Chiefs vs. Lions prediction, odds, start time: 2025 Week 6 Sunday Night Football picks from proven model

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) are set to host the Detroit Lions (4-1) in NFL Week 6 action on 'Sunday Night Football.' Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are off to a bumpy start this season, and are coming off of a disappointing 31-28 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. Meanwhile, Jared Goff and the Lions have won four straight since falling to the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, most recently topping the Cincinnati Bengals 37-24. Kansas City has a clean injury report, while Detroit has ruled seven players out and lists safety Brian Branch (ankle), safety Kerby Joseph (knee) and receiver Kalif Raymond (neck) as questionable. 

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. After opening at -3, Kansas City is now a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Chiefs odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 51.5, up three points from the opener. Before making any Chiefs vs. Lions picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 41-21 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Lions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Lions vs. Chiefs on 'Sunday Night Football':

Why the Lions can cover

In addition to being 4-1-0 ATS this season, Detroit has covered the spread in 52 of its past 74 games (52-21-1) since the start of the 2021 season. The Lions currently lead the league with 34.8 average points per game thanks to the plethora of offensive weapons Goff has at his disposal. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both averaging over 60 rushing yards per game and will face a Chiefs defense that allows 4.9 yards per carry. The Lions' last trip to Arrowhead ended in an upset, covering the spread as 4-point favorites in that 2023 meeting. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 2-3-0 ATS this season, but it's hard to bet against a team that has gone 32-10 at home since 2020. Mahomes threw four touchdowns at Arrowhead in Week 4, and will go up against a Lions defense that is dealing with injuries. The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, is only allowing 190.2 passing yards per game, and should be enough to slow a hot Detroit offense that will have Amon-Ra St. Brown (wrist) in the lineup. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Chiefs vs. Lions picks

For Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 6, the model is leaning under the total, and also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Lions vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Lions spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 41-21 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.