Who will win the NFC? Why Week 11 matchups will redefine the conference race for these four contenders

The NFL is full of parity and surprises, as usual, this season. The AFC, in particular, has four division leaders that did not win their division last year. I don't expect that to keep up, though. The Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are still the teams to beat in that conference until we see otherwise in January. 

The NFC is a different story, though. While Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have owned the AFC for the last two decades, we haven't seen a repeat NFC champion since the Seahawks in 2014. It looks like that trend will continue this year with Philadelphia looking vulnerable. 

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Of course, there's still a lot of football to be played and we'll get a lot more info on the pecking order in the NFC on Sunday when the top four teams in the conference (at least by NFC title odds) face each other. The 7-2 Seahawks host the 7-2 Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (7-2) host the Lions (6-3).

With the latest odds provided by FanDuel, here's a case for each of those four teams to win the NFC and who I see as the actual favorite.

Eagles (+290)

Case for: Trade acquisitions Jaelan Phillips and Michael Carter II filling needs

The Eagles may be the NFC favorites, but they don't look like it. A win is a win, but Monday at Lambeau Field was as ugly as it gets. Still, there were definitely positive signs for the defense, and if there's a case to be made that this team is the best in the NFC, it's because of the trades they made to fill holes on defense. 

Jaelan Phillips is a difference maker when healthy and has proved he might be just what Philadelphia needed after losing Josh Sweat in free agency this offseason. Phillips had a career-high eight pressures on Monday and is third in the NFL in pressure rate this season (19%). The Eagles' pass rush is coming around across the board. Nolan Smith returned from missing a chunk of time and Brandon Graham came out of retirement. Philadelphia posted a season-high pressure rate (49%) and a season-low blitz rate (10%) on Monday, exactly the combination of pressure without blitzing that helped them win the Super Bowl. 

Case against: No offensive identity. Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown are struggling

The defense is heading in the right direction, but the offense only scored 10 points coming out of a bye, and A.J. Brown is once again airing his dirty laundry. He didn't have a catch in the second half of Monday's win, his fifth half without a catch this season. He and Saquon Barkley have combined for just three 100-yard rushing or receiving games this season after they had 16 last year. The up-and-down offense is one reason why the Eagles have been outgained by 222 total yards this season after they had outgained teams by 898 yards through nine games last season. This isn't the dominant Eagles team we saw last year, and if they don't repeat as NFC champions, it will be largely due to the offense. There's still time to flip the switch, as we've seen the Chiefs do in the past, so we'll see if they rebound on Sunday night against Detroit.

Rams (+380)

Case for: Best teams on both sides of ball

The Rams are clicking on all cylinders right now. Matthew Stafford is on the heater of a lifetime (20 touchdown passes, zero interceptions in the last six games). Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are a dynamic duo. The big men are dominating in the trenches. Plus, Nate Landman is a playmaker on defense. 

This is the best team in the NFC, and probably the best in the NFL, due to all of the above. They are the only team that ranks in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season (as measured by EPA per game). As the chart below illustrates, no one is in their territory in terms of effectiveness on both sides of the ball. The only other teams in the last 10 seasons to rank top five in the aforementioned categories are the 2019 Ravens and the 2022 49ers.

They've also unlocked something new on offense that could take them to new heights. They are using 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) over 40% of the time over the last three games. A stretch that began with Puka Nacua missing a game. They have been facing a lot more base defense and taking advantage of it. The Rams are averaging 3.5 points per drive in this stretch, compared to 2.2 in their first six games. 

I also like how Davante Adams is just abusing defensive backs in the red zone lately. He's been targeted six times in the end zone in the last three games and caught all six passes (for touchdowns). He's a matchup nightmare, which adds another element to a dangerous offense.

Case against: 0-3 vs. Eagles since Week 12 of 2024

I don't have many bad things to say about the Rams except that they still need to prove they can beat the Eagles. They are 0-3 vs. Philadelphia in the last calendar year and 13-2 vs. everyone else. They are getting closer, though! They put up a heck of a fight in a snowstorm in Philadelphia last year and could have easily beaten them earlier this season if not for two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter. The Rams have been the worst kicking team in the NFL this year, which could be their Achilles heel.

Lions (+440)

Case for: Offense has juice with Dan Campbell calling plays

The Lions currently have the third-best odds to win the NFC and have a chance to make a statement by winning a tough road game against the defending champions on Sunday night. I'm not putting too much stock into the Week 10 result of destroying the Commanders' horrible defense after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. But I am intrigued by what I'm seeing under the hood. They posted season-highs in pre-snap motion (66%) and play-action usage (27%) in Week 10 while also using three-wide receiver sets more often. Spreading out the defense and getting more creative seems like a Ben Johnson trait that could serve them well going forward. 

Case against: Can't trust Jared Goff or the defense

Aidan Hutchinson is also back with a vengeance, which means maybe they could avoid the embarrassment that was last year's one-and-done in the playoffs vs. the Commanders. I trust the defense a little bit more (although they are vulnerable at cornerback), but I don't trust Jared Goff that much. He was the weak link in their last two playoff losses, particularly under pressure. He was 3-of-13 for 26 yards passing under pressure vs. the 49ers in the 2023 NFC title game loss, including critical misses in the second half. Plus, three of his four turnovers in the playoff loss to the Commanders came under pressure.

Seahawks (+470)

Case for: Historic passing attack

The Seahawks have been one of the best stories of the season. Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are putting up historic numbers in their first season as teammates and in Klint Kubiak's first year as the Seahawks' offensive coordinator. Darnold is averaging the most yards per attempt (9.92) by any quarterback in 71 years (since 1954, when Norm Van Brocklin achieved the same mark), as he's been connecting on deep balls with Smith-Njigba. 

Seattle has a very unique offensive philosophy. They are throwing the ball at the lowest rate in the league (47% of plays), but they are leading the NFL in yards per attempt. We haven't seen a team pass this infrequently (less than half the time) but efficiently (at least 9.5 yards per attempt) since Dan Marino's record-breaking season for the 1984 Dolphins. It's really rare and you would think they would be passing all the time with this type of efficiency. It's counterintuitive, as the chart below shows, but hey, it's working.

Maybe it's taking pressure off Darnold. That's speculation. They are definitely taking advantage of good matchups, though. The Seahawks are using at least two tight ends on nearly half their plays this year and are facing at least eight defenders in the box at one of the highest rates in the league. That explains the deep shots Darnold has been able to hit. 

You can't overlook the defense either. The Seahawks and Rams are the only two teams that rank in the top five in both scoring offense and defense this season. Seattle is a handful in the trenches just like the Rams, and they have a much-improved defense under head coach Mike McDonald. They've been running teams out of the building. They have the best first-half points per game differential (+11.4) by any team since the 2007 Patriots. 

Case against: Can't trust Sam Darnold

Yeah, Seattle has been that dominant, but like the Lions, does anyone really trust the quarterback in January? We haven't seen the Seahawks tested much this year. They've spent just one minute and 34 seconds tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, the fewest by any team through nine games in 20 years (2005 Colts). Darnold had a big throw to JSN to set up a game-winning field goal vs. the Cardinals earlier this year, but he came up short in Seattle's two other close finishes. Nick Bosa strip sacked him in Week 1 while Seattle was driving in the red zone to win the game. Plus, he threw a pick that led to the game-winning field goal in the track meet against Baker Mayfield and Tampa, which accounts for the Seahawks' other loss. Same old Darnold, right? He has 26 turnovers in the last two seasons, second most in the league behind only Geno Smith. 

The one big difference this year is his offensive line. He was pressured 49 times in his last two games with the Vikings last year behind a banged-up o-line. He still held onto the ball too long and missed throws in those two embarrassing losses, but the offensive line was somewhat of a factor. The Seahawks have been an upgrade so far. They've allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, and the interior of their line is no longer as much of a liability with the addition of first-round pick Grey Zabel. 

Of course, things change in a heartbeat in the NFL and we could be singing a completely different tune after Sunday's games. For now, though, I like the Rams in the NFC as long as Stafford stays healthy.