Upset alert in NFL Week 11? Why these favorites could fall, including Jalen Hurts and the Eagles

For the second week in a row, we've been dialed in on identifying some of the top upsets on the NFL slate. In Week 10, we correctly pegged the Packers, Buccaneers, and Browns as favorites on upset alert, and that came to fruition when all three of those clubs lost. That's the second consecutive week we've gone 3-for-5, as our only losses in Week 10 were the Chargers fending off Pittsburgh and the Ravens edging out the Vikings. Not a perfect 5-0 sweep, but our finger is on the pulse. 

As we look forward to Week 11, there are several compelling games, including nine division matchups and six games currently within a field-goal spread. That leaves a lot of room for chaos, and we're here to help sift through the madness and back the right clubs.

With that, let's dive into this week's basket of favorites who could be on upset alert.  

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $ in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

• When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Seahawks ML odds: +138

This is the heavyweight matchup we're all waiting for in Week 11. The Seahawks and Rams are tied atop the NFC West at 7-2, and this game could very well shape the division race for the rest of the season. L.A. is getting the home-field nod as the favorite and laying 3 points, but Seattle is absolutely capable of heading into SoFi Stadium and pulling out a win. 

The Seahawks have already shown they can go on the road and win, owning a 4-0 straight-up and against-the-spread record away from Lumen Field this year. They boast the third-best scoring offense in the NFL this season (30.6 points per game), and that unit will look to make a rare dent in a Rams defense that's the second-best scoring unit in the league (17.0 points per game allowed). 

This should be much closer than the field goal spread indicates, and it wouldn't be a surprise if Seattle wins outright. 

Pete Prisco's Week 11 NFL picks: Seahawks upset Rams in NFC West showdown; Chiefs get a must-win vs. Broncos

Pete Prisco

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Lions ML odds: +124

Philly won a hard-nosed game against the Packers on Monday and now has a quick turnaround to face an equally tough NFC North foe in the Lions. The new-look Eagles defense with Jaelan Phillips looked great against Green Bay, but that was against a unit still finding its way without star tight end Tucker Kraft. It also didn't have first-round rookie wideout Matthew Golden, while trusted receiver Romeo Doubs left due to injury. 

Facing a loaded Lions offense will be a much tougher task, with Detroit averaging 31.4 points per game (second-highest in the NFL). The Lions also have a league-best 13-2 record in prime-time games over the last four years, so they rise to the occasion in these settings. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is still clunky, which could be due to Saquon Barkley not being as efficient as he was in 2024. Coming into Week 11, the Eagles running back is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. The Lions run defense is allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (top 10 in the NFL), so yards could be tough to come by. 

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

• When: 9:30 a.m. ET | Where: Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
• TV: NFL Network | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Commanders ML odds: +132

This is a potential letdown spot for Miami, which just pulled off a stunning upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. Despite the win, this is a club still going nowhere fast, and now it has to travel to Spain to take on the Commanders. 

Without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, Washington is no Goliath, but I'm curious to see how much this defense will change now that head coach Dan Quinn is calling plays. This unit has struggled mightily this season, but there's the possibility of them receiving a spark under Quinn's tutelage. 

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is a backup quarterback capable of leading an upset, particularly against a Miami defense that allows 5.9 yards per play (fourth-highest in the NFL) and 25.6 points per game (bottom 10 in the NFL). 

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

• When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Cardinals ML odds: +128

Jacoby Brissett has thrown for at least 250 yards and two passing touchdowns in all four of his starts this season. His 279.5 passing yards per game are the second-best of any quarterback from Week 6 to Week 10, and the offense is averaging 24.8 points per game with him at the helm. 

We point that out because Brissett gets a tasty matchup against a banged-up 49ers defense. Over the last seven games, San Francisco surrendered 25.9 points per game and is 3-4 over that stretch. If that trend continues in Week 11, Arizona should be able to move the ball effectively.

On the other side, how much rust will Brock Purdy have if he makes his long-awaited return, and will he be able to shake it off fast enough to keep pace?

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Bengals ML odds: +190

Alarm bells should be going off in Pittsburgh after the offense -- and specifically Aaron Rodgers -- looked rough in Week 10. 

Yes, the Chargers defense is among the best in the NFL, and the Bengals are arguably the worst, but what if Sunday night's crack in the armor was more than just a tough matchup for Rodgers? If this is a sign that Pittsburgh may be fading as the second half of the season begins, Cincinnati could be live in spite of its poor defense. 

Speaking of poor defense, let's not overlook Pittsburgh's unit either. The club has lost three of its last four games and is allowing 28.3 points per game over that stretch. Joe Flacco is capable of lighting up poor defenses with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. In fact, he posted 33 points against this very defense back in Week 7. 

Cincinnati is also well-rested after being on the bye in Week 10, giving them plenty of time to prepare.