The 300 home run club has a new member. On Tuesday night, Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani slugged a leadoff home run against the Rockies (COL 4, LA 3) for his 300th homer in MLB. Ohtani is the 168th player in MLB history with 300 homers. Including his time with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, his career total is now 348 home runs.
"It was quite the homer. It was squared up, got out in a hurry. And 300, he got there pretty quickly for us. I just marvel at him every day," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the game (via MLB.com). "... He just had a birthday. Still young, still strong. So I definitely think 500 is in his future."
Ohtani turned 32 this past Sunday. Getting to 500 career homers would be a heavy lift, but it is certainly not impossible, plus Ohtani has made a career of doing what seems impossible. Twenty-one players have hit at least 200 home runs after turning 32, led by Barry Bonds' 402. Nelson Cruz (314) and Hank Aaron (313) also hit 300 homers after turning 32.
Tuesday's homer was Ohtani's 20th of the season. He is on pace to hit 35 homers this year after hitting 55 last year and 54 the year before that. Ohtani is signed through 2033, which would be his age-38 season. The path to 500 looks something like this:
| Season age | Season HR | Career HR after season | |
|---|---|---|---|
2026 | 31 | 35 | 315 |
2027 | 32 | 35 | 350 |
2028 | 33 | 32 | 382 |
2029 | 34 | 30 | 412 |
2030 | 35 | 28 | 440 |
2031 | 36 | 25 | 465 |
2032 | 37 | 23 | 488 |
2033 | 38 | 18 | 506 |
That is a very gentle decline, at least for a normal baseball player, something Ohtani most certainly is not. One or two more huge years, or a molten hot streak down the stretch this year, would change his long-term home run outlook considerably. At the same time, a major injury would put a dent in Ohtani's chances to reach 500 career homers.
There is no precedent for Ohtani, who performs at such a high level on both sides of the ball. It stands to reason the workload will eventually take a toll and he'll slow down -- to manage fatigue, the Dodgers have had Ohtani out of the lineup as a hitter when he pitches several times this year -- but who really knows? Ohtani has done nothing but defy expectations.
Only four players reached 300 career home runs in fewer games than Ohtani. This only includes games in which Ohtani took a plate appearance, not games when he pitched but did not hit:
Fewest games to 300 HR
1. Aaron Judge: 953
2. Ralph Kiner: 1,086
3. Ryan Howard: 1,091
4. Juan Gonzalez: 1,093
5. Shohei Ohtani: 1,101
Ohtani went 1 for 4 with the home run and a walk Tuesday. He is hitting .295/.409/.541 with 20 home runs this season. As a pitcher, he's thrown 85 ⅔ innings with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 14 starts. Ohtani's 1.79 ERA is second lowest to Jacob Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA among pitchers with at least 80 innings, though he is 7 ⅓ innings short of qualifying for the ERA title.
With his 300 homers, Ohtani is far and away the all-time MLB home run leader among Japanese-born players. Hideki Matsui is a distant second with 175 MLB homers.
