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The Philadelphia 76ers return home on the ropes as they trail the New York Knicks 2-0 in their second-round series in this season's NBA Playoffs. New York has won five straight after falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round as the Knicks aim to return to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row. Over in the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host Game 3 after getting blown out by the San Antonio Spurs 133-95 in Game 2, evening the series at 1-1. 

With two critical Game 3 matchups on tap for Friday, we're going to look at the top picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times before issuing its top picks and NBA best bets. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Here, we break down the model's top picks for Friday's two-game slate, including a money line pick, an Over/Under bet and a pair of player prop bets. Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bettors can also combine two or more of the model's best bets into a parlay bet at FanDuel for a potentially greater profit.

See the FanDuel promo code for a new-user offer before placing any NBA Playoffs bets on Friday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Friday, May 8

Knicks money line vs. 76ers

The Knicks have been on an incredible roll this postseason. After losing Games 2 and 3 to the Hawks in the first round, they've won five in a row by an average margin of 28.2 points per victory. This came after the Knicks dropped those two games each by a single point. The model expects New York to keep rolling on Friday, as the visiting side wins in 66% of simulations, good for an 'A' grade.

Karl-Anthony Towns Under 5.5 assists

New York's big man has been stellar in the assists department this postseason, averaging 6.1 per game and going Over 5.5 assists in five of eight games. In fact, those five Overs have come across the Knicks' last five games played. The model doesn't think that trend will continue in Game 3, though, as Towns is projected to have just 3.2 assists on Friday. 

Spurs-Timberwolves Under 216.5

Both teams have leaned heavily to the Under this year, with San Antonio 39-50 to the Under and Minnesota 40-50 to the Under. Game 1 finished Under this line, though Game 2 cleared it because of a 133-point performance by the Spurs. The model projects another Under between these two sides, as the Under hits in 57.2% of simulations. 

Victor Wembanyama Under 41.5 points +rebounds + assists

Wembanyama hasn't cleared this line in either of the Spurs' first two games against the Timberwolves, coming up well short with PRA totals of 31 and 36. Wemby is averaging 32.33 PRA per game this postseason, though he did play just 12 minutes in Game 2 last round because of a concussion. Even if you take that game out, the star big man is averaging 36.8 PRA per game this postseason while going Under in each of his last three games played. The model projects Wembanyama to have 38.0 PRA in Game 3.