NFC East best bets 2025: Jalen Hurts and Eagles to repeat as division champs, Cowboys go over win total
Mackenzie Brooks and the Inside the Lines Team break down where every NFC East team's season is most likely to end and how to make smart futures bets
After the Detroit Lions were the talk of the NFC for all of 2024, the Philadelphia Eagles not only won the conference, but also won the Super Bowl in resounding fashion over the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFC East also had another top storyline in the resurgent Washington Commanders, who behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and new head coach Dan Quinn, made the playoffs, upset the Lions and reached the NFC title game. The Dallas Cowboys had a lost season that resulted in moving on from head coach Mike McCarthy, and the New York Giants are entering a new era of quarterbacks in a potential make-or-break year for head coach Brian Daboll. For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
Philadelphia a good bet to repeat
Last year's Eagles team ascended as the season progressed, and we do not see anything stopping them from repeating as NFC East champs as long as they stay healthy. The Eagles had a +5.5 average point differential in their first eight games, and they won by an average of 14.2 points after that, including a whopping +17 per game differential in the playoffs.
| OUTCOME | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON | DALLAS | NY GIANTS |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +280, 26.3% | 10.7% | +105, 48.8% | 43.4% | -230, 69.7% | 71.5% | -1000, 90.9% | 98.6% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +320, 23.8% | 17.7% | +310, 24.4% | 23.9% | +470, 17.5% | 16.7% | +1300, 7.1% | 1.1% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +340, 22.7% | 23.9% | +470, 17.5% | 17% | +900, 10% | 7.6% | +3000, 3.2% | 0.2% |
| LOSE NFC CHAMP | +550, 15.4% | 16.7% | +1000, 9.1% | 8.6% | +1900, 5% | 2.8% | +7000, 1.4% | 0.1% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +850, 10.5% | 13.1% | +2000, 4.8% | 4.1% | +3600, 2.7% | 1% | +16000, 0.6% | 0% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +750, 11.8% | 17.9% | +1900, 5% | 3% | +4700, 2.1% | 0.4% | +24000, 0.4% | 0% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
The model has strong value on all the outcomes where the Eagles go deep in the playoff, ranging from losing in the Divisional Round to winning the Super Bowl for the second straight year. Believe it or not, Saquon Barkley could contribute even more next season if he is targeted more as a receiver out of the backfield. He had 91 receptions as a rookie for the Giants, but just 33 in his first season with the Eagles.
My favorite bet is probably the safe Eagles to win the NFC East at DraftKings with that price only at -130. The model gives the Eagles a 68% chance of doing just that, which is strong value over the 56.5% the odds imply. Bet the Eagles at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket as well as $200 in bonus bets:
Two seasons ago, we loved Houston to go Over its win total. We didn't know C.J. Stroud would rank among the league leaders in passing yardage, we just knew the team's schedule was really soft. The Washington Commanders are a legit great team that won two road playoff games last year. But it's important to note that they definitely benefited from a soft 2024 regular-season schedule.
The Commanders played five games against playoff teams (1-4 record) in the regular season and got lucky versus Chicago on a last-second Hail Mary touchdown. They have eight games against teams that made the 2024 playoffs this season. There is no good betting value on their likely exit odds right now. The model does have strong value on them to cover -6.5 at a 66% chance to cover week 1 at home vs the Giants.
For now, we are assuming Micah Parsons will be out there for the Cowboys in Week 1 amid an ongoing contract dispute and a public trade request. Even with Parsons on the field, there is value on the Cowboys to miss the playoffs once again, but +2% value on a -230 line doesn't sound too enticing. With a projection of 8.2 wins, I'll take the Cowboys to win Over 7.5 games at -125 on FanDuel. Bet on the Cowboys at FanDuel, where new users get $150 in bonus bets:
I like rookie running back Jaydon Blue providing explosive plays in the running game, resulting in Dallas improving from sixth to last in rushing (third-to-last in yards per carry last year) to at least a top-20 finish. George Pickens as WR2 could be devastating assuming he enjoys getting more targets playing WR2 for a pass-heavy offense than he did as WR1 in Pittsburgh.
The Giants definitely did not make a mistake taking Abdul Carter, but statistically, they were a top-10 team in sacks. The model projects them to improve by 67%, but that is only a two-win increase from the three they had last season. It also hurts that the NFC East plays the super tough NFC North this year. Ordinarily, a last-place team's schedule wouldn't also be one of the hardest (fourth-toughest according to our model), but it is with DET, GB, and MIN on the docket. The Giants also have to play the AFC West, which, like the NFC North, fielded three playoff teams last year in KC, LAC and DEN. Also, one of the other last-placed teams on the Giants' schedule is the 49ers.
I'm not going to bet a -1000 line on New York to miss the playoffs. Under 5.5 wins (-120) at DraftKings seems like the right move.
