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Robert Kraft's first attempt at trying to replace Bill Belichick was a disaster, as the Patriots fired Jerod Mayo after one 4-13 season at the helm. Kraft hired Mike Vrabel, a former Patriots linebacker as well as a former Tennessee head coach, to take over on the sidelines in January, and there is now a lot of optimism in betting markets on this New England team. 

But is all of the Patriots' offseason hype warranted? Let's check out their notable futures odds at Caesars Sportsbook and offer a couple of best bets.

Super Bowl: +7000 (21st)
Conference: +3000 (9th)
NFC No. 1 seed: +2000 (8th)
Division: +625 (2nd)
Playoffs: Yes +140, No -170
Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
MVP: Drake Maye +6000 (T-21st)

Best Bets: Patriots Under 8.5 wins -120 (DraftKings), Patriots to miss the playoffs -140 (DraftKings)

The Patriots (4.5) were one of eight teams with a win total of 6.5 or lower last season. Three of those teams—Vikings (6.5) went 14-3, Commanders (6.5) went 12-5 and Broncos (5.5) went 10-7—went well Over their win total. The Patriots (4.5), Panthers (5.5), Raiders (6.5), Giants (6.5) and Titans (6.5) all ended up finishing Under their win totals.

The Patriots are the only team of those other five that now has a win total higher than 6.5 for 2025, let alone all the way up at 8.5. Sure, the Patriots hired Vrabel, but there were big changes made by some of these other teams as well, like the Raiders hiring Pete Carroll as their new head coach and Vrabel's former team, the Titans, drafting Cameron Ward at No. 1 overall to be their new quarterback. 

Even with some notable free-agent pickups on the defensive side of the ball and an easy fourth-place schedule, this is still a massive leap that the Patriots would need to make. That 8.5 is baking in pretty much everything going smoothly in Vrabel's first season and no growing pains with second-year quarterback Drake Maye. 

We've also seen many times in the past that just because teams go on major free-agent sprees the previous offseason, it doesn't necessarily translate to a lot more wins. In 2024, the Panthers spent the most money in free agency and improved by three wins to 5-12. Among the last 10 teams that spent the most money in free agency the offseason before, just four of them made the playoffs that season.  

There is so much that needs to go right for a team to finish with a winning record in the NFL, especially when that team just finished with a losing season the year prior. I feel like the Patriots finishing with seven or eight wins would be considered a success overall to start the Vrabel era, but making the playoffs seems like a stretch.

Best Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 625.5 Yards -115 (Caesars)

In his four-year career in New England, Stevenson has had trouble staying healthy, and he's been benched for fumbling issues. He averaged 4.0 and 3.9 yards per carry in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, respectively. Then the Patriots went out and drafted Tre'Veyon Henderson in the second round this April, and he's looked like he's playing at a different speed than most other players during his preseason appearances. 

We don't exactly know how the carries will be split up, but Henderson figures to have a big role considering the draft capital the Patriots spent on him, even with all of the holes in other areas on the team. Whether it's another Stevenson injury, another costly Stevenson fumble or Henderson looking strong from the start, there are a few different ways you can envision Stevenson being phased out of the offense. 

Stevenson's unfortunate combo of a career-high six fumbles and career-low 3.9 yards per carry does not give him a long leash, especially under a new regime that selected their guy in Henderson.