Defending Colts starting Daniel Jones at QB: Projection model loves decision to bench Anthony Richardson

The Colts made what to many appears to be a baffling decision to bench Anthony Richardson after only 15 career starts in which he had an 8-7 record for a quarterback in Daniel Jones who became more punchline than protagonist during his six seasons in New York, which ended with a 24-44-1 record. Our Jared Dubin expertly highlighted why the choice of Jones over Richardson was the wrong call. 

I'm not as pessimistic on the decision, and in fact, Jones makes me more likely to back the Colts to win more than 7.5 games, which is -110 on both sides of their win total in the betting market. That's a number that has barely moved from when we first broke down the Colts from a betting perspective back in June, with some books slightly adjusting the juice but others remaining right where they had their win totals set months ago. I'm also more likely to take them to win the AFC South at +350 or higher in the market, as I don't see a significant gap between them and the Texans if Shane Steichen can get decent play out of Jones.

Tall order? Maybe. But I'd argue there's a better chance of that then Richardson reaching his high ceiling in Year 3 after presumably not looking like he's made much progress in training camp this season.

Anthony Richardson a poor bet for success

In 2024, there were 34 quarterbacks who threw at least 250 passes, a similar number to 2023 (31), 2022 (31), and so on. Not only was Richardson's 47.7% completion rate the worst among those 34 quarterbacks last year, but it was the worst of any quarterback to throw 250 passes in a season since Tim Tebow (46.5%) in 2011. Prior to Tebow, the last quarterback to complete less than 48% of at least 250 passes was Akili Smith (44.2%) in 2000. Three QBs hit that level of futility in the 1990s, with only one starting more than one game in his career after, and Heath Shuler didn't exactly cover himself in glory with five TDs and 21 interceptions in his next 14 starts.

Now, once you go back further than that you can find success stories ranging from John Elway to Phil Simms to Vinny Testaverde and others. But that is a long ways away from the modern game, and I don't have to tell you how much more unlikely it is that Richardson is the next Elway than the next Tebow, even with his awesome raw skills. You can argue that even a 1% chance of it happening is worth pursuing if your other option is Daniel Jones, but at some point you have to face reality.

What happens if you broaden the parameters to 50% completion rate or worse rather than 48%? That does bring in another story of perseverance after Drew Bledsoe's 49.9% completion rate all the way back in 1993, but you're also then including Ryan Leaf's 50% completion rate in 2000. Leaf barely missed the sub-48% rate group for his rookie season as well, but he came five passes short of making our 250-attempt cutoff. And when you join a list of QB worsts since 2000 that only include the names Leaf, Tebow and Akili Smith, three of the biggest cautionary tales of first-round QBs in the last 30 years, it seems pretty clear where your career is heading.

Perhaps the best realistic scenario for Richardson is Kerry Collins, who went sub-50% twice in his first four seasons after being drafted by the Panthers before becoming a journeyman who was eventually able to take the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000. Setting aside the fact that he needed a change of scenery, Collins played 17 years in the league, a career that Richardson would likely take in a heartbeat. But he only managed an 81-99 record as a starter and finished with 10 wins or more just three times while earning zero All-Pro distinctions and just two Pro Bowl bids (one in Carolina).

The SportsLine Projection Model examined the Colts' potential 2025 season with Richardson at quarterback, and the average outcome is an uninspiring 6.4 wins. That's because Richardson's potential to provide negative value well below the range of what Jones delivers is sky high, while the potential to hit his ceiling is extremely low. Even though the potential with a Richardson where everything clicks is 12 wins, the small likelihood of it happening would give the Colts about a 10.1% chance to win the division and a 14.6% chance to make the playoffs.

Daniel Jones: Higher floor or no?

Part of the argument with starting Richardson over Jones is that while the chances of the former becoming your franchise quarterback are vanishingly small, the chances of Jones becoming your franchise quarterback are zero. I'm not here to try and argue Jones was secretly pretty solid in New York, but I do think his chances of being solid in Indianapolis are far greater than Richardson's.

Jones' pass success rate was the worst of anyone to throw at least 1,200 passes over the last six years at 42.8%. Expand the sample to include players with 1,000 attempts and only Justin Fields was worse. For comparison, Richardson's success rate last year was 36%. Not great, any way you slice it for either Indy quarterback. But Shane Steichen has had success with that Jones level of success over the last few years, going .500 despite starting Richardson, Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew.

That last name is an interesting one, as Minshew gives Jones a run for his money near the bottom of the pass success rate standings. His worst season in that metric in fact came in Indy, where he was 7-6 while posting similar numbers to Jones' best season in New York, though the latter had much better completion and interceptions rates while contributing more in the ground game. I'm not sure low pass success rates are inherent to Steichen's offensive system, however -- Flacco only had two better seasons in the metric in Baltimore, for example.

Clearly, New York was not a great situation for Jones, even if you put all that comes with being the franchise QB of a New York team aside. He was inherited by Brian Daboll, who had to design a limited offense around Jones to have early success but then didn't have a counter move once defenses got wise in following seasons. Maybe that's how it plays out in Indy as well, or perhaps Steichen is able to craft something different around Jones that has more sustainable success.

One positive aspect I don't think can be argued against for Jones is that he's in a much better situation in Indy than New York, where his receiver corps started out as Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, and the team's big moves to supplement that during Jones' tenure were signing Kenny Golladay and drafting Kadarius Toney. Not only in Jones set up with a much more dynamic set of weapons in Indy, from Michael Pittman to Josh Downs to Adonai Mitchell to Alec Pierce to Tyler Warren, but he'll be playing behind a much better offensive line, an area that has been an issue in New York for years.

The SportsLine Projection Model agrees that the average Jones season looks much better than the average Richardson season, with its 10,000 simulations giving the Colts an average of 8.1 wins with Jones. Their chances at winning the division nearly triple to 30.2%, and the same is true with their playoff chances at 41.2%. To the low ceiling argument, there's still just a 0.2% chance to win the Super Bowl, slightly better than with Richardson but not even to move the needle in the title race.

Time to bet Colts futures?

Best bet: Colts Over 7.5 (-105, Caesars)  

Let's be clear: I'm not going to bet the Colts to win the AFC with Jones at quarterback. I see their realistic upside with Jones at 10 wins, though of course if they catch a few breaks maybe they can add a win or two. But I see their floor barring key injury at seven wins if Jones were to play 17 games, because I believe in the talent on the roster around him. Some of what happens with the Colts is out of the control of even the quarterback, of course -- who knows if the defense benefits from the switch at defensive coordinator, and if a key injury hits an offensive line that is already replacing two offseason departures, it could change everything about the effectiveness of the offense.

I do like the Colts to win division at +350 or better, which is available plenty in the market, including +375 at BetMGM. That's a reflection of not being high on the Texans after watching them top out at 10 wins the last two seasons in what's probably easier circumstances when you look at the improvements the other teams in the division made this offseason. I could easily the Texans as an eight-win team that leaves the door open for one of the other three to catch a few breaks and win the division with nine or 10 wins. I'd prefer the Colts to the Jaguars among the two options with Jones, but my best value play for the division remains the Titans.