts the market's true odds of a Vikings win at around 72%.
The Chiefs enter Week 7 as underdogs despite their undefeated record, traveling to Seattle to face the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Current consensus odds have the Chiefs at around +122 and the Seahawks about -145, putting the market's true odds of a Chiefs win at around 43%.
If the market is correct on those probabilities, here are the projected chances for one of those three teams to end the week as the only undefeated team:
- 49ers: 9.7%
- Vikings: 16%
- Chiefs: 4.7%
Here are the expectations that only two teams make it another week undefeated:
- 49ers and Vikings: 25%
- 49ers and Chiefs: 7.3%
- Vikings and Chiefs: 12.1%
Finally, there's an 18.9% chance all three teams win, and a 6.2% chace that all three teams lose.
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Upcoming schedules for undefeated teams
San Francisco 49ers
After facing the Falcons in Week 7, the 49ers get to take their bye, which is the biggest reason they're the favorites to be the last undefeated team. If they can beat the Falcons, which they're projected to do about 61% of the time, there's a 100% chance they'll be undefeated after Week 8 as well.
The 49ers host the Raiders after their bye and are expected to be heavily favored. Based on my current power ratings, I could see them as touchdown favorites or slightly better, depending on the health of their roster. Then they'll travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys, and a healthier 49ers team could be even bigger favorites against Dallas than the 49ers are this week against the Falcons. They'll face the currently undefeated Vikings in Mexico City in Week 11.
My estimates based on this week's implied odds and my projected power rating spreads have the likelihood of the 49ers being undefeated at the end of each week as follows:
- Week 7: 61%
- Week 8: 61%
- Week 9: 47.4%
- Week 10: 33.4%
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have the best chance to win in Week 7 among the three undefeated teams when they face the Colts, but then the schedule gets much tougher. Trips to Detroit in Week 8 and Green Bay in Week 10 sandwich a home matchup against a strong Bills offense. Depending on whether the Packers continue to play well after early-season struggles, the Vikings could be underdogs in all three of those games.
Based on my spread projections for each of those matchups, here are the estimates for the Vikings remaining undefeated each week before they face the 49ers in Mexico City in Week 11:
- Week 7: 72%
- Week 8: 30.5%
- Week 9: 15.2%
- Week 10: 7.5%
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Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have the longest odds to be the last undefeated team as they enter Week 7 underdogs against the Seahawks in Seattle. They have to go on the road again the following week against a 4-2 Broncos team but get a break after those two road matchups. The Chiefs also had no trouble taking care of the Broncos in Week 1, winning 31-10 as Denver failed to reach 200 yards on offense.
The Chiefs host the Jets in Week 9 and the Cardinals in Week 11, and they'll be huge favorites in each matchup. In between, they'll take the same trip to Atlanta that the 49ers have this week.
Here's how the probabilities look for the Chiefs remaining undefeated each week based on the Week 7 money line and my own power ratings spread projections beyond this week:
- Week 7: 43%
- Week 8: 29.9%
- Week 9: 25.4%
- Week 10: 18.4%
Last undefeated team best bet: Chiefs +300
I have a higher rating on the Chiefs than the market, as I think they're closer to a coin flip to beat the Seahawks rather than 43% to win. I'm also not a believer in the Broncos given the state of their offense, so I see the Chiefs as a value play compared to the other two teams pretty quickly at this price.
Even with the 49ers having a 0% chance of losing during their bye week, I have the Chiefs at about half their odds to stay undefeated through Week 8, while they offer triple the potential payout of the 49ers. Their odds get even better over the next two weeks, and then the Chiefs will have about a 16.5% chance of getting through Week 11 undefeated, while the 49ers will have to face the Vikings on a neutral field that week. Even if the 49ers are three-point favorites in that game, they'll only be around 20% to come out of that game undefeated based on our previous projections.
The Vikings have the best chance of the three teams to end Week 7 as the only undefeated team, but if either of the other two teams wins, their edge disappears immediately.
If I were to set the odds on the last undefeated NFL team, I would give the 49ers about a 45% chance of pulling it off, the Chiefs a 30% chance, and the Vikings a 25% chance. That would make the 49ers closer to +125, the Chiefs about +230 and the Vikings at +300. While the 49ers still have the best chance at being the last undefeated team, the odds value favors the Chiefs, who also provide more potential payout in a dead-heat scenario where the final undefeated teams lose their first game in the same week.
