NFL predictions: Jets have hope to avoid an 0-17 season, according to proven model

M! E! S! S! Mess! Mess! Mess!

The New York Jets are having another trainwreck of a year. At 0-7, they are the only winless team in the NFL and are on track to have their 10th straight losing season. They rank last in the league in passing offense (143.4 yards per game) and fourth to last in the NFL in total offense (271.3). They have forced only one turnover, which is the fewest by any NFL team through seven games in the last 85 years of the league.

Oh, and they have a huge hole at the most important position on the field. Justin Fields, who's in his first season in New York, is the first NFL quarterback since Joey Harrington in 2006 to have fewer than 50 passing yards in back-to-back starts. After being benched by first-year coach Aaron Glenn on Sunday, Fields is in danger of losing his starting job to 36-year-old journeyman Tyrod Taylor.

The longer the Jets go without a victory, the more likely a record-setting 0-17 season becomes real. But what are the odds that they become just the third winless team since the 1982 Baltimore Colts? SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model have crunched the numbers and uncovered the answer.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says New York enters the Week 8 game at Cincinnati with a 0.6% chance of losing its remaining 10 games and becoming the first 0-17 team in NFL history. (Insert obligatory "So you're telling me there's a chance" Dumb and Dumber joke here.) 

If the Jets lose on Sunday to the Bengals (Cincinnati is a 6.5-point favorite), that percentage would increase to 1.0%.

Emotionally distraught New York fans who have watched the team bumble and stumble this season may think that number needs to be higher, but there's one main thing working in the Jets' favor: the schedule. The team still has five games remaining against teams currently under .500: Bengals (3-4), Browns (2-5), Ravens (1-5), Dolphins (1-6) and Saints (1-6). The Projection Model ranks the team's remaining strength of schedule as the eighth easiest in the league.

New York's chances of going winless essentially grows by about 1.0% with each loss through November. The tipping point would come in the Week 14 game at home against Miami. If the Jets are still winless at that point and lose to the similarly incompetent Dolphins to fall to 0-13, the chances of New York going winless skyrockets from 8.2% to 21.1%. The Jets' last four games are at the Jaguars, at the Saints and then hosting the Patriots and Bills at MetLife Stadium to close out the regular season.

Glenn, who is just the fourth head coach in the last 10 years to start his coaching career with at least seven straight losses, knows what playing for a winless team is like. He was a member of the 1996 Jets, who lost their first eight games of the season before finishing the year 1-15. 

"I do know this: Our guys are working, and this will turn," he said on Monday. "I understand, man, we're 0-7. It doesn't feel good, but this will turn."