NFL Week 1 Inside the Lines QB Prop Cheat Sheet: Backing Mayfield and Burrow, fading Flacco and Murray
The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to identify our best sportsline player projections vs the best available odds to build our best bets for quarterbacks in week 1
Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and in addition to three primetime games between Thursday, Friday and Monday, there are also 13 games on the schedule for Sunday as well.
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for all our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog.
As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid. I is very likely that by the time you read, this the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, good for you. If they moved towards our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.
Here are our Week 1 best bets for quarterback player props.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130, BetMGM)
Mayfield and the Bucs are more prolific on the road than at home. They averaged +3 more on the road last season and +4 more on the road versus home in 2023. Mayfield went Over this line in 12 of 18 games, including the playoffs, last season. Our model projects him for 2.3 passing touchdowns, so we'd probably charge you -200.
Atlanta's defense allowed nearly 25 per game, and the Falcons' key to improving is their offense going to the next level with Michael Penix Jr. under center. If that happens, then it ups our chances of a shootout, which would also help our Mayfield over here.
Joe Burrow Over 260.5 passing yards (-115, Fanatics)
The Bengals have stunk horribly in their last two Week 1 games, scoring 10 points versus the Patriots at home in 2024 and just three points versus the Browns in 2023. They face the Browns again, but this time they gave Burrow and the starting offense plenty of run in the preseason ... almost to the point that I thought they were crazy risking injury. But if Burrow is in rhythm like he was down the stretch last season when he ended with a 7-1 Over 260.5 passing yards stretch, he'll crush this number.
Burrow has plenty of experience facing the Browns. His one Under down the stretch last year was versus Cleveland when he had 252 yards, but he did have three passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Plus, I do like Joe Flacco to put up plenty of points versus the Bengals defense and make this a high-scoring shootout with 600 total passing yards possible (just near 300 for Burrow is our projection).
Joe Flacco Over 0.5 interceptions (-175, Caesars)
The game manager Joe Flacco we saw since his first NFL game with the Ravens (also versus Cincinnati) up to the start of his Super Bowl run took care of the ball and sacrificed big passing stats. The one we've seen since leaving Baltimore will just chuck up 50-50 balls, and if he keeps the starting job, he probably will lead the league in games with multiple touchdowns and multiple interceptions. Flacco played clean in his first two games as a starter for Indianapolis last year but then had games with one, one, three, and two picks.
Even in his "magical" playoff run where he was chucking the ball to Amari Cooper with wild abandon in 2023, Flacco finished with 10 interceptions, including his playoff loss to Houston. We give him a 75%+ chance of throwing at least one pick and would price this at -300.
Kyler Murray Over 0.5 interceptions (-114, FanDuel)
Murray is averaging 0.72 interceptions per sim, which is roughly a 60% chance he throws at least one (our price is -150). While he only threw an interception in eight of 17 games last season (which explains the standard juice on Over 0.5), he was much worse in the second half of the season with picks. He had zero in the first two weeks and three in the first 10 weeks before cratering with eight in his final seven games.
People have too much faith that Murray only falls apart when the new Call of Duty comes out. We say he'll start closer to where he ended last season. The Saints may be the worst team in the league, but they don't have the worst defense in the league. The Saints were a respectable 11th in the league with 14 interceptions last season.
Geno Smith Over 2.5 rush attempts (+105, BetMGM)
All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty running the ball, but I personally like when reasonably mobile QBs, like Smith, are on new teams and playing in front of a new fanbase and looking to show new teammates how "tough" they are. There's no better way to get fans and teammates thinking you are a tough guy than by running with the ball a few times for first downs.
I also like plus money on a line that is Under a player's average. In his years as a starter for Seattle, Smith averaged 3.24 yards per game and was 31-19 Over 2.5 rush attempts. Our 2.9 projection is actually Under what he has done in the past. And remember, if the Raiders are up late in victory formation, Smith could get a kneel down or two, which count as rush attempts.
Other Good Model Values
These are our latest Week 1 QB projections versus the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value, we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. Perhaps you don't love all of the same ones I picked above, but you can use this to see if we agree with your personal best bets.
| PASSING | CMP | CMP LINE | PASS | PASS LINE | PASSYD | YD LINE | INT | PASSINT LINE | PASSTD | PASSTD LINE |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 25.1 | 24.5 | 37.8 | Over 36.5 (-105 MGM) | 295 | Over 260.5 (-115 FAN) | 0.6 | o0.5 | 2.36 | 1.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 26.3 | Over 23.5 (-115 MGM) | 34.7 | 32.5 | 268 | Over 243.5 (-114 FD) | 0.61 | o0.5 | 1.81 | Over 1.5 (+104 FD) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 24.5 | Over 21.5 (-112 FD) | 32.5 | 33.5 | 260 | Over 239.5 (-111 DK) | 0.9 | -114, 53.3% (FD) | 2.28 | Over 1.5 (-130 MGM) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 24.4 | 23.5 | 35.2 | 35.5 | 251 | 242.5 | 0.7 | +102, 49.5% (DK) | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 21.9 | 21.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 249 | 240.5 | 0.73 | -105, 51.2% (FD) | 1.85 | Over 1.5 (-109 DK) |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 19.6 | 18.5 | 27.3 | 29.5 | 249 | Over 227.5 (-115 MGM) | 0.33 | o0.5 | 1.89 | Over 1.5 (-116 DK) |
| Kyler Murray (ARI) | 21.7 | 20.5 | 32.7 | 31.5 | 247 | Over 220.5 (-115 FAN) | 0.72 | -114, 53.3% (FD) | 1.48 | 1.5 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 20.4 | Under 21.5 (-110 MGM) | 30.1 | 32.5 | 246 | Over 243.5 (+100 CS) | 0.72 | -110, 52.4% (MGM) | 1.33 | Under 1.5 (+100 CS) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 19.2 | Under 21.5 (-102 DK) | 31.5 | 32.5 | 246 | 238.5 | 0.65 | o0.5 | 1.64 | 1.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) | 21.4 | 21.5 | 32 | 33.5 | 242 | 233.5 | 0.94 | -125, 55.6% (CS) | 1.37 | 1.5 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 18.4 | 20.5 | 29.5 | 31.5 | 242 | 234.5 | 0.71 | -102, 50.5% (FD) | 1.75 | Over 1.5 (+102 FD) |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 21.8 | 21.5 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 238 | 241.5 | 0.74 | -105, 51.2% (FD) | 1.5 | Over 1.5 (+109 DK) |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 21.7 | Over 20.5 (-105 MGM) | 30.3 | 30.5 | 236 | 228.5 | 0.54 | o0.5 | 1.99 | Over 1.5 (-114 FD) |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 23.8 | 23.5 | 37.8 | 36.5 | 230 | Under 249.5 (-112 DK) | 0.86 | -151, 60.2% (DK) | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | 22.7 | Over 19.5 (-110 MGM) | 33.2 | Over 29.5 (-110 MGM) | 229 | Over 201.5 (-115 MGM) | 1.25 | -118, 54.1% (MGM) | 1.57 | Over 1.5 (+140 MGM) |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | 18.3 | 20.5 | 27.4 | Under 31.5 (-114 FD) | 228 | 220.5 | 0.9 | -114, 53.3% (FD) | 1.34 | 1.5 |
| Joe Flacco (CLE) | 22.3 | 21.5 | 35.6 | 34.5 | 226 | 236.5 | 1.24 | -175, 64.8% (CS) | 1.43 | 1.5 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 19.3 | 20.5 | 31 | 32.5 | 226 | 233.5 | 0.62 | o0.5 | 1.26 | 1.5 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 23.3 | Over 20.5 (-112 DK) | 34.2 | 31.5 | 224 | 210.5 | 0.63 | o0.5 | 2.13 | 1.5 |
| Bryce Young (CAR) | 21.6 | Over 19.5 (-110 MGM) | 32.1 | 31.5 | 223 | 213.5 | 0.72 | -114, 53.3% (FD) | 1.5 | Over 1.5 (+150 CS) |
| Geno Smith (LV) | 21.8 | 21.5 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 223 | 228.5 | 0.7 | o0.5 | 1.37 | 1.5 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 17.4 | 18.5 | 24.4 | 27.5 | 219 | 212.5 | 0.42 | o0.5 | 1.99 | Over 1.5 (+120 MGM) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 22.2 | Over 20.5 (-117 DK) | 32.7 | 31.5 | 218 | 214.5 | 0.91 | -108, 51.9% (FD) | 1.72 | Over 1.5 (+122 FD) |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 20.1 | 19.5 | 32.8 | 31.5 | 218 | Over 200.5 (-115 FAN) | 0.61 | o0.5 | 1.53 | Over 1.5 (+150 CS) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 19.3 | 21.5 | 30.4 | Under 32.5 (-105 MGM) | 218 | Under 237.5 (-115 MGM) | 0.41 | o0.5 | 1.67 | 1.5 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 19.1 | 20.5 | 29.6 | Under 31.5 (-105 MGM) | 206 | Under 231.5 (-114 FD) | 0.49 | o0.5 | 1.27 | 1.5 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 21.4 | 20.5 | 31.5 | 31.5 | 205 | Under 218.5 (-110 CS) | 0.57 | o0.5 | 1.46 | 1.5 |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | 18.6 | 20.5 | 29.5 | Under 32.5 (-105 MGM) | 199 | 217.5 | 0.6 | o0.5 | 1.27 | 1.5 |
| Cameron Ward (TEN) | 18 | 19.5 | 27.7 | 32.5 | 190 | 186.5 | 0.83 | o0.5 | 1.14 | -236, 70.2% (DK) |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 14.7 | Under 20.5 (-135 MGM) | 25.2 | Under 29.5 (-120 MGM) | 186 | Under 202.5 (-115 MGM) | 0.76 | +108, 48.1% (FD) | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Justin Fields (NYJ) | 18 | 16.5 | 29.9 | Over 26.5 (-126 DK) | 185 | 173.5 | 0.63 | o0.5 | 1.14 | -170, 63% (DK) |
| Spencer Rattler (NO) | 17.3 | 18.5 | 29.1 | 31.5 | 179 | 187.5 | 0.72 | o0.5 | 1.1 | +205, 32.8% (FD) |
These are just a fraction of our best bets all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game.
What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" These are ones where:
1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."
AND
2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.
Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.
