Lions vs. Chiefs: Best NFL player props for Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes for Sunday Night Football Week 6
The SportsLine Projection Model has shared its NFL player prop recommendations for the two starting quarterbacks on Sunday Night Football in Week 6
Two perennial playoff contenders face off on Sunday Night Football in Week 6 when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. Kansas City is 2-3 after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday, while the Lions have won four in a row since losing to the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. Can Patrick Mahomes give the Chiefs a breakthrough win on Sunday, or will Jared Goff lead the Lions to a fifth straight win?
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As you may expect, there are plenty of NFL player props for each of these quarterbacks at top sportsbooks. Here, we'll dive into these props with the help of the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and issues grades for prop bets on a 0-5 star scale. Interested bettors should also check out our NFL betting guide.
We'll be using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to look at Goff and Mahomes player props for Sunday Night Football. Check out the SportsLine model forecast for Lions-Chiefs, including player props.
Passing yards props
Patrick Mahomes: 259.5 (Over -112, Under -112)
Jared Goff: 237.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Top pick: Jared Goff Over 237.5 passing yards (5 stars)
The model expects a big day from Goff in the passing department, as he's projected to pass for 285 yards against Kansas City on Sunday. Goff has gone Over 237.5 passing yards twice this year, including last week's win over the Bengals. Goff cleared this line in 11 of 17 regular-season games last year, as well as in the Lions' playoff loss.
Passing TDs props
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 (Over -192, Under +149)
Jared Goff: 1.5 (Over -39, Under +109)
Top Pick: Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (4 stars)
In addition to projecting Goff to go well Over his passing yards prop, the model likes the Over on his passing touchdowns prop, too, projecting him to toss 2.4 touchdowns in Week 6. Goff has multiple passing scores in three games this year, and he had two or more passing touchdowns 12 times in 2024.
Pass attempts props
Patrick Mahomes: 36.5 (Over -105, Under -121)
Jared Goff: 31.5 (Over -115, Under -111)
Top pick: Jared Goff Over 31.5 pass attempts (4 stars)
The model also expects Goff to be airing it out a lot against the Chiefs' defense on Sunday with an Over lean on his pass attempts prop. He's projected to have 31.7 attempts, just Over his 31.5 line. He's cleared this line just once in 2025, which was Week 1 when the Lions were down big to the Packers, and he went Over 31.5 nine times in 2024, including the playoffs.
Pass completions props
Patrick Mahomes: 23.5 (Over -120, Under -106)
Jared Goff: 22.5 (Over -110, Under -116)
Top pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 completions (4 stars)
The model rates the Over for both quarterback's completions prop lines as 4-star plays, so we'll highlight Mahomes here. The model projects the Kansas City signal-caller to complete 25.1 passes against Detroit's defense. Mahomes has cleared 23.5 completions in three of his five games this year, including each of his last two starts.
