Falcons at a crossroads? How Michael Penix Jr. injury in Week 11 loss could lead to big changes in Atlanta

The NFL Week 11, 30-27 loss to the Carolina Panthers was a turning point for the Atlanta Falcons -- in more ways than one. What was statistically the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL allowed the struggling Bryce Young to throw for a franchise-record 448 yards and three touchdowns, and injuries on offense have shifted the trajectory of this season, and maybe the franchise at large.

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. injured his left knee while taking a sack in the third quarter, and could be done for the year. NFL Media reports that Penix aggravated a bone bruise and knee sprain from earlier this season. There is also reportedly damage to the ACL, which could mean a full reconstruction for the former No. 8 overall pick. 

With the Falcons now sitting at 3-7 having lost five straight games, and down their starting quarterback, we can say that this season has been an unmitigated disaster. It's time for the franchise to reevaluate where it stands, and what direction it wants to head in. Let's take a look.

Penix's struggles

Penix completed 81.3% of his passes for 175 yards before exiting Sunday's matchup. In nine games this season, he's 3-6 as the starter, and has completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. 

Despite some of the promise that Penix showed as a rookie in his three starts that forced Kirk Cousins to the bench, he hasn't been that spark plug the Falcons were hoping for. Atlanta's offense ranks No. 16 in the NFL (332.5 total yards per game) and No. 27 in points (19.5 points per game). There was likely a part of Falcons fans who were secretly hoping the gunslinger could come in and have a Jayden Daniels-like impact on this offense. That just hasn't happened. 

Now, Penix is virtually a rookie. This is true. But his injury history is well-documented. It was the most glaring "con" when it came to Penix the prospect. 

What does it say that Penix suffered potentially his third serious knee injury in his first season as Atlanta's full-time starter? Is that something that coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot are going to brush off, or will it create concern? 

Penix injury history

Falcons WR Drake London will miss at least one week with PCL sprain, per report

Austin Nivison

Things won't get better with Cousins

Enter Cousins to the starting lineup. 

While Cousins reportedly requested a trade out of Atlanta when Penix stole his job, the Falcons stood firm in holding his rights. The thought process was to have what hypothetically could be one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in case Atlanta's young quarterback who, as highlighted above, goes down with an injury. The problem is, Cousins has not looked like one of the premier backups in the NFL.

Cousins has started just one game this season, which was a 34-10 loss to the Miami Dolphins. In that game, the 37-year-old completed 21 of 31 passes for 173 yards and zero touchdowns, while the Falcons managed just 213 yards of total offense. It was an embarrassing outing for this team in front of its home fans, as the Falcons were blown out by the previous one-win Dolphins.

Cousins isn't going to elevate this Falcons offense, and judging off what he's looked like in three total games played this season, he will be a downgrade compared to what the inconsistent Penix brought to the position. Atlanta appears to be squarely in the mix for a top three pick. But, oh wait. 

No first-round pick

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Rams, who currently hold the No. 8 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft despite being one of the best teams in the NFL. The Rams sent their No. 26 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to the Falcons in a deal that included Atlanta's 2026 first-rounder. 

The Falcons got aggressive on opening night of the draft, selecting Georgia pass rusher Jalon Walker at No. 15 overall, then circling back and taking Tennessee pass rusher James Pearce Jr. 11 picks later with the Rams' selection. The two rookies have combined for 40 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 10 games played. 

It's probably too early to say if this trade was a good or bad decision, but it has not paid immediate dividends like the Falcons had hoped for. Atlanta could really use a first-round pick in this upcoming draft. Unfortunately, it's the Rams who will benefit from the Falcons' failures on the field in 2025. 

Wavering weaponry

Despite the Falcons' struggles on offense overall, wide receiver Drake London is having a career year. Through nine games, he's caught 60 passes for 810 yards and six touchdowns, while averaging a career-high 90 yards receiving per game. However, London suffered a PCL sprain vs. the Panthers, and is going to miss at least next week.

Tight end Kyle Pitts has added 47 catches for 434 yards and one touchdown, having still not lived up to the No. 4 overall billing, while Bijan Robinson has already recorded a career-high 506 yards receiving and two touchdowns through 10 games. This is the Atlanta "big three," and this season, they have accounted for 77.7% of the team's receptions, and 78.4% of the Falcons' receiving yards. Where is the other help? When it comes to Penix's other targets, this season has been a disaster. 

Wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard was fired following Atlanta's Week 3, 30-0 loss to Carolina, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was moved down to the sideline from the coach's booth. Ray-Ray McCloud, who caught 62 passes for 686 yards and a touchdown in 2024, was released last month after being made a healthy scratch in two straight weeks. He had a close relationship with Hilliard, calling him "The best coach I ever had." 

Then, there's Darnell Mooney. He has caught just 16 passes for 224 yards this season after racking up 992 yards and a career-high five touchdowns for Atlanta last year. Why is that? Mooney was said to have suffered a shoulder injury in training camp, but coach Morris recently revealed that Mooney broke his collarbone! No wonder he hasn't looked the same. 

The other pass catchers who have seen playing time for the Falcons are Casey Washington, David Sills and KhaDarel Hodge. Not one of them has 100 yards receiving on the season. It's clear that the Falcons are going to have to add talent and depth at wide receiver this offseason, because it has directly affected the performance of Penix and the offense.

Could a Bijan Robinson trade be in the cards?

The best player the Falcons have is their star running back Robinson. Through 10 games he's rushed for 783 yards and four touchdowns, and caught 47 passes for 506 yards and two more scores. Robinson currently ranks third in the NFL in scrimmage yards with 1,289 behind Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.

The Falcons own Robinson's rights for at least two more years beyond 2025 thanks to the fifth-year option, but is he long for this roster? Will he eventually become the next star running back to be traded by a bad team? 

You may laugh at this question being raised right now, but there is precedent of struggling franchises trading away elite running backs. The Falcons don't even have to look outside of their own division to see a team that did just that, as the Panthers sent Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers in the middle of his sixth season back in 2022. The best running back in the NFL landed a lucrative extension in 2020, but that money didn't satisfy either party. 

Robinson is eligible for an extension this offseason. While the Falcons likely view this dynamic weapon as a pillar of their offense moving forward, how close is the franchise to competing, and getting the most out of a star running back? Or are they closer to a rebuild? 

Moving forward

It's not fair to give up on Penix following 12 career starts, but two things could complicate his immediate future. Penix's new knee injury may have just put the Falcons in the market for a starting quarterback, and it's probably fair to say that the two men making that decision are on the hot seat. Fontenot is 32-46 as Atlanta's general manager with zero winning seasons in five years with six different starting quarterbacks, while Morris is set to post his second straight losing season. Their struggling quarterback is having what could be his third ACL surgery, so they could change course. 

Week 11 and all the unfortunate developments that came from it was not just a sign that Atlanta's 2025 season was lost, but potentially something more.