Bengals vs. Steelers prediction, odds, time: 2025 NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football picks by proven model

An old-school AFC North rivalry kicks off NFL Week 7 with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Cincinnati Bengals on 'Thursday Night Football.' Pittsburgh (4-1) has won three straight, including a 23-9 victory over Cleveland on Sunday, and the Steelers are 2-0 on the road this season. Cincinnati (2-4) has lost four in a row since losing Joe Burrow to injury, and the Bengals suffered a 27-18 loss to Green Bay in Week 6. These teams split their two matchups last season, with the road team winning each game.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh has won each of its last three trips to Cincy. The latest Bengals vs. Steelers odds have Pittsburgh as the 5.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points is 42.5. Before making any Steelers vs. Bengals picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 42-25 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Now, the model has zeroed in on Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Steelers vs. Bengals:

Why the Steelers can cover

Pittsburgh has found its groove, not only winning three straight games but also covering in all three after beginning the year 0-2 against the spread (ATS). Aaron Rodgers' 105.4 passer rating is the sixth-highest of his career, and of the five years in which he had a better rating, he won NFL MVP in four of them. Rodgers also has the third-highest completion percentage and touchdown rate of his career, while his pairing with DK Metcalf has hit its stride. The former Seahawk has touchdown receptions in four straight games, as he's just one touchdown catch away from matching his total from last season (five).

The Steelers' +7 turnover differential is the second-best in the league, and even if they don't notch a takeaway, the defense can still produce elite performances. That's what occurred on Sunday as Pittsburgh's nine points allowed to Cleveland were the fewest the Steelers have given up all year. Another dominant defensive effort can be expected on Thursday versus a Cincinnati team which ranks in the bottom four in the key stats of points scored, yards gained, rushing offense and passing offense. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Bengals can cover

Cincinnati is coming off a road loss to Green Bay, but there were some promising signs for the Bengals. One is that the team covered, after losing three straight ATS, and another was the performance of Joe Flacco, just days after being acquired by the team. Flacco provided a spark for the offense as he had two touchdown passes and no turnovers, compared to Jake Browning, who failed to have more touchdowns than turnovers in any of his four games. Ja'Marr Chase had a 10-94-1 stat line as his 12th career game with 10-plus catches and a touchdown are now tied for fourth-most in NFL history.

Cincy is a perfect 4 for 4 in red-zone scoring over their last two games, and it ranks second in the NFL in red-zone conversion percentage this season. That could be a bad omen for Pittsburgh, as its defense isn't quite on par with prior seasons. The Steelers are 26th in total defense, 27th in passing defense and haven't experienced much recent success in flustering Flacco. The 40-year-old has played turnover-free ball versus the Steelers over his last three games versus them. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Steelers vs. Bengals picks

For the NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football game of Bengals vs. Steelers, the model is leaning Over the total, projecting 46 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Steelers vs. Bengals, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Steelers spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 42-25 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.