NFL picks: Christian Kirk prop among SportsLine prop expert's best bets for Week 4

A pair of two-time NFL MVP quarterbacks look to help their teams turn things around Sunday as the Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. Entering the season as two of the top Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, the Chiefs and Ravens both have begun with 1-2 record, with Kansas City already two games behind the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West.

For Sunday's matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens, top sportsbooks have set Baltimore running back Derrick Henry's rushing yards prop at 80.5 yards. Meanwhile, Kansas City wideout Xavier Worthy, who is returning from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for two games, has his receiving yards prop set at 46.5.

Before you play a side on Henry, Worthy or any player prop for Week 4 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The SportsLine expert has gone 18-13 (+305) in his last 31 NFL player prop picks.

Christian Kirk Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

Kirk's output of 25 receiving yards in his Texans debut last week left a lot to be desired, but the participation stats were encouraging. The former Cardinals and Jaguars wideout was on the field for 81% of quarterback C.J. Stroud's dropbacks and was the intended target of eight of his 38 pass attempts.

The duo struggled to connect, but Stroud did throw three deep passes to the slot receiver. Kirk's average depth of target of 12.9 yards was similar to Texans' leading receiver Nico Collins.

Of course, this is a one-game sample, but it's evident that Kirk was brought in to complement Collins in the passing game. He'll now face a Titans defense that's allowed 164 yards per game to opposing receivers, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.

I'd bet this up to Over 41.5 receiving yards, as this line is undervaluing Kirk's role in the offense.

Blake Corum Over 19.5 rushing yards (-115, bet365)

On the heels of Rams head coach Sean McVay talking about getting Corum more touches, the second-year running back has received, well, more touches. Corum has had five and eight carries in the last two weeks and gained 44 and 53 yards, respectively.

The Michigan product has been effective as a backup to workhorse Kyren Williams, and I do think he's earned a consistent 6-7 carries going forward. He gets a solid spot against the Colts, who rank 23rd in DVOA against the run and third against the pass.

Betting on a backup running back to clear a yardage total can get tricky, because the concern typically revolves around the workload. Corum should clear this line with just five carries but I do have him closer to six, projected at 28 rush yards. I'd bet this up to over 21.5 yards.

Kam Curl Over 6.5 tackles + assists yards (-115, DraftKings)

We're sticking with the Rams, but flipping over to the defensive side. Curl has come out of the gates on fire in the tackle department.

With 26 combined tackles so far, he's cleared this line in each of the Rams' three games while playing 100% of the defensive snaps. As Quentin Lake has shifted over to full-time slot corner, it's Curl who has become the team's primary run-stopping safety.

The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 15 tackles by opposing safeties per game, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Curl should have ample opportunity to cash in, and I have him projected closer to eight combined tackles. I'd bet this line up to -140.