NFL quarterback props Top 40 cheat sheet: Back Lamar and Kyler Murray, fade Flacco Week 2

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As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid. I is very likely that by the time you read, this the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, good for you. If they moved towards our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Here are our Week 2 best bets for quarterback player props.

Lamar Jackson Over 216.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

Jackson only had 209 passing yards because for 90% of the Week 1 game against the Bills, it looked like Baltimore had things wrapped up and didn't need to keep passing up two scores. While the defense is taking the brunt of the criticism, it's also clear Baltimore can't get conservative and predictable on offense even if the Ravens are up big against the Browns.

The great thing we saw for Baltimore against Buffalo is Jackson was nearly perfect with a 140+ passer rating. Baltimore had the highest explosive play rate in a single game in over a decade. DeAndre Hopkins may be slower but his hands are still great. Historically, Jackson has averaged 10 more passing yards at home and while his pre-2024 average was under 200 per game, he averaged 245.4 passing yards per game in 2024. He was 12-8 going Over 216.5 pass yards a year ago, including in both Browns games.

Joe Flacco Over 0.5 interceptions (-185, BetMGM)

In last week's picks, we not only had Over 0.5 interceptions but we predicted Flacco would lead the league in multiple-interception games. Even though the picks weren't necessarily Flacco's fault, he still had two against Cincinnati in Week 1. I think Flacco is still a very good quarterback but he can occasionally become a gunslinger who lets the ball rip into tight spaces.

The Ravens secondary has a problem catching interceptions. Even first-round pick Malaki Starks dropped a fairly easy one against Buffalo on the first drive, which would have probably won the game for Baltimore in hindsight. Chido Awuzie played well but he also didn't hold onto a surefire game-clinching pick. Last year against the Jameis Winston-led Browns, the great Kyle Hamilton dropped a game-sealing interception. So why have confidence Flacco throws at least one? Because eventually, regression to the mean will mean multiple interceptions.

Kyler Murray Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+115, BetMGM)  

If they played the season 1,000 times, I guarantee you this would be Murray's highest average TD game... and this is what our simulation model does. Carolina's defense was abysmal last season, allowing 35.9 points per game on the road. Their opponents averaged 8.5 yards per pass and that includes six weak division games with only Baker Mayfield really having a good year.

Murray had a down year last year in terms of passing touchdown rate. He had a touchdown in 4.4% of his pass attempts his first three seasons but that was down to 3.9% last season. Marvin Harrison Jr. has a scored a touchdown on a whopping 7.4% of his targets. If Murray keeps building trust with Harrison Jr., who had a touchdown on five catches in Week 1 and targets him 10+ times, then I like Murray's chances of having at least two passing scores. 

Dak Prescott Over 21.5 pass completions (-132, FanDuel)

Javonte Williams had a shockingly good debut with two touchdowns but he still only had 54 rushing yards on 15 carries, which is great for 2024 Javonte Williams, but still under 4.0 ypc. Rookie Jaydon Blue apparently isn't ready according to coach/GM/owner Jerry Jones and Miles Sanders had a really costly fumble against Philadelphia. Long story short, the Cowboys need Prescott to pass plenty and he'll complete a high enough percentage to go over this line. The model projects him at 25 completions.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where the -132 line comes from. It implies 56.9% success rate, which is Prescott's exact career Over 21.5 pass completions success rate. The Giants have quality defenders but Prescott at home against a bad team is still in a better than average situation.

Jared Goff Over 248.5 passing yards (-115, Fanatics)

The Bears pass defense looked good until J.J. McCarthy started figuring things out. Last season, Detroit got lucky in its first matchup on Thanksgiving where Chicago looked like it would at least tie the game in regulation. Chicago held Goff to just 221 passing yards. A few weeks later, the Lions showed the Bears who was boss with a 17-point win and where Goff had 336 passing yards.

An angry Detroit team looking to show their former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson they can still be a league-leading offense without him will help Goff top this line. Goff was 11-7 on Overs on this line last season and the Lions averaged 55 more passing yards at home (280) than on the road.

Sam Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions (+110, FanDuel) 

I'm not saying Darnold is going to turn into a pumpkin now that he doesn't have Kevin O'Connell as the offensive play caller and coach or Justin Jefferson, but there is a chance. His fumble that ultimately killed what looked like a game-winning drive against the 49ers wasn't necessarily his fault, but did show a lack of pocket awareness. I know fumbles in the pocket are not the same thing as interceptions but for me it showed a crack in the "Darnold is a great QB now" armor and things could go off the rails at any moment.

Even in his great 2024 season, Darnold had an interception in 10 of 19 games and the model would set this prop at -300, so to get plus money is a great value. He had a four-game stretch without an interception, which really helped change the narrative last season but maybe that had more to do with the low-quality defenses Darnold faced (Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons) instead of him figuring it out when it comes to turnovers.

Other Good Model Values

These are our latest Week 2 QB projections versus the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value, we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. Perhaps you don't love all of the same ones I picked above, but you can use this to see if we agree with your personal best bets. The table below was updated on Friday September 12.

These are just a fraction of our best bets all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game.