Packers vs. Lions prediction: Can Detroit defend home turf or will Green Bay pull off the Thanksgiving upset?

In the first of three Thanksgiving day games, the Detroit Lions play host to the division rival Green Bay Packers. 

Detroit is coming off a thrilling, too-close-for-comfort overtime win over the Giants, which improved its record to 7-4 on the season. The Lions remain one game back of the Bears (yes, really) for first place in the NFC North, and they'll also have revenge on their minds for this game, as the Packers destroyed them back in Week 1. The game is part of a tough three-week stretch for the Lions, who play the Cowboys and Rams in the two games following this one.

Green Bay also captured a win last week, improving to 7-3-1 with a comfortable victory over the Vikings. Green Bay has won back-to-back games since being somewhat embarrassed in games against the Panthers and Eagles a few weeks ago, and will surely be looking to lay the hammer down on the Lions here and knock them even further back in the division race. The Packers have their own chance to stake claim to the division down the stretch, with games against Detroit and Minnesota and two against Chicago.

Will the Packers make it three wins in a row, or will the Lions finally stack back-to-back victories for the first time since early October? We'll find out soon enough. But before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.

Where to watch Lions vs. Packers live

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: Fox | Stream: Fubo (try for free) 
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Lions -2.5, O/U 48.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet Packers vs. Lions and other NFL Week 13 games at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass.

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Key storylines

• Revenge game. The Packers absolutely destroyed the Lions back in Week 1. Their defensive front totally dominated the game to the point that the Lions were essentially unable to function offensively. Micah Parsons played a limited role after sitting out for most of the offseason program prior to his trade to Green Bay, but he was phenomenal in his limited snaps. Players like Lukas Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt and more showed out, and the secondary was extremely sticky in coverage throughout the game. The Lions will surely want to prove that the game was an aberration, and they have shown throughout this season that they can still be as explosive as any team in the league when they are on their game.
• NFC North standings. Chicago has surged into first place in the division on the strength of a four-game winning streak, but both Green Bay and Detroit are right behind the Bears. Chicago sits at 8-3, but the Packers are 7-3-1 and the Lions are 7-4. The Packers currently own the tiebreaker over the Lions thanks to their head-to-head victory, but Detroit can even that up with a win. The Lions also own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bears, and don't play them again until the final week of the season. The Packers have yet to play against Chicago, and have two games coming up against the Bears in Weeks 14 and 16. This round robin of games will go a long way toward determining the NFC North champion.
• Injuries galore. Both teams are incredibly banged up coming into this game, with a spate of injuries affecting each team. Both teams will be without their star tight end, as Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta remain on injured reserve. And then on Monday's injury report, an incredible 31 players were listed. That includes Packers No. 1 cornerback Keisean Nixon, pass-rusher Lukas Van Ness and interior defensive lineman Karl Brooks, along with Lions center Graham Glasgow and safety Kerby Joseph, none of whom practiced in any capacity. (Joseph is not expected to play, per Dan Campbell.) The Packers could get back one or both of Josh Jacobs and Jayden Reed, who each got in limited sessions on Monday, as did Matthew Golden. Marcus Davenport, meanwhile, could return for Detroit, but the Lions limited a whole bunch of other players (including most of their offensive line, along with Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold) on Monday as well. 
• Thanksgiving history. This will be the 23rd all-time meeting between the Lions and Packers on Thanksgiving, the most such matchups in NFL history. (They played every year from 1951 through 1963.) The Lions are 12-9-1 in the Thanksgiving day series against Green Bay despite being just 38-45-2 all time. This will be Green Bay's 39th time playing on Thanksgiving overall, and the Packers are 16-20-2 in those contests. The last time these two teams played on Thanksgiving was actually two years ago, with the Packers winning 29-22.

Prediction

Detroit is a different team on the fast track at Ford Field than it is outdoors. That game back in Week 1 was a long time ago, and it was played at Lambeau Field. The Lions simply have more explosive playmakers on offense than do the Packers, and I therefore trust them to put up more points -- even against this Green Bay defense. 

Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 20