NFC East win totals predictions: Back the Cowboys and fade the Commanders

The 2025 season was the year we finally saw a team win the NFC East in back-to-back seasons. The Philadelphia Eagles' second consecutive division title snapped a streak of 20 straight seasons without a repeat champion in the NFC East, which was the longest streak by any division in NFL/NBA/MLB/NHL history, but even 2025 wasn't a successful season for Philly.

Despite going 11-6, the Eagles became the first defending Super Bowl champion to lose in the wild-card round since the 2019 New England Patriots, as Philly was quickly ousted from the postseason by the banged-up San Francisco 49ers. The offense took a major step backward, as Jalen Hurts' unit averaged the lowest points per game (22.3), total yards per game (311.2) and rushing yards per game (116.9) of the Nick Sirianni era. 

In fact, 2025 wasn't a good season for any team in the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys looked smart in trading for wide receiver George Pickens, but the defense sank this team, as they were the only franchise to allow more than 30 points per game last season. The Washington Commanders had similar issues, as their defense ranked dead last in yards allowed per game, but star quarterback Jayden Daniels also missed 10 games due to injury. Washington went from the NFC Championship game to 5-12. Then there was the New York Giants, who went 4-13 while starting Russell Wilson, Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston at quarterback. Brian Daboll was fired and replaced by John Harbaugh.

What does the unpredictable NFC East have in store for us this year? Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule has been released, we can really start to break down the league. Let's dissect the 2026 win totals for each NFC East team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 9.5 (Over +115, Under -140)

I may be ready to get on the Cowboys bandwagon. The offense ranked No. 2 in the NFL last year, but the defense ranked dead last in points allowed per contest. I do think the defense is improved with the additions of Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, Dee Winters, Cobie Durant and Rashan Gary. Seriously, how did NFL general managers allow a guy like Downs to fall out of the top 10? He was the first true defensive back to finish top 10 in Heisman voting since 2011, and was the first defensive back since Eric Berry to be named a Unanimous All-American twice.

With the NFC East seemingly in flux, the Cowboys getting to double-digit wins looks enticing. Jalen Hurts is at a crossroads, having lost A.J. Brown; the Commanders are back to being a bottom-feeder without Jayden Daniels; and the Giants are a major question mark. I like the Cowboys getting to 10-7 at plus money.

Verdict: Over 9.5

New York Giants: Over/Under 7.5 (-110)

There's reason for optimism in New York, but let's keep things in perspective. The Giants have won eight games in a season just once since 2016. Landing a Super Bowl-winning head coach like John Harbaugh is great, but I'm not sure the Giants are going to be some kind of sleeper in 2026.

Defensively, I'm excited to see what the Giants are capable of. Abdul Carter and Brian Burns may be a fun duo at pass rusher, Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese at linebacker look great, then Paulson Adebo and Greg Newsome II are solid cornerbacks with rookie Colton Hood expected to contribute. Offensively, I have more questions. 

Jaxson Dart became the second rookie quarterback all-time to throw for 15 touchdowns and rush for nine touchdowns, joining Cam Newton. However, he crossed 247 yards passing in just 1 of 12 starts, and was evaluated for concussions in 5 out of the first 10 games he played, including preseason. Cam Skattebo is an exciting running back, but he's coming off a major ankle injury, and then Malik Nabers suffered a torn ACL that was "not a simple knee injury," per Harbaugh. Nabers needed a second procedure, and there's no guarantee he's ready for the season opener -- or that he will be the same explosive player. 

The Giants have gone Under their preseason win total in eight of the last nine seasons. I'm going to take the Under here as well with the Giants going 7-10. 

Verdict: Under 7.5

Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under 10.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

To me, the Eagles are one of the toughest teams to figure out this season. I think they have a ceiling of Super Bowl champions and a basement of a losing team. We had that ESPN exposé painting Jalen Hurts as a quarterback unwilling to adjust and embrace schematic changes, and now, the Eagles have charged an inexperienced coach, Sean Mannion, who was a backup quarterback just three years ago, with getting the Eagles offense back to being one of the best in the league. Oh, and Philly lost offensive line legend Jeff Stoutland and wide receiver A.J. Brown.

Still, I would argue that the Eagles did an OK job preparing for Brown's departure. Philly traded for Dontayvion Wicks; Hollywood Brown is a deep-ball threat; second-round pick Eli Stowers is a former track star who led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards last season; but potentially the best addition the Eagles made is Makai Lemon. The All-American is the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner who had four different games last season where he exploded for 150 yards receiving and a touchdown. Lemon had 16 receptions of 20+ air yards last season, which ranked in the top five in the FBS, but should also be easy to scheme up touches for out of the slot. It makes life easier for Hurts, who doesn't exactly thrive going through progressions against zone coverage.

Defensively, the Eagles could return to being a top 10 unit. We know what players like Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean bring to the table, but the Eagles also added pass rusher Jonathan Greenard and cornerback Tariq Woolen. With all of that being said, I can't in good faith bet on the Eagles to get back to 11 wins with all of the questions on offense.

Verdict: Under 10.5

Washington Commanders: Over/Under 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)

The Washington Commanders getting back to the NFC Championship game is not as simple as keeping Jayden Daniels healthy. Don't overlook the fact that Washington had what was statistically the worst defense in the NFL last season, with 384.0 yards of total offense surrendered per game. Adam Peters brought in Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson to rush the passer and drafted linebacker Sonny Styles in the first round, but I'm concerned about this secondary, and wonder if it can keep up with all of the weapons the NFC East has to offer. The Commanders added just Amik Robertson and Nick Cross to help what was a bottom-five pass defense. 

I think the Commanders could start 0-4 this season. They play at the Eagles, at the Cowboys, vs. the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and then get Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts in London. The Giants come in Week 5, with the 49ers on the road on "Monday Night Football" in Week 6 before the bye in Week 7. That is not an easy start. I'll take the Under at plus money, as Washington has hit the Under on its preseason win total in four out of the last five seasons. We'll see if Daniels can stay healthy.

Verdict: Under 7.5

Fans interested in betting on NFL and Super Bowl futures should check out the latest DraftKings promo code.

Odds to win the NFC East in 2026