NFL Week 6 best bets: Expert advises whether you should jump on these NFL picks now or later

Maybe we should stick to just touchdowns in this NFL betting column given how things went last week. The number didn't move too much on De'Von Achane, but he still scored. And Christian McCaffrey got home easy as well, and early. Week 5 was chaos and we should expect more of the same moving forward, but I wouldn't bank on multiple upsets in Week 6. 

Click here to bet on NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet wins:

Instead, let's focus on some lines that are going to be stale by mid week, including the Bengals total and a touchdown prop that should be roughly -115 given the matchup. 

Bet Week 5 at BetMGM, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if their first football bet doesn't win:

Bet it now: Bengals team total Under 14.5

If you wanted to bet anything Bengals related early today, you had your life thrown into a hurricane when Cincy announced they were acquiring Joe Flacco in the super-rare intra-division swap of a quarterback between bitter rivals. Just kidding: nothing really changed when the Bengals acquired the veteran, although the line did drop a half point from -14.5 to -14 with the announcement of Flacco switching NFL Ohio allegiences. 

What didn't move was the Bengals team total, which is still sitting at 14.5 and, in my opinion, a better way to attack this game. The Packers gave up 40 points the week before their bye to the Cowboys, but that was a major anomaly for their season: prior to that matchup, in which Dak Prescott played basically perfect football, the Packers held the Lions to 13 points, the Commanders to 18 points (including a garbage-time touchdown) and the Browns (with Joe Flacco at quarterback!) to 13.  

Green Bay was previously crowned one of the best teams in all of football, and we've seen them dominate good offenses and play at a high level. The Bengals are not, even with Flacco replacing Jake Browning, a good offense. And we can't be 100% sure Flacco will step in right away, although we can't rule it out as he's played the Packers defense already and given the urgency Cincy faces in trying to stay involved in the AFC North. 

The Packers are coming off a bye, should be well rested, won't overlook a bad AFC North team led by Flacco at quarterback after dropping the ball completely against the Browns, and aren't facing a team with any semblance of defense either. 

Cincy can't stop anyone -- except, ironically, Flacco and the Browns -- having given up 27 points or more to every single team they've played except for Cleveland. The Packers should be able to move the ball with ease in the passing game and then lean heavily on Josh Jacobs to chew up clock. Green Bay ranks 23rd in amount of time per play, sitting north of 30 seconds. If they get a lead, they're squatting on the ball and melting the clock, forcing Flacco and/or Browning to be perfect on offense. Good luck with that behind the Bengals' offensive line! 

Bet it Now: A.J. Brown longest reception Over 22.5 yards

Brown's usage this season has been horrendous for Philadelphia, no question about it. He's averaging fewer than 11 yards per catch on the year, but we're getting a rare "Delayed Squeaky Wheel Game" where Brown blows up without Patrick Surtain in coverage and against a questionable secondary for New York. I don't know if this line is going to shoot up, but I want to get a reasonable number early before it does. 

Bet it now: Jaguars -1.5

I'm jumping on this after Jacksonville's Monday Night Football triumph, but the Jags should be favored by 3 points or more here, in my opinion. Seattle is a good team and has some weird away splits that are concerning. Jacksonville won't run out too far because of the short week. But the Jags might be good, no kidding. This game should be low-scoring and I love the Jaguars to find a way to win a close win and keep pushing for the top AFC seed.

Bet it now: Tetairoa McMillan anytime touchdown scorer (+155)

Bryce Young's favorite weapon is making some plays and now he gets to feast on a horrendous pass defense at home. This is a no-brainer bet. McMillan hasn't scored, but he's gotten at least eight targets in every game.