NFL Week 6 totals: Cowboys vs. Panthers, Bengals vs. Packers among best Over/Under bets
Is the Over the play before the Packers get to feast on the Cincinnati defense? Check out our best totals picks for Week 6
The Over has has cashed in 52.6% of games so far this NFL season -- a definite weight to one side of the equation, but is it enough to be a trend? Perhaps, but that doesn't mean you should start hammering Overs without taking stock of the betting landscape in each game. Below are three games with strong leans from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times.
If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway.
Cowboys at Panthers Over 49.5
Dallas leads the league in both yards gained per game and yards conceded per game. The Cowboys were all but designed in a lab to generate Overs. And despite all the negativity surrounding Bryce Young, the Carolina offense is capable of moving the ball a bit -- the Panthers are just below the middle of the pack in yards per game. They haven't been as good at converting those yards into points, of course, but you can score on Dallas. This Over is hitting in 61% of the model's simulations.
Patriots at Saints Under 45.5
Drake Maye has shown some Superman-esque flashes, but color me skeptical that he can force this game Over by himself. The Saints have actually been decent against the pass (they rank ninth with 204 passing yards allowed per game), meaning that offensive firepower would likely need to come from Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Between that, there's a New England defense allowing just 20 points per game facing a bad New Orleans offense. This looks like an easy Under. It's hitting in 65% of the model's simulations.
Bengals at Packers Over 44.5
Letting Josh Jacobs attack what's been the third-worst defense in the league (31.2 points per game!) almost feels cruel and unusual. Jordan love should also have fun, as the Bengals have conceded 259 passing yards per game. While the Cincinnati offense has been ugly ever since Joe Burrow got hurt, Joe Flacco (who ran up 290 passing yards against the Cincy defense) is now a Bengal. The veteran already beat the Packers once this year, and he did it without having Ja'Marr Chase to throw to. The QB change could also finally lead to Tee Higgins being involved again. The Over's hitting in 62% of the model's simulations.
