How to bet on the Falcons in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best futures bets for Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons struggled mightily to find Matt Ryan's replacement after the 2021 season, and they thought they had both a short-term answer in Kirk Cousins, who they inked to a $180 million deal, and a long-term one in Michael Penix Jr., who the team surprisingly selected No. 8 overall in last year's draft. Cousins was coming off an Achilles tear in 2023 and struggled to return to form. Atlanta then handed the reins to Penix, and while the Falcons dropped two of his three starts, they averaged 32 points per game over that span. 

Penix is now penned in as the starter, so the team spent the offseason focusing on improving a defense that had the second-fewest sacks in the NFL last year. The Falcons signed Leonard Floyd to a one-year, $10 million deal -- their biggest signing of the offseason on an average annual value basis -- before using two first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce. Then, Atlanta selected two defensive backs. 

The Falcons did little to improve the offense around Penix heading into 2025, so much of the onus will be on the second-year quarterback playing well and improving the players around him. Penix threw for a lot of yards in his three starts but completed under 60% of his passes with three touchdowns and three picks, and he faced below-average defenses in two of his three starts and the worst defense last year in the other. Atlanta has one of the easiest schedules in the league this year, but Penix will have to step up for the Falcons to make the postseason for the first time since 2017.

We're going to take a quick look at the Falcons' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Falcons in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Atlanta Falcons season review

• Regular season: 8-9 (Second, NFC South)
• Playoffs: Missed
• Missed playoffs for seventh straight season (tied for second longest active NFL drought)
• Went 2-6 in final 8 games after starting season 6-3
• Bijan Robinson: Third-most rush yards (1,456) in NFL behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry

2025 Atlanta Falcons offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Atlanta Falcons futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Michael Penix Jr. props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Falcons

The Falcons appeared to be heading towards the postseason after a 6-3 start, but Cousins' play took a massive step backward and eventually cost him his job. Cousins is now a premier backup making a lot of money sitting behind Penix, and that appears to be the right decision. The rookie was solid in his three-game audition, beating the Giants and getting Atlanta to overtime in losses to the Commanders and Panthers. Penix now has a full offseason to work as the unquestioned starter, and he should be able to utilize the weapons he has on offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Darnell Mooney. 

Defensively, the Falcons went to work this offseason, adding three notable pass rushers in free agency and the draft, so that unit should take a step forward, even though the team is counting on two rookies. 

Additionally, this is a weak NFC South as the Saints are expected to be among the league's worst teams while the Panthers still appear to be rebuilding. Tampa Bay has won the NFC South each of the last four years, but the Bucs could be in for some regression, which would help the Falcons' playoff chances.

Reasons to fade the Falcons

Expectations appears to do Cousins in during the middle of the 2024 season, and those now fall on Penix as he enters his first season as a full-time starter. There's a lot of great skill players on this offense but he's going to have to make them go. Optimists can point to his games late last season but he did throw three touchdowns and three interceptions while completing just 58.1% of his throws. It's unlikely he takes a massive leap in 2025 and the more probable result is a slight improvement as he gets more familiar with the system. Even though Atlanta's defense was gashed across the board a year ago, patching those holes with rookies is unlikely to deliver an immediate fix. Floyd's production has been stellar and he's in a contract year but he is also going to be 33 early in the season and will the primary concern for opposing offenses.

The schedule is also a challenge for Atlanta. The Falcons have an early bye week, which means any midseason issues that crop up have to be dealt with during preparation for the next game. Even though there are only six playoff teams from a year ago on this schedule, the Panthers should be improved after surging late in 2024. The 49ers and Dolphins are candidates to bounce back from down seasons and Arizona is also likely to get better.

How to bet the Falcons in 2025

• Under 7.5 wins +130 (Caesars)
• Michael Penix Jr. Over 3350.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)

The schedule could help Atlanta get to eight wins, but I just don't know how someone can have a lot of confidence in this team without buying in completely to Michael Penix being a franchise quarterback, which I haven't yet. Perhaps bringing in Jeff Ulbrich from the Jets and the two rookie edge rushers will suddenly give the Falcons an above-average defense, but projecting that involves another layer of optimism on top of Penix playing like a league-average starting QB or better. The other offseason moves don't breed a lot of confidence, and I don't know what on Atlanta's requires us to just slot them in as better than the Panthers without question, and that's coming from someone who isn't sure he's buying into Carolina either.

The one thing I do expect is for Penix to throw for a bunch of yards between the 20s in an offense that had more than 4,000 passing yards last year. If he stays healthy for all 17 games, he'll only need 200 per game to get to 3,400 yards. That's not exactly guaranteed -- five QBs started at least 10 games without hitting that average -- but I think it's a reasonable expectation in this offense after we saw what Penix could do at the end of last year. If the Falcons lose the juicy Under play above, I have a lot more confidence in Penix hitting this Over, so consider it a bit of a hedge if you're not full bought in on Under 7.5 wins.