Vikings vs. Chargers: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 8's Thursday Night Football matchup

Another week, another shocking result for a Thursday Night Football divisional game. I love it when I don't have to change the opening line to last week's story all because Joe Flacco decided to morph into Joe Montana against the Steelers on a Thursday night in Cincinnati. 

We finally step out of the divisional matchup realm for the first time in a few weeks, but we get two teams in desperate need of a win. The Chargers are reeling, having lost four straight, and the Vikings have to be looking up at the NFC North standings and hoping someone can upset Green Bay or Detroit to let them hang around. 

Neither team should panic, but we're just about at the halfway point of the season depending on when byes fall. These games are massive with very little time to prepare. 

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If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Vikings vs. Chargers game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Vikings +3.5 at Chargers

This line is kind of surprising. That's my biggest concern, honestly: why are the Vikings catching a full field goal and a hook on a short week against a Chargers team that is completely decimated? 

Maybe you can make the case if we get one in and one out with the young tackles for each team -- Joe Alt for the Chargers and Christian Darrisaw for the Vikings, respectively -- that the Chargers have a pretty significant advantage at a massively important position. Los Angeles is desperate and Alt, who is questionable, said he plans to play. But even if he's out there, it's doubtful he'll be operating at 100%. 

Regardless, the defense is the big key here for me with Minnesota. It's not just Carson Wentz's perfect record on Thursday Night Football! The Vikings should be able to run the ball effectively and set up play action to their elite receivers. Minnesota was a couple of fluky plays away from beating the Eagles last week. 

And while you can argue Los Angeles with Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh aren't likely to lose three games in a row -- and I wouldn't argue with you there -- the Chargers are also allowing 27+ points per game over the last three weeks, only the second time that's happened in Harbaugh's career as an NFL coach. 

He'll fix the defense and the Chargers should end up being a playoff team or right in the mix, but they're pretty broken against the run right now. I trust Kevin O'Connell to lean into such a weakness and run the football effectively enough to keep this game close. 

You can bet on the Vikings to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win:

Vikings vs. Chargers player props

Oronde Gadsen Over 4.5 receptions

We're not going to be scared of a little steam here on Gadsen after his monster game last week. Instead, we're going to lean into a narrative about his playing time and performance that's been building all season around the rookie hybrid tight end out of Syracuse.

The Chargers coaching staff's been hyping Gadsen up and despite having a plethora of weapons, it's clear Justin Herbert trusts him. 

Most of the market has this prop at 3.5 with the Over quite heavily juiced. Getting Over 4.5 at plus money when he should easily clear this number is tantalizing. Herbert should look to get the ball out quickly against a blitz-heavy Minnesota defense, setting up plenty of targets for Gadsen.

Carson Wentz anytime INT 

Yes, I know I'm backing Minnesota and this flies in the face of that. But does it? In a perfect world, Wentz gets to play ball control and just take play-action shots. It's rarely a perfect world, especially in primetime with a small spread on the road. 

More than likely, Wentz will be forced to play a little hero ball in this game at some point and when he does that, he's more than capable of forcing the ball into coverage or throwing down the field aggressively and ending up with the ball in the hands of a Chargers defender.  ed

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

Jordan Mason +115

I feel like I've highlighted this spot roughly 400 times this week, but let's reiterate what I said in my "Bet It Now" column on Tuesday: the Chargers have the worst run defense in the league over the last three weeks, giving up 5.8 yards per carry to their opponents. They've also given up an absurd seven touchdowns to running backs over the last three weeks, making Mason a prime candidate to find pay dirt on Thursday night. 

Aaron Jones returning to practice certainly has kept this number in check, as I think Mason should be closer to -120 to score given the matchup and his usage. I'm not sure Jones is going to see a ton of high-value touches, however, with him coming off an injury and not likely to be banging around by the goal line. Jones is listed as questionable, so it's not even a given he's playing this week. 

If Jones doesn't go in this game, we should see this number dip even further (it was around +125 early in the week) with Mason likely to see most of the carries in a plush matchup. 

Jordan Addison +220

This is strictly a value play. Addison is flying under the radar becasue of his suspension, so he's lower than Gadsen when it comes to ATD markets. That's kind of silly -- if the Vikings are underdogs here, they should be throwing more. 

Addison has -- and I did a double take here -- 26 targets in the three games since he's returned from suspension. And that includes a first half benching for missing a London walkthrough. 

This is a prime regression spot and maybe the best touchdown value on the board.