NFL predictions: Proven model says Bengals had better options than Joe Flacco to replace Jake Browning at QB
According to the SportsLine Inside the Lines team's projection model, a familiar face at quarterback would have given Cincinnati a better chance to make the playoffs than Joe Flacco
When Joe Burrow suffered what might wind up being a season-ending toe injury in Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season, the Cincinnati Bengals felt comfortable with Jake Browning taking over at quarterback. Three weeks later, the team was feeling differently.
Browning replaced Burrow in the second quarter of Cincinnati's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and guided the team to scores on four of his eight full possessions, including a 1-yard touchdown run of his own with 18 seconds remaining in the fourth that gave the Bengals a 31-27 victory. But the 29-year-old signal-caller also threw three interceptions in that contest and five more over his first three games as the starter, all of which were losses, which puts him one behind Geno Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders (nine) for the dubious NFL lead.
Following Browning's three-interception performance in Sunday's 37-24 setback against the Detroit Lions, many felt the Bengals would test the waters and explore other options. Several quarterbacks around the league likely are available, such as New York Giants teammates Jameis Winston and Super Bowl XLVIII champion Russell Wilson, one of which figures to be expendable since the team has stated rookie Jaxson Dart will be its starter for the rest of the season.
Some other possibilities include Jimmy Garoppolo of the Los Angeles Rams, Kirk Cousins of the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers backup Andy Dalton, who was selected by Cincinnati in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft and started for the team from 2011-19.
However, the Bengals elected to go a different route and acquired Joe Flacco from the Cleveland Browns on Tuesday. Drafted 18th overall in 2008 by Baltimore, the 40-year-old Flacco helped the Ravens to victory in Super Bowl XLVII during his 11-year tenure with the club before spending the next seven seasons with as many different teams - including the Browns and New York Jets twice.
Flacco started Cleveland's first four games this season, completing 93-of-160 pass attempts for 815 yards with two touchdowns and six interceptions. The 2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year who guided the Browns to four consecutive victories and a wild card berth down the stretch after replacing an injured Deshaun Watson that season was benched in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel last week but could start for the visiting Bengals against the Green Bay Packers in Week 6.
SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model doesn't see Flacco making a positive impact should he become Cincinnati's starting quarterback ahead of Browning. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels the Bengals' chances to succeed would be better with Dalton under center.
WINS | MAKING PLAYOFFS | WINNING DIVISION | WINNING CONFERENCE | WINNING SUPER BOWL | |
With Jake Browning | 6.6 | 9.7% | 5.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Joe Flacco | 6.5 | 8.0% | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Andy Dalton | 6.7 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Kirk Cousins | 6.6 | 9.5% | 5.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Jimmy Garoppolo | 6.4 | 7.8% | 4.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Russell Wilson | 6.3 | 7.5% | 4.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
With Jameis Winston | 6.0 | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
According to the ITL team's model, replacing Browning with Flacco actually has a negative impact on Cincinnati's outlook for the postseason. The major sportsbooks also don't see the quarterback change doing much for the Bengals, as they are as high as +750 to make the playoffs at BetMGM Sportsbook and +1700 to finish first in the AFC North at DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings has the least amount of faith in Cincinnati for a lengthy playoff run, listing the team at +30000 to reach the Super Bowl and +70000 to win it.
The Bengals opened as 2.5-point underdogs in their matchup against the Packers at most sportsbooks. But with Flacco potentially starting over Browning, the consensus odds have them as 14.5-point dogs against a well-rested Green Bay team coming off a bye. The Packers will be eager to redeem themselves after squandering a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a 13-10 loss to Cleveland in Week 3 and blowing a four-point advantage with less than one minutes remaining in the fourth quarter of a 40-40 tie against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.
