I make fun of Tropicana Field all the time in this space and in my daily premium newsletter via SportsLine, and it's deserved, as that place is a mausoleum way past its expiration date. But at least we know there will be no weather postponement, delays or time changes tonight for Game 6 of the ALCS between the Guardians and Rays, as we saw over the weekend in Cleveland. Bet $5+ on ALCS Game 6 to get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass at DraftKings Sportsbook:
It's scheduled for an 8 ET start on TBS, with the National League champion Milwaukee Brewers waiting to host Game 1 of the World Series starting Friday. At -149, Tampa Bay is getting 68% of money and 73% of tickets, but that was very early action. Over 6.5 is taking solid leans. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive $55 in trading bonus credits here:
The Rays were -140 on this series line entering Game 5 and Cleveland +115. With that 3-1 win for a 3-2 series lead, Tampa Bay is now -400 and Cleveland +310. Teams trailing a seven-game series 3-2 have come back to win the series 37 of 117 times (31.6%). Both of the last two teams to trail an ALCS 3-2 after five games have come back to win the series -- the 2025 Blue Jays and 2023 Rangers. So that's good for Cleveland.
But road teams to win Game 5 of a seven-game LCS to take a 3-2 series lead have gone on to win the series seven of 10 times. The Rays are 2-5 all-time in potential clinching games of an ALCS, including 1-1 at home.
Because Friday's Game 4 was pushed to Saturday, that meant Game 5 was moved to Sunday â which was to be the final travel day in the series. So how the bullpens came out of Sunday obviously takes on much bigger significance now, and the Rays came out better because starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen went seven. Both teams might be down to rubble in terms of arms for a possible Game 7 for Tuesday, but we'll worry about that if it happens.
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Rays vs. Guardians MLB same-game parlay
- Tampa Bay money line
- Race to 6 runs: Neither
DraftKings SGP price: +133 (subject to change)
It surely will be all hands on deck tonight, so the starting pitchers may not matter as much as they normally might. In fact, I'm not sure it's going to matter much at all for the Guardians, because they are right in the sweet spot where none of their top three guys in Gavin Williams, Parker Messick or Foster Griffin are on normal rest.
Messick is completely unavailable after throwing 57 pitches in Sunday's loss, although that low total could make him available for Game 7 if necessary. Griffin threw 3.2 innings Saturday, so he should have a few innings in his left arm. The trade acquisition has struck out 15 batters with no walks issued in his three games this postseason to become the first pitcher in MLB history to whiff at least 15 with no walks in the span of three games in a single postseason. Griffin is making himself some bank as a pending free agent.
Williams was the winner of Game 3 last Thursday, and in an ideal world he's your dude on regular rest for Game 7, but manager Stephen Vogt may not want to risk it. Williams lasted only 70 pitches in Game 3 as he was pulled when his fastball dropped from 99.6 mph in the fourth inning to 95.2 in the fifth, per MLB.com.
But it probably is a mish-mash of guys, led by Tanner Bibee as ideally the main bulk guy but probably following opener Slade Cecconi, who has allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits over two ALCS appearances. Bibee led the Guardians with 33 regular-season starts but was a mediocre 7-15 with a 4.36 ERA and hasn't started since Sept. 26. His lone playoff appearance was a horrible relief appearance in the ALDS vs. the White Sox, allowing two runs in a third of an inning.
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There's no question who it will be for the Rays, and it's another guy who will get paid big money this offseason in free agency â if there is an actual offseason and free agency ahead of a pending lockout â in veteran right-hander Freddy Peralta. After struggling with the Mets and then continuing to do so post-trade to Tampa Bay, he flipped a switch by throwing six shutout innings in Detroit on Aug. 26 and has been ace-worthy since.
Peralta has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than one run, which includes a victory in Game 2 where he threw six shutout innings at the Trop with four hits allowed and six strikeouts. The 30-year-old's 96.9 mph average fastball velocity was 2.6 mph better than his mark from the regular season.
But we aren't done yet. The Rays called upon him Saturday for relief, and Peralta earned a hold with no runs or hits in two-thirds of an inning â the final two outs of the sixth following starter Nick Martinez. Peralta only threw nine pitches, so that's not even equivalent to his usual bullpen routine in between starts and there should be no major limitations in that regard tonight.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Peralta at 5.1 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 1.8 earned runs. Cleveland's Jose Ramirez is 3-for-6 off him with four walks career in the regular season. Ramirez has now reached base in 17 straight playoff games, a franchise record.
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Tampa Bay improved to an astonishing 91-0 this season when leading after eight innings with Sunday's win. Closer Bryan Baker has saved all six wins in these playoffs â a team-record 35 straight converted saves -- and not allowed an earned run. He has pitched the past two but should be available if needed because they weren't super-long innings.
And how can I go against the red-hot Peralta? This franchise is also due a Game 6 playoff win. Tampa Bay is 0-2 in ALCS Game 6 contests and lost its only World Series Game 6 in 2020 against the Dodgers. Yandy Diaz guaranteed a win after Game 5: "It all ends tomorrow. We're going to win tomorrow." Cleveland is 2-2 all-time in its ALCS Game 6 history, dropping the past two. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
