How to bet on the Dolphins: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets, predictions for Miami in 2025

The Miami Dolphins came into the 2024 NFL season with hopes of recording their first playoff win since 2000, but a slow start that included the latest injury to star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which caused him to miss four of the team's first six games, left the Dolphins with just 70 points on the season by the time Tagovailoa returned in Week 8. That's a significant point total, considering they put it up in a single game the previous year, which highlights the biggest difference between the 2023 Dolphins (second in points scored) and the 2024 Dolphins (22nd in points scored).

The biggest hurdle for the Dolphins to conquer in their quest to go from a good team to a great one is how they perform against other good teams. Over the last two seasons, the Dolphins have had a bigger discrepancy between their win percentage in games against teams better than .500 and .500 or worse than any team over the last 30 years, going 1-10 against teams that entered the matchup better than .500 and 18-5 otherwise.

Improvements will have to come internally after the Dolphins added just one key player in free agency in guard James Daniels. 2024 second-round pick Patrick Paul takes over at left tackle following the retirement of Terron Armstead, and his development will be key to the Dolphins' offensive success considering the importance of keeping Tagovailoa upright. The talent drain continued for the Dolphins at the end of June with Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith being sent to Pittsburgh, though Miami did acquire their former first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick to help the secondary deal with Ramsey's departure.

We're going to take a quick look at the Dolphins' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Dolphins in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Miami Dolphins season review

• Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC East)
• Playoffs: Missed
• First losing season since 2019
• 2-4 record without Tua Tagovailoa (6-5 with him)
• Longest active playoff win drought in NFL (2000) 
  

2025 Miami Dolphins offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Miami Dolphins futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Tua Tagovailoa props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Dolphins

Miami battled a lot of injuries last season and while some key players ended up battling through the issues, the entire offense looked out of sync for most of the campaign. Tagovailoa's health was a major part of that, while Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane also had injuries. When this offense was healthy in 2023, it ranked first in yards per game and second in points per game. There's no reason to believe those feats can't be replicated, even with Jonnu Smith and Raheem Mostert gone. McDaniel has shown he can develop a potent NFL offense; he just needs his players to be healthy in order to do so.

The Dolphins have a late bye but the schedule is incredibly favorable to start the year. Miami will play only two teams that made the postseason a year ago across the first eight weeks, which means the Dolphins could easily be 7-1 or 6-2 entering a big showdown with the Ravens in Week 9. That'll also be a home game for Miami. Coming out of the bye, Miami faces four straight opponents who missed the postseason last year.

Reasons to fade the Dolphins

There was a lot of turnover with this team and losing two key components in a trade is always going to complicate things, even if the Dolphins did get Minkah Fitzpatrick. Smith is coming off a career season and Jalen Ramsey has consistently been one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Miami has a lot of injuries defensively already, and this team wasn't exactly a top unit in 2024. There's a chance the offense is going to have to go into overdrive and that could lead to fatigue down the stretch. We've seen the Dolphins start hot and run out of gas at the end of the season, which is definitely in play here with a late bye week. McDaniel has been good but it feels like he's coaching for his job in 2025. That's never a good cloud to have hanging over your team.

How to bet the Dolphins in 2025

• Over 8.5 wins +165 (BetMGM)
• Tyreek Hill Over 975.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)

It's fair to think the Dolphins will win fewer than nine games this year based on the state of their offensive line and questions on the defensive side of the ball. But the extent to which the market is expecting it to happen is a bit much for me. The schedule sets up well for Miami to catch teams off guard in the first half of the season and enter a tough Week 9-11 stretch with as many as seven wins already in the bank, as road trips to Indianapolis, Carolina, Cleveland and Atlanta are all winnable if key players remain healthy. They'll have tougher road spots against the Jets, Steelers and Patriots late in the year when weather will be a factor, but I think an Over play has a better chance of hitting than the market suggests. For full disclosure, I fell into the same trap earlier in the offseason and made a play on Under 8.5 (-135) for the Dolphins, but I'll definitely be looking to make a stronger play back in the other direction.

The market is being very conservative with its Tyreek Hill projections coming off his worst season since 2019, as he had just 959 yards while playing all 17 games. The injury to Tagovailoa certainly didn't help, as Hill averaged 67 yards in the games Tagovailoa made it through, which would still put him well shy of his typical 1,200-yard season but able to hit 1,000 yards in his 16th game. I don't think there are many health concerns with Hill considering he has played at least 16 games in four straight seasons, and it seems he's now committed to the Dolphins after his post-season trade request. If he is moved, he would certainly be the focal point of any offense paying the price to acquire him. If he stays, he no longer has to worry about Jonnu Smith stealing production and it's unlikely Darren Waller will be as big a factor coming out of retirement. With most of the receivers you're playing over a total in this range, there isn't as much proven upside as there is with Hill, who averaged double his yards per game in 2023 than he did last year.