Chiefs vs. Commanders prediction: K.C. eyes fifth win in six games as Washington leans on Marcus Mariota again
Patrick Mahomes looks to keep up his MVP-caliber play against Washington
By
Jared Dubin
•
5 min read
In the Week 8 edition of "Monday Night Football," the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Washington Commanders.
Kansas City is coming off a dominating win over the division-rival Raiders, which moved the Chiefs over .500 for the first time this season. They have won four of their last five games after starting out 0-2, and they have a chance here to keep pace in the AFC West race.
Washington lost in blowout fashion to division-rival Dallas last week, dropping to 3-4 in the process after previously having blown a winnable game against the Bears the week before. The Commanders are once again starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota here, after Jayden Daniels suffered an injury during the loss to the Cowboys.
Will the Chiefs continue to roll, or will the Commanders bounce back? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Bet Chiefs vs. Commanders at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if their first wager doesn't win with the promo code CBSSPORTS.
Where to watch Chiefs vs. Commanders live
- Date: Monday, Oct. 27 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
- TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Chiefs -10.5, O/U 48.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
LIVE updates: Follow along with all the action as the Chiefs battle the Commanders on "Monday Night Football."
When the Commanders have the ball
As mentioned, the Commanders are once again without Jayden Daniels for this game.
Mariota made two starts in place of Daniels earlier this season and went 31 of 48 for 363 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Raiders and Falcons, while adding 60 yards and a touchdown on his eight carries. Mariota will benefit from having Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel back. McLaurin has been out since Week 4 while Samuel was playing through a heel injury and missed last week because of it.
Kansas City's defense has been stingy since a season-opening loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs have allowed fewer than 300 total yards in four of their last six games, and last week they held the Raiders to 95 (NINETY-FIVE) yards on only 30 snaps. They've faced something of a soft schedule during that stretch thanks to games against Russell Wilson, a half of Cooper Rush and then the Raiders, but they also held the Lions largely in check and didn't exactly get lit up by Lamar Jackson before his injury.
Washington will likely try to control the game on the ground with Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Mariota, given that the run game is likely to be the strength of the offense and that doing so would help keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.
The Commanders are averaging a league-best 5.3 yards per rush, with a significant portion of those being yards after contact because both their running backs and quarterbacks have been good at breaking tackles. (They have the league's 10th-highest avoided tackle rate.) The Chiefs can be run on, as they have given up 4.5 yards per carry, so the strategy of trying to pound the rock is probably a wise one.
When Mariota does drop back to pass, he'll face a unit that ranks fifth-best in the league in EPA per dropback, via Tru Media, holding opponents to 6.6 yards per attempt with just seven touchdowns in seven weeks against four picks. The Chiefs have limited explosive plays through the air for the most part, and they've done an excellent job of getting off the field on third downs. Their pressure rate is among the best in the league and the coverage has largely been sticky. Even with McLaurin and Samuel back, Mariota could struggle through the air unless Kliff Kingsbury finds a way to scheme him into quick-strike throws.
In a season slipping away, Commanders are right to prioritize Jayden Daniels' health -- now and for the future
Zachary Pereles
When the Chiefs have the ball
Kansas City's offense is on a roll right now. After a slow start to the season, the Chiefs have produced at least 355 yards, 24 first downs and 28 points in four consecutive games. The Chiefs got Rashee Rice back last week against the Raiders, and he debuted with seven catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns despite playing only 33 snaps. Kansas City will continue to ramp up his workload and continue to benefit from his presence.
Patrick Mahomes is already playing at an MVP level with a 66.1% completion rate at 7.3 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and he's added 250 yards and four scores with his legs. Mahomes has finally gotten back to hitting for explosive plays, connecting with guys like Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton and Hollywood Brown down the field while continuing to work efficiently in the underneath areas of the field, just as he has for the last several seasons.
Washington has been one of the NFL's weakest pass defenses this season, checking in 23rd in Tru Media's EPA per dropback while allowing opponents to average 8.3 yards per attempt and throw 12 touchdown passes against two interceptions. The Commanders have given up 22 completions of 20 or more yards, per Tru Media, ranking 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. Against a Chiefs team that is throwing downfield more often than in recent seasons, that's a recipe for giving up big plays.
The Commanders will have to generate a ton of pressure to cover up for the secondary, and they have actually done a good job of that so far this year, collecting a sack, hit or hurry on 40.7% of opponent dropbacks while blitzing at a rate only slightly above league average. The Chiefs will again be without left tackle Josh Simmons, but they've largely kept Mahomes well protected this year and he has done an incredible job of scrambling away from pressure whenever the protection has broken down.
Kansas City's run game hasn't been much to write home about so far this year, with Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith combining to average just 3.9 yards per carry. Pacheco has recently taken more control of the backfield with Hunt taking a back seat, but Hunt has remained the third-down and short-yardage back. Smith has mostly operated as a gadget guy, with the Chiefs looking to get the ball in his hands whenever he's on the field but using him in a limited role, primarily as a pass-catcher.
Washington's defensive front has done an OK job against the run this season, limiting opposing backs to just 1.22 yards before contact per carry, which ranks 10th in the NFL. The Commanders have been a poor tackling unit, though, ranking 29th in broken tackle rate and giving up yards after contact. Whether this group of Chiefs backs is capable of breaking tackles is an open question, but the game plan is likely to be pass-heavy and focused on Mahomes and Co. either way.
Prediction
Kansas City has matchup advantages here, particularly with the way its offense has looked over the last several weeks. With the Commanders on the road and starting their backup quarterback, it's hard to do anything but take the Chiefs, even laying the points.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Commanders 13
