Cowboys vs. Giants prediction: Will Cowboys be able to shut down New York's biggest strength

FRISCO, Texas -- How critical is it for the New York Giants (0-1) and the Dallas Cowboys (0-1) to avoid an 0-2 hole when the two NFC East rivals go toe to toe at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon in Week 2? 

Going back to 1990, just 25.1% of teams to start 0-1 have reached the playoffs. That rate dips exponentially if a team falls to 0-2 out of the gate, 12.2% of the time to be exact. 

Fortunately for the Cowboys and unfortunately for the Giants, Dallas Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott is back and healthy after missing the second meeting in 2024 between those two squads after tearing his hamstring in Week 9 last season at the Atlanta Falcons. Prescott has won 13 consecutive starts against the Giants, which is tied for the second-longest streak by a quarterback against a single opponent since 1950. Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who joined the organization as a consultant in 2022 before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2023 and then being promoted to head coach this year, said it was "hard" to put his finger on why Prescott experiences so much success against New York. Prescott himself just wants to keep the streak alive.  

"I want to keep it going, period. I want to do everything I can. I know these guys are in this locker room just to keep that going," Prescott said on Thursday. "It's hard to get streaks in the National Football League and a streak like that, sure it's a selfish streak in a sense, but not necessarily when you think about all the guys that it takes to win. It's not just me, and I want to keep that going." 

* Active streak

For a preview of the Cowboys' first duel of the new season with the Giants, how to watch these NFC East rivals go to blows and what to expect on both sides of the ball, enjoy our preview. 

Where to watch Cowboys vs. Giants live

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 14 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: Fox | Stream: : Fubo -- try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Cowboys -4.5; O/U 44.5 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

When the Giants have the ball

New York will be stretched thin in an effort to protect 36-year-old quarterback Russell Wilson on Sunday. Left tackle Andrew Thomas (foot) will likely miss his second consecutive game in Week 2 after being listed as doubtful Friday afternoon. 

That's bad news for the 2025 version of Wilson fresh off his worst Week 1 start: he completed only 17 of his 37 throws for 168 yards for a 59.3 passer rating, his lowest in 13 career Week 1 starts. Even more alarming for New York is that Wilson couldn't rely on his greatest strength, throwing outside the pocket, in the team's 21-6 road loss at the Washington Commanders in Week 1. Wilson did not complete any of his seven passes outside the pocket in Week 1, his worst 0-fer game throwing outside the pocket since at least 2017, per CBS Sports Research.

It appears that all the sacks Wilson absorbed have begun to catch up with him in 2025. No one took more sacks in their first 13 NFL seasons than Wilson (560). Pittsburgh Steelers future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger, another passer most known for his improvisational skills, took over 100 fewer sacks than Wilson (456) in his first 13 seasons, and he's the next-closest player to Wilson in terms of sacks in a player's first 13 years in the league. The beating the 5-foot-11, 206-pound quarterback's body has taken is simply unprecedented.

However, the Giants will be relying on second-year Pro Bowl wide receiver Malik Nabers to get open quick enough for Wilson to evade Dallas' pass rush. Nabers does have at least five catches in 11 consecutive games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. Despite clearly missing Micah Parsons, Dallas did generate the fifth-highest quarterback pressure rate, 42.4%, in Week 1 at the Super Bowl LIX champion Philadelphia Eagles. The problem without Parsons was only being able to wrap up Eagles Super Bowl LIX MVP quarterback Jalen Hurts for one sack. 

That's one of the reasons why new Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus ran man coverage on just 3.2% of Dallas' defensive plays in Week 1 -- the lowest man coverage rate of any defense in the entire league. That's a seismic adjustment from when current Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn ran the Dallas defense from 2021 to 2023: Quinn's Cowboys played man coverage on 33.8% of their plays, the third-highest rate in the NFL across those three seasons. The shift worked in Week 1: the Eagles' 144 net passing yards ranked as the seventh-fewest in the NFL in Week 1, and Philadelphia's explosive wide receiver tandem of A.J. Brown (one catch on one target for 8 yards) and DeVonta Smith (three catches on three targets for 16 yards) were limited to a quiet evening.

Another reason for the heavy zone coverage is because Cowboys two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) is still working his way back from a surgery he had done in January. He played in 26 of the Cowboys' 62 defensive snaps (64.5%) in their  24-20 Week 1 loss at the Eagles, and he wasn't targeted on his 20 coverage snaps, per TruMedia.

"In terms of Trevon Diggs, looking good. He's done a really good job of progressing," Eberflus said on Thursday. "He's been really dialed in here the last couple weeks, and he's looking to get some more reps this week. We'll see how it goes today and through the rest of the week as well. ... I think he'll get more snaps."  

"Still working," Diggs said when asked about his snap counts. "Just a little bit more than last week. I feel like it's best and the smartest and the safest thing to do. I feel like increasing it a couple more plays and just working my way back slowly."    

When the Cowboys have the ball

Dallas will certainly allow Prescott to let it rip against the Giants with CeeDee Lamb and now George Pickens as a part of their arsenal. Prescott's 9.7 air yards per pass attempt in Week 1 were the sixth-most in the NFL. 

"It's a mutual understanding, and the biggest thing is he [Schottenheimer] says something that we've said around here for a long time: 'a shot called doesn't mean a shot taken.' So them calling the plays and me just playing the play allows him to be aggressive right? Allows the plays to come in aggressive, and if it's not there, I'm not going to take that chance," Prescott said. "But with the opportunity with the guys we've got outside, the speed, when it's there, I'm going to let it go."

Prescott targeted Lamb on 13 of his 34 passes, meaning 39.4% of his throws went to No. 88 -- the fifth-highest team target percentage in the entire league in Week 1. Lamb corralled seven of them for 110 yards, but the stat-stuffing performance turned sour when the clock hit zero: Lamb had four drops, a career-high and the most in a game by any NFL player since 2021, and two of them came on Dallas' final drive. A catch on either of those plays, a second-down drop on a post route down the right sideline and a fourth-down drop on a vertical route down the left sideline, could have been the difference in what was a 24-20 defeat. That's why Lamb struggled to sleep all weekend. 

"Us as a team, we got to just play right and play together and make the routine plays, make the plays that come to us, and I'm speaking for myself as well," Lamb said Thursday. "The opportunity that presented itself, obviously, I fell short of it a couple of times. I know I'll be prepared for that moment next time. ... I would rather nobody else than myself in those situations. I came up short once. We'll see the rest."  

However, the Cowboys will have to deal with blocking arguably the most talented defensive line in football with New York's collection of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns, former top-five pick edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and 2025 third overall pick edge rusher Abdul Carter. Dallas' front five performed well against the Eagles, sans Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jalen Carter: they were one of three teams to not allow a sack in Week 1. That battle in the trenches will go a long way in determining Sunday's outcome. 

Giants vs. Cowboys prediction, pick

New York's pass rush is fierce, but it will struggle to really find spots to pin their ears back given the issues with the offensive line and Wilson. That will lead to the Cowboys having a significant edge in the time of possession battle, which will wear the Giants' greatest strength out. Prescott won't have a problem conducting Dallas' offenses up and down the field on Sunday after getting loose against the Eagles in Week 1: the Cowboys roll to their first win under head coach Brian Schottenheimer on Sunday. 

Pick: Cowboys 31, Giants 17 | Cowboys -4.5