Detroit Tigers officials are essentially on the clock and must decide soon whether they will be adding or selling at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. It's possible that the emergence of second-year starting pitcher Troy Melton could have an impact on that decision. The 25-year-old is on the mound Thursday for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch against the visiting Kansas City Royals. That's the last game on a light five-game slate. It seems like a good night to go see "The Odyssey."
Detroit is a strong -229 money-line favorite for MLB betting on Thursday, with Kansas City +192 in the latest MLB odds, and you can wager on Royals vs. Tigers on all the top sports betting apps. The Over/Under for total runs scored in the game is 8.5.
Royals-Tigers MLB same-game parlay
- Detroit money line
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
- Alt Under 10.5
FanDuel: SGP price: +148
Earlier this week, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch acknowledged his club had been essentially playing must-win baseball for weeks in terms of convincing the front office to keep two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and others at the deadline or ship them out and focus on 2027.
"We've been playing Game 7 since May," Hinch said Monday. "We know what's ahead. We know what the conversation around our team is. Tarik is in the news every single day because someone has a dream trade to make up -- yet we have a game to win that night."
The schedule is quite easy leading into the deadline, starting with four at home against the AL Central last-place Royals and then three at Comerica Park vs. the mediocre Orioles before heading out on a West Coast trip on July 31. Circle that day as likely when a decision will be made about selling or not.
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There are two ways to look at this regarding Melton, in my opinion, if he's the real deal at 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine starts after an equally promising 2025 rookie campaign. He was the franchise's No. 13 overall prospect entering last year. If Melton is a future ace, you feel better about dealing Skubal because you have the replacement and you can beef up the farm system. But on the flip side, a rotation of Skubal, Mize and Melton could do some damage in the postseason should Detroit get there.
At 48-54, the Tigers are 4.5 games out of the AL's final wild card spot, but it might be easier to simply win the weak AL Central, where they are 6.5 games back. For the postseason, Detroit is +350 with No at -450, while the SportsLine Projection Model gives the team a 24.1% chance.
Melton was sidelined for the first two months of the season due to elbow inflammation (the team was 21-33 when he debuted). He appears to be getting stronger, as in three July starts he is 1-0 with a 0.52 ERA. Last time out, he became only the fifth pitcher in franchise history age 25 or younger to record back-to-back nine-strikeout efforts, joining Skubal, Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Thompson.
This season, Melton is throwing his cut fastball 20.5% of the time and batters are hitting just .083 off it with a 26.0% whiff rate. In 2025, Melton threw the pitch 10.8% of the time with a .368 OBA and a 12.8% whiff rate. The cutter is averaging 92.2 mph in 2026, up from 90.9 mph. Overall, he uses six pitches but his curveball the least at 2%.
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Bettors who wagered $100 on each of Melton's nine starts for Detroit to win would be up $444. His lone outings vs. the Royals were last year when Melton was largely a reliever, and he allowed one run and five hits over three innings in two appearances with no decisions. The model has him at 5.6 innings, 4.3 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.7 earned runs tonight.
Nothing to see here for the Royals as they will be selling ahead of the deadline. Franchise player and All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. landed on the injured list Wednesday for the first time in his career, ending any AL MVP chances Witt had. The 26-year-old was batting .279 with 13 home runs, 39 RBIs and an American League-leading 30 steals.
Looks to be a bullpen-type night on the mound for K.C., led by veteran Randy Dobnak, who has a 1.93 ERA but no decisions in 14.0 innings this year. No joke, his birthplace is South Park ⦠Pennsylvania. The only active Tigers batter to have seen him is Gleyber Torres (0-for-2, two BB).
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Wednesday's parlay of backing Houston at home, Under 1.5 first-inning runs and alt Under 10.5 full game cashed easily at +137. Let's go right back to the well on this one at a better price. Doesn't look like a great hitters' night at Comerica Park with winds blowing in a bit and not too hot. The model has Tigers 5.2-4.0. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
