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We've rounded the corner on the halfway point of the NFL season, and every time we think we know something about these football teams, they go and lose to the Saints at home as 5.5-point favorites. 

Just kidding! We told you to back the Saints and no one here was surprised to see them win. The Dolphins over the Bills, admittedly, was not something we saw coming. 

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Let's dive into some early Week 11 plays.

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Bet it now: Patriots -11.5 vs. Jets

This is a massive number but I think we want to get in on it now, with the the Patriots possibly ending up as much as a 14-point favorite by the time we get to kickoff on Thursday.

We saw the line move a full point on Monday, which is a pretty massive jump for a short-week divisional game, but it makes sense. New England is the darling of the NFL (once again!) and Drake Maye is an MVP favorite. The Pats are going to see money early in the week. 

It also makes a lot of sense from an actual game perspective, with the Patriots registering as one of the hardest teams in football to run on. The Jets really need to be able to run the ball if they want to win (unless they're able to score multiple times with defense and special teams) and the Pats are a horrible matchup for a team in need of rushing. 

Instead it means Justin Fields will have to drop back a bunch and throw against the New England defense, potentially while trailing and the Pats pass rushers tee off on the embattled quarterback. 

It's hard to fathom how the Jets get healthier and better for this game. They're in a let down spot and we just got the TreVeyon Henderson breakout game on Sunday, meaning the Patriots may be willing to let him loose once again on a short week where we might not see Rhamondre Stevenson.  

Bet it now: Rams -2.5 vs. Seahawks

What a game this should be. The Rams and Seahawks look like the two best teams in football and given the coaching and personnel they have, it doesn't seem like an unsustainable situation. 

So while we're jumping on the Rams here, feel free to wait if you like the Seahawks. I want the Rams -2.5 and it looks like this game could get to a full Rams -3. If that's the case we could see plenty of interest in the Seahawks, who have looked elite almost all season. 

The Seattle defense is truly elite but so is the one in Los Angeles, even if people aren't giving the Rams credit for it. Both teams have strong running games and elite No. 1 wide receivers, plus complementary No. 2s. I'd give the Rams the edge there, given that Davante Adams has played like a No. 1 wideout this year. 

I'd also give the Rams the edge at quarterback -- with all due respect to Sam Darnold, of course, who's been incredible this season. Matthew Stafford's as well equipped to handle Seattle's scary pass rush as anyone. I think this is a knockdown, drag-out fight, but the Rams are playing so well right now that anything less than -3 is a gift. 

Bet it now: Panthers +3.5 at Falcons

Now this is the kind of line where we can get behind with the Panthers. There's no world where they should be 5.5-point favorites over literally any team, but there is a world where we can back them as a road dog in a divisional matchup.

Yes, the Falcons are likely out for revenge after losing 30-0 to Carolina in Charlotte earlier this season, but good luck getting thumped by Jonathan Taylor for 200+ rushing yards, coming back from Europe and turning right around to face Rico Dowdle.

Carolina's defense was fine against the Saints. It was the offense that was the problem. But with the way Atlanta's playing right now against the run and how tried this team should be after a trip to Germany, it's nothing but good news for Rico Dowdle.

This feels like a field goal game and I want to be on anything more than 3. 

Bet it now: 49ers (-2.5) at Cardinals

The injury gambits last week didn't pay off (thanks, Jaguars!) but this is one I'm fine taking a risk on early, regardless of who ends up under center.

Kyle Shanahan said there's a real chance Brock Purdy could come back this week. If he does, this line is absolutely going north of 49ers -3. As it stands right now, the 49ers are just under the key number and look like a good early bet to make in the event Purdy comes back. If he doesn't, I think this should stand pat and you can always buy out.