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Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season begins on Thursday with the Denver Broncos facing the Las Vegas Raiders in a division matchup. The Raiders have struggled to win games despite making a change at coach and quarterback, while Denver leads the AFC West thanks to stellar play from Bo Nix and a staunch defense. Division matchups are often closer on the field than they may appear on paper, and SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman has one such matchup in mind when looking at best bets for Week 10. Here's the system he's using when making this play.

Road teams that lost last three ATS vs. winning teams

• Win rate: 76.7% (33-10-2 ATS)

• Time frame: 45-game sample size

• Criteria: Road underdogs are on a 0-3 ATS losing streak against a winning team

• Edge: Division games

Why this works

I really enjoy this Week 10 system and have used it frequently. When a road team in Week 10 has dropped three consecutive games against the spread, the public narrative becomes skewed against that squad. Casual bettors remember the recent losses and assume the downward trend continues. This creates excessive pessimism in the betting market, which drives the line to undervalue the underdog. Research on investor sentiment demonstrates that markets systematically overreact to bad news/results, and sports betting markets behave identically. People often give more importance to recent losses than to overall performance. The importance of division games and the familiarity that goes with them strengthens this system even more.

Week 10 qualifier

New Orleans Saints +6 vs. Carolina Panthers | Confidence: 4 out 5

The New Orleans Saints (1-8) visit the Carolina Panthers (5-4) on Sunday. The Panthers opened as -4.5 point favorites, with the line steaming up to -6 at some sportsbooks. The over/under is set at 40.5 points. In a lower-scoring game, points are at a premium. Let's get into it.

This line seems inflated at the current number. The Panthers' defense has a critical vulnerability that exploits the Saints' primary strength. Carolina ranks 28th in pressure rate, generating an average of only 1.6 sacks per game. Despite his Week 9 loss to an elite Rams pass rush, Tyler Shough showed competence in his debut, going 15-of-24 for 176 yards and a touchdown pass. Shough becomes far more dangerous against a Panthers defense that allows quarterbacks time to operate. Green Bay limited the Panthers to 102 passing yards, outgained Carolina 369 to 265 and recorded more first downs.

Looking at the schedule's strength to date, the Saints are ranked 13th while the Panthers are ranked 24th. Carolina is coming off its biggest upset in recent history, but fundamental metrics suggest these two teams are closer than their records suggest. Additionally, both teams show the same net yards per play (offense minus defense), standing at -0.6 per game.

The Panthers have a point differential of -3.9 compared to the Saints, who have a -11.7 differential. Keep in mind Carolina has played a much more manageable schedule. Last week, New Orleans had a -23 point differential while the Panthers were +3. While that looks good in print, Carolina is still -7 in its previous three games combined. Through the first nine weeks of the 2025 season, Bryce Young has started eight games for Carolina, missing Week 8 due to an ankle injury. The Panthers have been underdogs in nearly every matchup, facing spreads between +4.5 and +13.5, with the only exception being a 1-point favorite against the Jets in New Jersey. Young and the Panthers have performed admirably against these low expectations, posting a 6-3 ATS record through Week 9. However, Week 10 presents a historic opportunity. 

At DraftKings and other major sportsbooks, the Panthers are currently -5.5 to 6-point favorites over the Saints. This represents the first time in Young's career—spanning 35 starts across three seasons—that Carolina will be favored by 5.5 points or more. It feels disgusting, but the Saints are the sharp side.