The Thunder and Spurs have been slugging it out in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, and now OKC has San Antonio on the ropes entering Thursday's Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. The top-seeded and defending NBA champion Thunder bounced back from a terrible Game 4 loss with a 127-114 victory on Tuesday to take a 3-2 series lead. OKC got a ton of production from its supporting players again, as league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points but Alex Caruso had 22 and Jared McCain added 20 in Tuesday's victory. San Antonio star Victor Wembanyama was held to 20 points, with 12 coming at the free-throw line as he was 4-of-15 shooting. The winner of this series will face the Knicks in the 2026 NBA Finals.
Tip-off at at Frost Bank Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. San Antonio is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Spurs odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 218.5. Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) both missed Tuesday's game, and Mitchell is out again while Williams is questionable and unlikely to go. The Spurs have reported no injuries.
The Spurs aim to become the first team since 2018 to rally from a 3-2 deficit and win a conference finals series, and we have pored over the Thunder vs. Spurs odds from FanDuel to find the best bets for Game 6. For these picks and others, including NBA player prop bets, you can consult the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times.
The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
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NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Thursday, May 28
- Thunder money line
- Under 219.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists
Thunder money line
After a couple of poor shooting nights for the Thunder, they took off in Game 5 and never looked back. Gilgeous-Alexander hit a series high with his 32 points, and Caruso and McCain weren't the only ones with big contributions. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both had double-doubles, combining for 28 points and 26 rebounds. OKC hit 14 of 32 3-point tries (44%), with McCain and Caruso hitting seven of 17. The SportsLine model is leaning toward the Thunder for value. They win in 45% of its simulations and cover the spread 50.1% of the time, but with a plus-money payout, the OKC money line the best play.
Under 218.5
Elimination games always bring out even more nerves and sometimes make teams cautious, so the model is projecting well Under 215 combined points, with Under 218.5 hitting 60.2% of the time and getting a 'B' grade. The Spurs are 46-36 to the Under this season, including 27-21 to the Under at home. Both teams have been shaky shooting the ball at times, with San Antonio shooting 40% in Game 5 and both going below that in Game 4. With the Spurs facing elimination but OKC playing in hostile territory -- not to mention the strong defenses on both sides -- the teams could struggle to get shots to fall in Game 6.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists
The two-time reigning league MVP stepped up in a big way in Game 5, scoring 32 points, adding nine assists, two steals and a blocked shot. Now, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, the Spurs will be making it even more of a point to hold him in check. It won't be easy, but he has had some problems making plays in this series, with Stephon Castle and others forcing him work hard for everything. Gilgeous-Alexander has only gone Under this number in four of 13 playoff games, but the SportsLine props model expects him to come up short of this line in San Antonio. The model is projecting him for 6.5 assists in Game 6.
