NFL Week 3 picks: Jets, Browns among underdogs worth backing
NFL betting expert Jeff Hochman explains which winless underdogs are worth backing on the spread in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season
Teams that find themselves 0-2 to start the season have shown remarkable value when positioned as underdogs for Week 3, as well as throughout the season as long as they remain winless and are getting points. Since 2010, this NFL betting strategy of backing winless teams that are +3.5 or higher has posted an impressive record of 36 wins and 20 losses, good for a winning percentage of 64.2%. My theory on the system's profitability is as follows: these winless underdogs are getting inflated lines due to the market not wanting to back them as much. This presents a unique opportunity for savvy bettors to exploit potentially inflated odds.
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Here's a look at this season's Week 3 ATS underdogs who are 0-2 on the season, and how confident I am on a 1-5 scale in their ability to keep this NFL betting trend going. And click here to check out another notable NFL betting strategy at SportsLine.
Week 3 ATS underdogs who are winless on the season
New York Jets +7
Confidence: 5
The New York Jets want to avoid a 0-3 start and desperately need a victory to salvage their season. Head coach Aaron Glenn expressed significant frustration after the Bills' loss, stating, "It's not OK to lose like that," suggesting the team will respond more urgently. Playing on underdogs after getting called out by their head coach has always been a favorite spot of mine. While Justin Fields has already been ruled out with a concussion, this apparent disadvantage may benefit the Jets from a betting perspective. Tyrod Taylor demonstrated competence when he entered the game, completing 7 of 11 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown in garbage time.
Tampa Bay's home-field advantage has been more about routine and familiarity than intimidating opponents. Since 2008, Tampa Bay's best home record has been 4-4 in 2010, and they have struggled to establish the dominant home presence that characterized their Super Bowl-winning season. The Buccaneers' home ATS performance from 2018 to 2024 is 27-32-3 (45.8%). Tampa Bay's all-time home ATS record stands at 167-180-14 (45.8%), indicating that this recent poor performance at home is consistent with their historical struggles in covering spreads. They have one day less to prepare and recover from playing on MNF.
Cleveland Browns +8.5
Confidence: 4
Green Bay's strong start (2-0 with wins over Detroit and Washington), coupled with Cleveland's 0-2 record and a poor showing versus Baltimore, has pushed the market toward a high spread, with the Packers favored by 8.5 pointsâthe second largest in Week 3. However, betting models and analytics caution against overvaluing early-week blowouts, as lines often inflate after public overreaction. The Packers may score early, but conservative play calls and the Browns' ability to slow the game could keep things within two scores. Notably, Green Bay was favored by a touchdown or more only twice late last seasonâsplit results (one big win, one narrow loss). I make the game Cleveland +7.
New Orleans Saints +7.5
Confidence: 4
The Saints enter Week 3 with one of the NFL's top defenses, allowing just 17.5 points per game, albeit a small sample size. With the new addition of Justin Reid, their pass rush creates pressure on 34% of dropbacks, and they rank in the top 10 for third-down defense, allowing a 34% conversion rate. Although Seattle scored 31 points in Week 2, their offense remains a work in progress under coordinator Klint Kubiak. Inconsistent execution on third downs (6-of-14 conversions) and a red zone touchdown ranking of 23rd (50%) indicate difficulties converting drives into guaranteed scores. Sam Darnold has faced pressure on 28% of dropbacks, leading to two interceptions over two games. Expect a low-scoring affair.
Seattle wants to control the clock with Kenneth Walker III, but New Orleans' front seven has shown improvement against the run, moving from 28th in rushing yards allowed last season to 16th this year. If Spencer Rattler provides competent QB play (90.7 QB rating through Week 2), the Saints should remain within one score.
