dak-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and there are some very intriguing games on tap like divisional clashes between the Vikings and Packers and Eagles and Cowboys and much more. Which teams are worth including in NFL parlays this week?

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 12, you need to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has to say. He's put together two money line parlays for Week 12, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 12 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach typically focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

In Week 12, NFL betting chalk went a dominating 11-4. NFL betting favorites have won 114 out of 163 games in the first 11 weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 69.9%. This figure is slightly below last year's mark of 71.8%. What does this mean for Week 12? Will the favorites continue to roll? Take a look at Jeff's top money line parlays featuring favorites and underdogs.

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings

This is a battle of two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota has dropped four of its last five games, while the Packers have won four of their previous six. While the Vikings have a winning road record (3-2), Minnesota's offensive line has been exposed on the road, and the combination of crowd noise and communication challenges typically exacerbates their pre-snap penalty problems. They rank 26th in penalties and penalty yards per game. That's not an ideal situation for a dome team playing in a hostile outdoor environment in Green Bay. I expect a focused Packers team who were swept by the Vikings last season for the first time since 2020-21.

While Josh Jacobs' status remains questionable due to a knee contusion suffered in Week 11, coach Matt LaFleur indicated the injury requires no surgery and Jacobs could potentially play. Even if Jacobs sits, backup Emanuel Wilson has averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 53 carries with consistent production. I am comfortable if he starts, making him a potential sleeper in daily fantasy football.

The Packers own a +0.8 sack differential while the Vikings are -0.8 through the first 11 weeks. Net yards per play favors the home team (+0.97 vs. -0.40). These two metrics have always been strong predictors of which teams will win straight up. The last time Green Bay was favored by 6.5 points in this matchup was in January 2021, and the Packers cruised to a 37-10 victory. J.J. McCarthy's first start in Green Bay is a significant challenge against a formidable front seven.

New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons' roster has been ravaged by injuries heading into this matchup. Most significantly, starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending ACL injury during the overtime loss to Carolina in Week 11. Penix was operating efficiently with a 60.1% completion percentage, 1,982 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Now, the team turns to Kirk Cousins, who has struggled mightily this season and completed just 6-of-14 passes for 48 yards when he entered the Carolina game in relief. He looks old and slow.

The Saints benefited from a bye week in Week 11, allowing the team to rest, recover and prepare with fresh legs for this divisional matchup. The extra time gives rookie quarterback Tyler Shough -- who has shown improvement and earned praise for growth from his first start against Los Angeles to his impressive Week 10 performance against Carolina -- additional preparation time to review tape and refine his execution. This season, NFL teams have gone 14-8 straight up after a bye week. Atlanta has to play for the seventh consecutive week. The line has flipped from Atlanta -1.5 to New Orleans -1.5, which suggests sharp money on the home team. I agree.

San Francisco 49ers over Carolina Panthers

An interesting pattern has developed. San Francisco has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games. The 49ers are looking to string together consecutive wins after defeating Arizona 41-22. This is a great spot to break that trend. The Panthers seek to build momentum following a dramatic 30-27 overtime victory over Atlanta. History indicates they are unlikely to perform as well as they did last week.

Bryce Young delivered a career performance in Week 11, throwing for a franchise-record 448 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Atlanta. I love fading teams off record-setting performances. The Alabama product has struggled significantly in games where he's attempted 30+ passes (1-3 record in 2025), but when keeping his attempts under 30, he's 4-1 this season. Young's limited yardage suggests Carolina's offense functions best when it leans on a strong rushing attack and keeps possessions short. Kyle Shanahan is smart enough to know that to beat the Panthers, you stop the run and force Young into obvious passing downs.

A critical betting trend shows the Panthers are 0-11 in games following a road win, which is an alarming pattern heading into this matchup. The Panthers are traveling cross-country for their second straight road game and third away contest in four weeks. 

Week 12 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150 and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals over Jacksonville Jaguars

I lack confidence in this selection, especially if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out. There is still a clear path for the home team to pull off a mild upset. The Cardinals hold a 4-2 record against the Jaguars and have won four straight against Jacksonville dating back to September 2009. While historical records carry limited predictive value, the psychological advantage of facing a franchise to which you consistently lose manifests in subtle execution details across four quarters.

Jacksonville is coming off an easy victory against the Chargers, who were traveling cross-country with a 10 a.m. body clock start time. The Jaguars took full advantage of that spot. However, they will now play their third road game in the last four weeks. The coaching staff explicitly acknowledged the psychological challenge of maintaining intensity following their 35-6 domination of the Chargers. Head coach Liam Coen emphasized that his team must "find something to be angry about" in their upcoming road games against Arizona and Tennessee. The Cardinals rank sixth in consistency, while Jacksonville ranks 24th. It's an excellent example of why one should ignore win/loss records when analyzing NFL games.

Cleveland Browns over Las Vegas Raiders

I know the Cleveland Browns have been awful on the road (0-5), but the Raiders' offensive line issues don't match up great against the Browns' pass rush. Myles Garrett has recorded 15 sacks through just 11 weeks, ranking first in the NFL. He accumulated four sacks against the Ravens in Week 11 alone, demonstrating the type of disruptive performance that can derail an offense dependent on scheme execution. Brock Bowers is a beast, but will Geno Smith have time to get him the ball? I have my doubts. This is a big sack differential contest, with the Browns at +0.3 per game (3.2 vs 2.9) while Las Vegas is -1.2 (1.9 vs 3.1).

The Raiders' offensive line represents a catastrophic weakness that Garrett will aggressively target. Las Vegas is without star left tackle Kolton Miller (ankle injury), and suffered additional devastation when right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson landed on injured reserve following his ankle injury. The Cowboys manhandled Las Vegas on both sides of the ball and will now play on a short week. There is a lot of chatter that the Browns' defense is better at home. That's true, but this Raiders team is not very good.

Smith has devolved into a turnover machine. He threw his 13th interception against Dallas in Week 11 (after 11 games), now recording more interceptions than touchdowns (13 INT vs. 12 TD). His performance has triggered a legitimate question mark about whether the Raiders' offense can sustain drives. On the flip side, Shedeur Sanders will likely get his first start, and he really doesn't need to do much to secure a win. A week of first-team reps in practice should enhance his performance. The Browns will be motivated in this game, as they are tired of local beat writers discussing their road struggles.

Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles

I don't want to overreact to one game, but the Cowboys looked like a completely different team after the bye. With all their new additions, they can now stop or at least slow down opposing teams' running games. That should come in handy against Saquon Barkley and Co. this week. Dallas should also benefit from reinforcements on the back end.

The Eagles' offensive struggles have become indisputable despite their 8-2 record. Over the past two weeks, the team scored just 26 total points (16 against Detroit, 10 against Green Bay). Jalen Hurts has regressed significantly. He ranks 21st in EPA per dropback (15.9), 22nd in yards per attempt (7.4 yards), and 13th in completion percentage (66.9%). Dak Prescott is quietly having a solid season, ranking fourth in completion percentage (69.9%), fifth in yards (2,587), and first in QBR (75.1).

The Eagles have defeated the Cowboys in three straight meetings, including a 24-20 victory as 8-point chalk on Thursday Night Football to begin the season. Despite the loss, Dallas outgained the Eagles in a game delayed by severe thunderstorms.

Dallas possesses elite special teams with Brandon Aubrey (All-Pro kicker), Bryan Anger (elite punter), and KaVontae Turpin (game-changing return specialist). This unit has consistently won field position and swung close contests. Also, Dallas has a +0.8 sack differential per game, while the Eagles are -0.5, a differential that has been declining in recent weeks. I will leave you with this stat. The Philadelphia Eagles have a 12-23 career record in games in which right tackle Lane Johnson has not started since the beginning of the 2016 season. Go Cowboys!