NFL picks: Bo Nix prop among SportsLine prop expert's best bets for Week 5

The defending Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills attempt to remain the only unbeaten teams when Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season continues Sunday. Both clubs are home as they look to improve to 5-0 this year, with Philadelphia hosting the Denver Broncos (2-2) at 1 p.m. ET and Buffalo facing the New England Patriots (2-2) at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday Night Football.

For Sunday's matchup between the Broncos and Eagles, top sportsbooks have set the rushing yards prop for Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley, who won the NFL rushing title last season, at 81.5 yards. In the Bills vs. Patriots contest, reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen of the Bills has his passing yards prop set at 225.5. 

Before you play a side on Barkley, Allen or any player prop for Week 5 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The SportsLine expert has gone 27-15 (+1003) in his last 42 NFL player prop picks. Here are his analysis and picks:

As we've reached our fifth NFL Sunday, we've unofficially entered what I consider the midseason portion of the schedule. With each team having played four games, we're starting to see trends develop, both offensively and defensively.

With my three favorite bets for today's slate, I'm looking to exploit what I've identified as plus-matchups. It's been a strong start of the season for my picks, so be sure to follow me both on SportsLine and on Twitter/X.

Bo Nix Over 32.5 pass attempts (-115, bet365)

I believe we'll see plenty of pass attempts from second-year signal-caller Bo Nix. The Broncos call pass plays at the eighth-highest rate in the first half of games and play at the second-highest pace, excluding the last two minutes (data courtesy of Roto Viz). While they typically dial it back in the second half and lean on the run, they might not have that luxury against the undefeated Eagles.

Three of four opposing quarterbacks have cleared this line against Philadelphia, which is allowing an average of 39.3 quarterback dropbacks per game.

Sean Payton is not afraid to let his quarterback air it out, and this should be a scenario that calls for it. I'd bet this line up to Over 33.5 attempts.

Garrett Wilson Over 62.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

Despite the lean passing offense of the Jets, Wilson has continued to produce at a top level. He has cleared this line in three of four games, leading the team in targets, receptions, yards, air yards and pretty much every other receiving metric. This also includes his 47% first-read rate, which leads the entire NFL (via Fantasy Points Data).

The matchup against the Cowboys is perfect. Dallas has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing first reads (197), on a ridiculous 2.95 yards per route run.

In a game that figures to be high scoring, it's a smash spot for Wilson, who I have projected close to 80 yards. I'd comfortably bet this to Over 67.5 receiving yards.

Rashid Shaheed Over 3.5 receptions (-115, bet365)

Shaheed has cleared this line in each of his four games this season. Running a more diverse route tree in head coach Kellen Moore's offense, Shaheed's average depth of target of 10.3 yards is significantly less than it was the two previous seasons. Seeing more short and intermediate throws has translated to more target volume for the fourth-year pro.

Shaheed draws a stellar matchup against a Giants secondary that has struggled to defend receivers. The Giants have allowed 15 receptions per game to opposing wideouts, which is the most in the NFL.

It's a tougher spot for New Orleans tight end Juwan Johnson, who is questionable to play with an ankle injury. The Giants man-heavy scheme also is beneficial for Shaheed, who has the highest target rate on the Saints against coverage. I'd bet this up to -145.