AFC West: Is the Chiefs' dominance in the division coming to an end?

Since its formation as the American Football League's Western Division in 1960, the AFC West has seen each of its four current members enjoy extended stints at the top. The then-San Diego Chargers won four consecutive division titles from 2006-09 after going on three-year runs from 1963-65 and 1979-81.

While calling Oakland home, the Raiders dominated the division for a lengthy period of time, finishing in first place for four- and five-season stretches between 1967-76, with the Kansas City Chiefs interrupting their reign in 1971. The Raiders also had a three-year streak from 2000-02.

The Denver Broncos also had their turn, winning five straight AFC West crowns from 2011-15, the final four coming during the Peyton Manning Era. But since the Hall-of-Fame quarterback rode off into the sunset following a victory in Super Bowl 50, the AFC West has belonged to the Chiefs.

Kansas City's current nine-year tenure atop the division, which is tied for second-longest in NFL history behind the New England Patriots' 11-year streak in the AFC East from 2009-19, began with Alex Smith as the team's starting QB in 2016 and 2017. The Chiefs then traded the veteran to Washington in order to hand the reins to Patrick Mahomes, who has led the team to the AFC West crown every year since taking over in 2018.

Even though Kansas City finished 15-2 last year to set a franchise record for wins while earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC, it felt to many that the bloom might be coming off the rose. Eleven of those victories were one-score decisions, five came as a result of the last play of the game and another on a controversial call in the waning seconds of regulation that went the Chiefs' way.

After defeating the Buffalo Bills in a squeaker in the AFC Championship Game, Kansas City was demolished by the Philadelphia Eagles 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX, and the game was only that close because of a pair of meaningless touchdowns by the Chiefs in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter.

The 2025 season also began with disappointment for Kansas City as it dropped a 27-21 decision to the Los Angeles Chargers in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The Chiefs never led in the contest and were unable to get the ball back into Mahomes' hands after a field goal with 2:34 remaining drew them within six points.

That could be a sign that, unlike last year, things aren't going to go the Chiefs' way on a seemingly regular basis. Mahomes suggested as much after the setback.

"I think we learned a valuable lesson today. We have to be better from the get-go," he told reporters. "We can't just expect to come back and win every single game. Teams are too good in this league, so this will be a big lesson for us."

With that loss, the Chiefs find themselves in a very unfamiliar position -- last place in the AFC West, as the Raiders and Broncos joined the Chargers by posting season-opening victories. And things could become precarious in a hurry for the club as they host the Eagles for a Super Bowl rematch in Week 2 and, after visiting the New York Giants, welcome the Baltimore Ravens to Arrowhead Stadium in Week 4.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, a triumph over the Eagles is of great importance for the Chiefs' hopes of winning a 10th consecutive AFC West title. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, currently has Kansas City capturing the division crown in 23.7% of its simulations, but that number would drop to 17.2% with a loss on Sunday.

The model says a win would increase the Chiefs' chances to 28.5%, but Week 2 triumphs by the Broncos and Chargers over the Indianapolis Colts and Raiders, respectively, would elevate their outlooks as well.

In addition, the model believes Kansas City's hopes of an 11th straight postseason appearance would take a major hit with a negative outcome against Philadelphia.

The thought that the Chiefs' era of supremacy is coming to a close is one that must be considered. Whether it's that they just aren't who they used to be or the rest of the AFC West finally is catching up to them, or a combination of both, there definitely is cause for concern when it comes to seeing Kansas City play football deep into January -- not to mention in Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.