Spencer Jones is the Yankees' biggest prospect, literally: He has major power and a major flaw

Friday night the New York Yankees will debut one of their biggest prospects, literally. Outfielder Spencer Jones, who is listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 lbs., has been called up to make his MLB debut. Jones will replace Jasson Domínguez, who suffered a shoulder injury when he crashed into the outfield wall Thursday. Domínguez is expected to miss several weeks.

"The concussion testing so far is negative, so that's good. We'll obviously continue to monitor that," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about Domínguez's injury. "He's got a low grade -- minor -- AC sprain of his left shoulder. That'll put him on the IL and that could be a few weeks. That's what we're dealing with right now."

Jones, 24, did not rank among our top 100 prospects or our top 20 AL East prospects entering the season, though he is not an unknown. The No. 25 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft finished second in the minors with 35 home runs last year despite missing a month with an intercostal injury. He was one home run behind Ryan Ward (Los Angeles Dodgers) despite 146 fewer plate appearances.

This season Jones is hitting .258/.366/.592 in 33 Triple-A games. His 11 home runs are fifth most in the minors. Jones is in the middle of a hot streak too, having blasted six homers in his last eight games. That includes a 117.4 mph rocket earlier this week that ranks as the second hardest hit ball in the minors this year. Only two balls have been hit harder in the big leagues.

"He shows up every day with the same attitude," Yankees utility man Max Schuemann, who played with Jones in Triple-A, said Thursday (via MLB.com). "Whether it's a good day or a bad day, it doesn't matter for that guy."

The major drawback with Jones is the swing-and-miss in his game. He's struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, a rate that would lead MLB most years, and Jones is doing it in Triple-A. He's made contact with 71.1% of pitches in the strike zone. That would be second lowest among qualified MLB hitters, and again, Jones is doing that in Triple-A.

Things are trending in the right direction, though. In his first 16 games, Jones had a 40.0% strikeout rate and a ghastly 56.3% in-zone contact rate. In his last 17 games, it's a more manageable 25.0% strikeout rate and 74.7% in-zone contact rate. Jones will always whiff a bunch given his size. Can he get his strikeout rate out of fatal flaw territory and just be below average?

"The last three or four weeks have been a lot of consistent at-bats," Boone said about Jones (via MLB.com). "The power has been there. Less swing and miss, which is some of the things we were seeing a little bit in spring training. After that second week in Triple-A where he struggled a little bit with swing and miss, he's cleaned that up."

It won't be a soft landing for Jones in his MLB debut. The Yankees are scheduled to face Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski on Friday. Misiorowski has 59 strikeouts in 38 innings this season, and his 38.1% strikeout rate leads qualified pitchers. Dylan Cease is a distant second with a 33.7% strikeout rate. So yeah, Jones will have his hands full in his first big-league game.

Here is what you need about Jones leading into his MLB debut, and what to expect during his time with the Yankees.

He's modeled his toe tap after Ohtani's

The poor contact rates are not due to a lack of effort. Jones has changed his batting stance and his swing several times over the years in an effort to find something that works and feels comfortable. This year's big adjustment is eliminating his old leg kick and using a simple toe tap. Jones said Shohei Ohtani was the inspiration for that change.

"He's a great reference of a really good mover with a great swing," Jones said in spring training about copying Ohtani's top toe (via MLB.com). "He's one of those guys that I look at with some of the stuff he does, and I try to apply it in whichever way I can."

Copying Ohtani's toe tap and hitting like Ohtani are two very different things. Jones is trying, though. He's well aware that he strikes out a lot and has issues making contact, particularly in the zone, and he's searching for ways to close that hole. If nothing else, the toe tap cuts down on pre-pitch movement and gives Jones a better chance to be on time with his swing.

"The minute he puts that foot down with that little toe tap, he's ready to hit. They might have gotten him with a lot of high heaters in the past, or even last season. I think that's just going to help him," Aaron Judge said in spring training (via MLB.com). "He doesn't have a big leg kick and doesn't have to worry about trying to get that down ... It's really going to be a game-changer for him."

Power the other way

As a left-handed hitter, Jones will undoubtedly benefit from Yankee Stadium's short right field porch, especially since nearly 70% of his batted balls have been in the air the last two years. The MLB average is around 58% non-grounders. Jones is not a big pull hitter, however. He's had a 37% pull rate the last two years, below the 42% MLB average for left-handed batters.

Jones has hit 30 home runs in 100 Triple-A games the last two years. Here's where those home runs landed:

Left-center field is Death Valley in Yankee Stadium. That's where you don't want to hit the ball. At least not if you're looking to hit a home run. That said, Jones has the power to hit the ball out of any part of any ballpark. His contact quality numbers (exit velocity, hard-hit rate, etc.) are off the charts. They're among the best in the minors and on par with top big league power hitters.

Inevitably, Jones will mis-hit a ball that would be a routine fly ball in most ballparks that instead lands in the first row of the short porch. And, inevitably, Jones will hit a rocket to left-center field that would leave many ballparks, but instead gets swallowed up by Death Valley. Yankee Stadium gives more than it takes, but it definitely takes, particularly in left-center field.

Despite being a left-handed hitter, Jones is not optimized for Yankee Stadium because his natural stroke is the other way into the left-center field gap. He has plenty of power and can make that work, but this is not a player who figures to come up and pepper the short porch with 330-foot home runs. Jones is at his best when he stays back and goes to the opposite field.

He's not just a home run hitter

Jones is similar to Judge in that he's a very good athlete period, and especially for his size. This isn't a lumbering home run hitter who doesn't do much else when he's not hitting home runs. Jones is a solid defender and a viable center fielder, and he has enough speed that he's gone 104 for 133 stealing bases since 2023. That's a strong 78% success rate.

"It's a large man who hits the ball very far," Cody Bellinger said about Jones on Thursday (via MLB.com). "Honestly, he's a freak athlet,e too. I didn't know (about) the speed. He's very athletic and moves well. He's just a good baseball player."

Although I wouldn't expect Jones to win Gold Gloves or steal 30-plus bags in the big leagues, he has secondary skills and is much more than a home run hitter. Jones will help the Yankees in the field and on the bases, which means even when he's in an ugly strikeout-filled slump, he'll be worth having in the lineup because of all the other ways he can contribute.

What to expect

Lots of strikeouts, some tape measure home runs, plus a few stolen bases and defensive highlights. That about sums it up. Jones will replace Domínguez, who was replacing Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is on the injured list with a calf strain and has begun hitting, but he has yet to run and really test the calf. Stanton is likely still a week away, if not more. Jones will get some runway here.

Although he's played most of his career in center, Jones has played some right and left fields. When Stanton is out, the Yankees like to give Judge regular turns through the DH spot. When that is the case, Jones in left with Grisham in center and Bellinger in right is the most likely defensive alignment. Jones could see time in all three outfield spots and at DH though, for sure.

The Yankees have the AL's best record (26-12) and baseball's best run differential (+81). They're second in runs per game (5.61) and fourth in OPS+ (118). The Yankees already have a great team and a great offense. Jones will be asked to contribute down in the lineup. That's it. He's coming up as a complementary player, not as a savior, and that's the best way to debut a prospect.