The Oklahoma City Thunder aim to take a 3-1 lead in the NBA Western Conference Finals in Sunday's Game 4, while the San Antonio Spurs are hoping home-court advantage helps them even things back up at 2-2. Game 1 went to double overtime, with the Spurs taking a 122-115 victory, but the Thunder have won the past two games by an average of 12 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET, and Game 4 is a pivotal one for both teams. San Antonio is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Spurs odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Over/Under for total points scored is set at 218.5.
Victor Wembanyama has been strong for the Spurs, scoring 41 points and pulling down 24 rebounds in Game 1 and averaging 29.3 points in the series. He just hasn't had the backing that league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had with OKC. SGA is averaging 26.7 points, and players like Alex Caruso (31 points in Game 1) and Jared McCain (24 in Game 3) have stepped up. San Antonio has leaned on its top five or six guys, but it might need someone unexpected to get more involved in Game 4.
We've taken a deep dive into the Thunder vs. Spurs odds and found the NBA best bets for Sunday's Game 4, using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons.
The model entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Check out the FanDuel promo code before placing bets on the NBA Playoffs on Sunday.
NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Sunday, May 24
- Thunder money line
- Victor Wembanyama Over 25.5 points
- Chet Homgren Over 22.5 points + assists + rebounds
Thunder money line
The model backed the Thunder on Friday, and it's doing the same for Sunday, with OKC winning Game 4 in 56% of simulations. It's rare that the Thunder are underdogs, even on the road, and the model is all over that value. The reigning champs have used their mix of star power with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and great depth pieces to overwhelm the Spurs each of the last two games, and the model expects the Thunder to return home for Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead.
Victor Wembanyama Over 25.5 points
Wemby has, unsurprisingly, been the focal point of the Spurs' offense this series, and he's gone Over this line in two of the first three games. With San Antonio staring down a potential 3-1 series deficit, you just know that the team will do whatever it takes to get the star big man the ball as much as possible. The model has Wembanyama projected for 26.9 points on Sunday.
Chet Holmgren Over 22.5 points + assists + rebounds
Holmgren has had an interesting series, but he's yet to clear 22.5 points + assists + rebounds. The model expects that to change in Game 4, though, with a projection of 22.7 points + assists + rebounds. Holmgren had eight points and eight rebounds in Game 1, and while his scoring increased to 13 and 14 points the next two games, he pulled down just seven combined rebounds in Games 2 and 3. He has three assists over the past two games, and the model projects him for 1.4 in Game 4.
