Which NFC team has edge for No. 1 seed? Rams lead way but six teams have real shot to rise up
One game separates six contenders battling for that first-round bye
The 2025 NFL season is one of the more top-heavy seasons in recent years. This season has 19 of the league's 32 teams still in Super Bowl contention, the most with three weeks to play since 2005 (18 teams), per CBS Sports Research. Essentially, there aren't as many teams left in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi trophy, but it's a top-heavy year.
Nine teams are alive in the NFC, and six of them have a legitimate shot at the conference's top seed and sole first-round bye.
Let's go through the standings and remaining schedules of the top NFC contenders with three weeks to go. Just one game separates the current No. 1 seed and the current No. 6 seed in the conference. It doesn't get much more competitive than that.
NFC standings and odds projections
| Record | Conference Record | Odds to win NFC (via DraftKings) | |
|---|---|---|---|
11-3 | 6-3 | +170 | |
10-4 | 6-3 | +1400 | |
9-5 | 7-3 | +550 | |
7-7 | 5-5 | +2000 | |
11-3 | 6-3 | +350 | |
10-4 | 8-2 | +1000 | |
9-4-1 | 7-2-1 | +750 | |
8-6 | 5-5 | +1700 | |
7-7 | 5-4 | +10000 |
All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks are tied for the best record in the conference, which is why they understandably have the top two odds to win the NFC and be the No. 1 seed. Just behind them is the reigning Super Bowl LIX champion Philadelphia Eagles, thanks to their pedigree and remaining schedule, which we'll get to in a moment.
The Green Bay Packers have the fourth-best odds despite being the current No. 7 because they face the Chicago Bears in Week 16 and have already beaten them this season. The victor in that matchup will enter Week 17 at the NFC's No. 2 seed and have control atop the NFC North division standings. After four consecutive wins, the San Francisco 49ers are now up to the fifth-best odds as the No. 6 seed. The Bears have the sixth-best odds given they could drop down to the No. 7 seed with a loss to the Packers on Saturday, a team they've already lost to this season.
Then, there's the Detroit Lions (+1700) and the two NFC South division contenders -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2000) and the Carolina Panthers (+10000) bringing up the rear.
Remaining schedule for NFC contenders
| Game | Rams | Bears | Eagles | Buccaneers | Seahawks | 49ers | Packers | Lions | Panthers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 16 | at Seahawks (11-3) | vs. Packers (9-4-1) | at Commanders (4-10) | at Panthers (7-7) | vs. Rams (11-3) | at Colts (8-6) | at Bears (10-4) | vs. Steelers (8-6) | vs. Buccaneers (7-7) |
Week 17 | at Falcons (5-9) | at 49ers (10-4) | at Bills (10-4) | at Dolphins (6-8) | at Panthers (7-7) | vs. Bears (10-4) | vs. Ravens (7-7) | at Vikings (6-8) | at Seahawks (11-3) |
Week 18 | at Cardinals (3-11) | vs. Lions (8-6) | vs. Commanders (4-10) | vs. Panthers (7-7) | at 49ers (10-4) | vs. Seahawks (11-3) | at Vikings (6-8) | at Bears (10-4) | at Buccaneers (7-7) |
Easiest remaining strength of schedule by opponent win percentage
- Philadelphia Eagles .429
- Los Angeles Rams .452
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers .476
- Green Bay Packers .548
- Detroit Lions .571
- Carolina Panthers .595
- Chicago Bears .655
- Seattle Seahawks .667
- San Francisco 49ers .690
The Eagles far and away have the easiest remaining schedule with two games against the Marcus Mariota-led, 4-10 Washington Commanders, plus a head-to-head victory over the Rams in Week 3. Their problem is getting to the top spot; being two games back would mean Los Angeles suffering a stunning upset defeat at the hands of a washed-up Kirk Cousins or the directionless Arizona Cardinals. That's probably not happening.
The Rams obviously have the most straightforward path as the current one seed. If they beat the Seahawks again on "Thursday Night Football" this week, they all but lock up the No. 1 seed. Should they falter in Seattle on Thursday, the race for the top seed will open up drastically.
The Seahawks have the second-toughest remaining schedule of the NFC contenders, so even if they do hold serve at home to beat Los Angeles, they'll play two teams jockeying for playoff positioning in the Panthers and the 49ers. Both of those matchups, but especially the road showdown against the 49ers, possess trip-up potential for the Seahawks.
Should Seattle upset the Rams, then the Packers have a strong shot at climbing up to the top seed. If they can sweep the Bears for the 8th time in 10 seasons in Week 16, they then will host the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17 -- a team whose quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is catching a cold at the wrong time (the South Florida native missed practice on Wednesday with an illness). After that, there would be a rematch with J.J. McCarthy's Vikings in Minnesota, a team Green Bay beat 23-6 in the first matchup. The Bears' and 49ers' respective roads to the No. 1 seed are considerably more difficult, given their last three games are all against playoff hopefuls.
Los Angeles, Seattle, Philadelphia and Green Bay have the obvious inside track to the one seed, with Los Angeles and Green Bay having the top two edges in the race because of their records and how their schedules lighten up after Week 16.
