CBS Sports HQ is making its way to NFL training camps -- they are all now open -- and will visit Henderson, Nev., on Wednesday to break down the new-look Las Vegas Raiders. They have a new starting quarterback in 2025 Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and a new head coach in Klint Kubiak.
Both won a championship last season: Mendoza at Indiana and Kubiak as the offensive coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks. Thus, they will become the first rookie starting QB and first rookie head coach duo in NFL history both coming off championship seasons -- that is, when Mendoza wins the job. The Hoosiers averaged 41.6 points last season, third-best in FBS. The Seahawks averaged 28.4 PPG, third-best in the NFL. Las Vegas was last in the league in 2025 in scoring at 14.2 PPG.
I'm assuming that Mendoza will be under center Week 1 at home vs. Miami, with the Raiders opening at -3.5. They might not be bigger favorites all season, as the Dolphins are in an even earlier stage of rebuild than the Silver & Black are.
Right after the draft, FanDuel offered odds on Las Vegas' Week 1 starting QB, and free-agent signee and veteran Kirk Cousins was the favorite then by a fair amount, but you can't bet that prop any longer, and all the books are listing Mendoza season props, so that hints that he should be the opening guy. Although on Tuesday when veterans reported to camp, Kubiak said Cousins will open as the No. 1 for Wednesday's first practice.
"He's the guy, and he deserves it because he's played really good football," Kubiak said. "But I want Fernando Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell to push him." The coach added that Cousins took the majority of the first-team reps during the offseason program and looked "excellent" but that camp would also be a "moving target" as opposed to how many reps each quarterback will have with a particular group.
Mendoza, who just signed his rookie contract last week, could be the seventh straight QB drafted No. 1 overall to start Week 1 as a rookie. As of now, he is a +425 second-favorite behind Arizona tailback Jeremiah Love for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and is given season Over/Under totals of 2,399.5 yards passing and 12.5 touchdown passes.
That yardage total is the lowest on the DraftKings board by far. And those obviously aren't great numbers overall for a 17-game season, but it's probably the various sportsbooks hedging if Cousins does win the Week 1 job. You can't bet Cousins season totals.
Regardless of who wins the job, the Raiders will be the second franchise since 1950 to have a different Week 1 quarterback and head coach in four straight seasons, following the 2020-23 Houston Texans. Kubiak might want to have his resume ready, however, as four straight QBs drafted first overall had their head coach fired during their rookie season: Cam Ward (2025, Titans), Caleb Williams (2024, Bears), Bryce Young (2023, Panthers) and Trevor Lawrence (2021, Jaguars).
Let's finish up with the Raiders' season win total, which is generally either set at 5.5 or 6.5 depending on your sportsbook or preference of price. I recommend taking 6.5 and leaning Under. Why? Six straight signal-callers drafted first overall have failed to win six games. The last who did was Baker Mayfield in 2018 with Cleveland, and he finished right at six.
In fact, the only two QBs taken No. 1 overall who started as a rookie (Carson Palmer did not) and won more than six games were Sam Bradford with seven in 2010 with the Rams and Andrew Luck with 11 in 2012 in Indianapolis. The past three Raiders Week 1 starters â since Derek Carr left -- have combined for a 7-23 mark with 35 TD throws and 36 interceptions in those seasons: Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023, Gardner Minshew in 2024 and Geno Smith last year. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Raiders at 4.7 wins, and I'm definitely going Under 6.5.
However, I will lean Over on Mendoza yards and TD passes, because I believe he does win the job as mentioned or at least gets it very early on. Smith was one of the NFL's worst QBs last year but still managed 3,025 yards and 19 TDs in his 15 games. Mendoza has some good skill-position talent around him, led by tailback Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers.
And the team beefed up the O-line, led by signing Ravens Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum to a record-setting free-agent deal. The roster currently has 30 rookies on it and 16 new veterans, which is crazy. Mendoza at some point will become the first rookie QB to play with a center coming off a Pro Bowl season since Cam Newton in 2011 with Carolina. Newton had a huge first season and was Offensive Rookie of the Year.
