NFL Week 11 betting: Expert breaks down strategy for backing underdogs in low-scoring divisional games

Division matchups reign supreme in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, with nine division games taking place headlined by the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks taking on the Los Angeles Rams. With so many division games on the docket, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman is looking at a system play involving underdogs in division games with low totals. Here's a look at how successful the formula is and who Hochman is locking in for his Week 11 play.

Divisional underdogs with low totals (over/under 42 or less)

• Win rate: 60.2% (65-43-3 ATS)

• Time frame: Since 2018

• Criteria: Underdogs of seven or more points with a total 42 or less

• Edge: Home teams in division games

Why this works

Divisional games tend to be tightly contested because teams know each other so well. When the total is at 42 or less, it usually indicates that a low-scoring game is likely. In these spots, the favorites often get overvalued by bettors, which makes the underdog spread extremely appealing, especially in a matchup where every point is crucial.

Week 11 qualifier

Cleveland Browns +8.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens | Confidence: 4 out 5

The Browns represent significant value as +8.5 home underdogs (41.5-point total) against the Ravens. While Baltimore enters riding a three-game winning streak, the spread appears inflated when examining the underlying predictive metrics and situational context that favor the Browns' chances of covering this spread at Huntington Bank Field.

The most glaring weakness lies along the Ravens' offensive line, which remains one of the most vulnerable aspects of Baltimore's offense. Through the first half of the season, Lamar Jackson was pressured at an exceptional 69.4% rate—worst in the NFL—forcing him to abandon the pocket over 30% of the time. While the Ravens have stabilized somewhat since their bye week, the structural weaknesses on their front five remain problematic. Enter Myles Garrett, who is having another DPOY campaign. Garrett has recorded 11 sacks in nine games, and the team has 27 sacks, placing them in a tie for sixth overall in the league. On the flip side, the Ravens have generated just 12 sacks while playing the league's most demanding schedule.

The Ravens have lost three of their last four games as road favorites in AFC North division matchups, a troubling trend that extends beyond raw statistics. The 4:25 p.m. ET slot further complicates things for the Ravens, as they must navigate a challenging environment at Cleveland's Huntington Bank Field. The Browns have won seven of their last eight home games played in November, demonstrating clear home-field comfort during late-season play. We only need to cover 8.5 points; winning outright is not required.

The defenses are ranked closer than you might think. While Baltimore has improved dramatically—limiting opponents to 30.6% third-down conversions and holding teams to just 14.5 PPG over the last four games—Cleveland actually excels in critical defensive metrics. The Browns rank significantly better in pass defense (167 YPG allowed vs Ravens' 249 YPG allowed) and elite in run defense (97.9 YPG vs Ravens' 123.2 YPG allowed). Looking at net yards per play, the difference is not as pronounced as you might have guessed. The Browns gain 4.1 yards per play and allow 4.7, while Baltimore gains 5.7 YPP and allows 5.7.

I always like backing the Browns as home underdogs, especially in division games with the better stop unit. Cleveland has a point differential of -15.3 in unfamiliar territory while at home, it posts a +9.0 point differential in the Dawg Pound. It's the most significant home/road split in all of football. The Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17 as 12.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained 322-242 back in Week 2 with Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland achieved more first downs and ran 19 more plays than Baltimore. A minus-two turnover differential was costly. Garrett called out his team after last week's loss, and the Browns will be highly motivated in this division matchup. With 15-25 mph winds and a 50% chance of light rain, we have the makings of a closer-than-expected low-scoring contest. My model made the game Cleveland +7.